Técnicas estatísticas utilizadas em climatologia geográfica: diagnóstico e propostas
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Data
2016-03-08
Autores
Silvestre, Miriam Rodrigues [UNESP]
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Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
Essa tese aborda o uso da Estatística na Climatologia Geográfica, através da identificação das técnicas mais usuais e possíveis falhas em sua aplicação em análises geográficas do clima, bem como sugestões de alternativas para as diversas situações e necessidades, de acordo com as possibilidades. As fontes de informações utilizadas foram trabalhos apresentados no Simpósio Brasileiro de Climatologia Geográfica (SBCG) e artigos publicados na Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (RBClima). Entre os objetivos para os quais se aplicam técnicas estatísticas foram apresentadas técnicas para: preenchimento de falhas, análise exploratória de dados, escolha de anos padrão, análise de tendências em séries com modelos de regressão, testes para análise de tendência, rupturas e consistência de séries, correlação entre duas séries, modelos estatísticos para relacionar uma variável dependente com duas ou mais variáveis independentes, interpolação de dados no espaço, definição de regiões homogêneas, classificação climática e vulnerabilidade socioambiental. Concluiu-se que ainda há algumas aplicações incorretas das técnicas estatísticas e foram realizadas sugestões de outras técnicas que poderiam ser utilizadas. Espera-se que essa tese possa contribuir para a aplicação da Estatística e facilitar a interação entre o geógrafo e o estatístico no desenvolvimento de pesquisas na área de Climatologia Geográfica, bem como na Geografia do Clima.
This thesis discussed the use of Statistics in the Geographical Climatology, by identifying the most common technics and possible failures in its application in geographical climate analyzes and suggests alternatives to the different situations and needs, according to the possibilities. The sources of information used were papers presented at the Brazilian Symposium of Geographical Climatology (SBCG) and articles published in the Brazilian Journal of Climatology (RBClima). Among the objectives for which they apply statistical techniques, were discussed techniques for: gap filling, exploratory data analysis, pattern year choice, trend analysis in series with regression models, tests for trend analysis, ruptures and consistency of series, correlation between two series, statistical models to relate a dependent variable with two or more independent variables, data interpolation in space, definition of homogeneous regions, climatic classification and socio-environmental vulnerability. It was concluded that there is still some incorrect application of statistical techniques and were suggested that other techniques could be used. It is hoped that this thesis can contribute to the application of Statistics and facilitate interaction between the geographer and statistician in the development of research in the field of Geographical Climatology and Climate in Geography.
This thesis discussed the use of Statistics in the Geographical Climatology, by identifying the most common technics and possible failures in its application in geographical climate analyzes and suggests alternatives to the different situations and needs, according to the possibilities. The sources of information used were papers presented at the Brazilian Symposium of Geographical Climatology (SBCG) and articles published in the Brazilian Journal of Climatology (RBClima). Among the objectives for which they apply statistical techniques, were discussed techniques for: gap filling, exploratory data analysis, pattern year choice, trend analysis in series with regression models, tests for trend analysis, ruptures and consistency of series, correlation between two series, statistical models to relate a dependent variable with two or more independent variables, data interpolation in space, definition of homogeneous regions, climatic classification and socio-environmental vulnerability. It was concluded that there is still some incorrect application of statistical techniques and were suggested that other techniques could be used. It is hoped that this thesis can contribute to the application of Statistics and facilitate interaction between the geographer and statistician in the development of research in the field of Geographical Climatology and Climate in Geography.
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Palavras-chave
Climatologia estatística, Climatologia geográfica, Técnicas estatísticas, Statistical climatology, Geographical climatology, Statistical techniques