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Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

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Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde

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The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

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Cochliomyia macellaria, Chrysomya megacephala, Chrysomya putoria, population dynamics, sensibility analysis

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Inglês

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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde, v. 91, n. 5, p. 641-648, 1996.

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