Análise da distribuição espaço-temporal de dengue e da infestação larvária no município de Tupã, Estado de São Paulo
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Data
2010-04-01
Autores
Barbosa, Gerson Laurindo
Lourenço, Roberto Wagner [UNESP]
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Editor
Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT
Resumo
INTRODUÇÃO: O vírus da dengue é transmitido pela picada do mosquito Aedes aegypti e, o atual programa de controle não atinge o objetivo de impedir sua transmissão. Este trabalho objetivou analisar a relação entre a distribuição espaço-temporal de casos de dengue e os indicadores larvários no município de Tupã, de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2007. MÉTODOS: Foram construídos indicadores larvários por quarteirão e totalidade do município. Utilizou-se o método cross-lagged correlation para avaliar a correlação entre casos de dengue e indicadores larvários. Foi utilizado estimador kernel para análise espacial. RESULTADOS: A correlação cruzada defasada entre casos de dengue e indicadores larvários foi significativa. Os mapas do estimador Kernel da positividade de recipientes indicam uma distribuição heterogênea, ao longo do período estudado. Nos dois anos de transmissão, a epidemia ocorreu em diferentes regiões. CONCLUSÕES: Não ficou evidenciada relação espacial entre infestação larvária e ocorrência de dengue. A incorporação de técnicas de geoprocessamento e análise espacial no programa, desde que utilizados imediatamente após a realização das atividades, podem contribuir com as ações de controle, indicando os aglomerados espaciais de maior incidência.
INTRODUCTION: The dengue virus is transmitted by the bite of the mosquito Aedes aegypti and the current control program has not met the target of preventing its transmission. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between the spatial-temporal distribution of dengue cases and the larval indices in the municipality of Tupã between January 2004 and December 2007. METHODS: Larval indices were built up block by block and for the entire municipality. We used the cross-lagged correlation method to assess the correlation between dengue cases and larval indices. The kernel estimator was used for spatial analysis. RESULTS: The cross-lagged correlation between dengue cases and larval indices was significant. The kernel estimator maps of positive findings among recipients indicated heterogeneous distribution over the course of the study period. Over two years of transmission, the epidemic occurred in different regions. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of a relationship between larval infestation and dengue occurrence. Incorporation of geoprocessing techniques and spatial analysis into the program, if used immediately after completion of activities, might contribute towards the control actions, thereby indicating spatial agglomerations of higher incidence.
INTRODUCTION: The dengue virus is transmitted by the bite of the mosquito Aedes aegypti and the current control program has not met the target of preventing its transmission. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between the spatial-temporal distribution of dengue cases and the larval indices in the municipality of Tupã between January 2004 and December 2007. METHODS: Larval indices were built up block by block and for the entire municipality. We used the cross-lagged correlation method to assess the correlation between dengue cases and larval indices. The kernel estimator was used for spatial analysis. RESULTS: The cross-lagged correlation between dengue cases and larval indices was significant. The kernel estimator maps of positive findings among recipients indicated heterogeneous distribution over the course of the study period. Over two years of transmission, the epidemic occurred in different regions. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of a relationship between larval infestation and dengue occurrence. Incorporation of geoprocessing techniques and spatial analysis into the program, if used immediately after completion of activities, might contribute towards the control actions, thereby indicating spatial agglomerations of higher incidence.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Aedes aegypti, Dengue, Geoprocessamento, Análise espacial, Aedes aegypti, Dengue, Geoprocessing, Spatial analysis
Como citar
Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical. Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT, v. 43, n. 2, p. 145-151, 2010.