Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

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dc.contributor.authorLapola, David Montenegro
dc.contributor.authorSchaldach, Ruediger
dc.contributor.authorAlcamo, Joseph
dc.contributor.authorBondeau, Alberte
dc.contributor.authorMsangi, Siwa
dc.contributor.authorPriess, Joerg A.
dc.contributor.authorSilvestrini, Rafaella
dc.contributor.authorSoares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira
dc.contributor.institutionUniv Kassel
dc.contributor.institutionPotsdam Inst Climate Impact Res
dc.contributor.institutionInt Food Policy Res Inst
dc.contributor.institutionUFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
dc.date.accessioned2013-09-30T18:48:35Z
dc.date.accessioned2014-05-20T13:57:45Z
dc.date.available2013-09-30T18:48:35Z
dc.date.available2014-05-20T13:57:45Z
dc.date.issued2011-05-01
dc.description.abstractClimate change scenarios vary considerably over the Amazon region, with an extreme scenario projecting a dangerous (from the human perspective) increase of 3.8 degrees C in temperature and 30% reduction in precipitation by 2050. The impacts of such climate change on Amazonian land-use dynamics, agricultural production, and deforestation rates are still to be determined. In this study, the authors make a first attempt to assess these impacts through a systemic approach, using a spatially explicit modeling framework to project crop yield and land-use/land-cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050. The results show that, without any adaptation, climate change may exert a critical impact on the yields of crops commonly cultivated in the Amazon (e. g., soybean yields are reduced by 44% in the worst-case scenario). Therefore, following baseline projections on crop and livestock production, a scenario of severe regional climate change would cause additional deforestation of 181 000 km(2) (+20%) in the Amazon and 240 000 km(2) (+273%) in the Cerrado compared to a scenario of moderate climate change. Putting an end to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon forest by 2020 (and of the Cerrado by 2025) would require either a reduction of 26%-40% in livestock production until 2050 or a doubling of average livestock density from 0.74 to 1.46 head per hectare. These results suggest that (i) climate change can affect land use in ways not previously explored, such as the reduction of yields entailing further deforestation, and (ii) there is a need for an integrated/multidisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon.en
dc.description.affiliationUniv Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, Kassel, Germany
dc.description.affiliationPotsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany
dc.description.affiliationInt Food Policy Res Inst, Washington, DC 20036 USA
dc.description.affiliationUFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Leipzig, Germany
dc.description.affiliationUniv Fed Minas Gerais, Ctr Sensoriamento Remoto, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
dc.description.sponsorshipInternational Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany
dc.description.sponsorshipConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
dc.description.sponsorshipGordon and Betty Moore Foundation
dc.description.sponsorshipClimate and Land Use Alliance
dc.format.extent29
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010EI333.1
dc.identifier.citationEarth Interactions. Washington: Amer Geophysical Union, v. 15, p. 29, 2011.
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/2010EI333.1
dc.identifier.fileWOS000291148900001.pdf
dc.identifier.issn1087-3562
dc.identifier.lattes8967344458198707
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/20582
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000291148900001
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherAmer Geophysical Union
dc.relation.ispartofEarth Interactions
dc.relation.ispartofjcr1.884
dc.relation.ispartofsjr0,927
dc.rights.accessRightsAcesso restrito
dc.sourceWeb of Science
dc.subjectTropical agricultureen
dc.subjectCattle ranchingen
dc.subjectClimate change adaptationen
dc.subjectIntegrated assessmenten
dc.subjectCerradoen
dc.titleImpacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazonen
dc.typeArtigo
dcterms.licensehttp://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/authors/journal-and-bams-authors/author-resources/copyright-information/
dcterms.rightsHolderAmer Geophysical Union
unesp.author.lattes8967344458198707
unesp.campusUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Instituto de Biociências, Rio Claropt

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Artigos - Ecologia - IBRC