Análise espacial da criminalidade em uma grande metrópole: um estudo de caso para o município de São Paulo
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Data
2016-10-28
Autores
Durlo, Raul de Sá [UNESP]
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
Este trabalho tem como objetivo inferir sobre características e padrões espaços-temporais da criminalidade no contexto de uma grande cidade. O crime na sociedade é um problema complexo, que abrange um grande leque de interpretações e que passou a incorporar a agenda de pesquisa em economia principalmente após o trabalho seminal de Gary S. Becker (1968). De modo mais recente, é observado um crescente interesse nos aspectos geográficos da análise da criminalidade. Particularmente interessante é o fenômeno da criminalidade urbana, que em grandes centros apresentam padrões e dissimilaridades intra-regionais não negligenciáveis. A cidade de São Paulo é uma das grandes metrópoles mundiais, com quase 12 milhões de habitantes e com índices de criminalidade que impõem altos custos à qualidade de vida e ao bem-estar de seus habitantes. Neste trabalho, o fenômeno da criminalidade foi investigado do ponto de vista histórico e teórico, apontando os principais parâmetros para se interpretar o crime nas cidades. Posteriormente, discutiu-se a criminalidade no contexto do município de São Paulo com ênfase na década de 2000. Na abordagem empírica, as ocorrências de crimes contra pessoa e contra o patrimônio, registradas nos anos de 2003 e de 2013 nos distritos do município, foram relacionadas a varáveis socioeconômicas e de características do ambiente urbano por meio da metodologia SUR-espacial. Para comparabilidade entre Distritos Municipais e Distritos Policiais, foi formulada uma metodologia de agregação que os compatibilizassem em termos espaciais. Para detecção de não-aleatoriedade espacial nas ocorrências criminais foi calculada a estatística I de Moran. Os resultados corroboram com a hipótese de que o espaço urbano é importante para explicar a criminalidade em diversos aspectos, como por exemplo, as formas de uso do solo urbano, as condições de moradias e a proporção de empregos formais por moradores nos bairros.
The aim of this study is to infer about the crime and its spatial-temporal patterns and characteristics in the context of a big city. The crime in society is a complex issue, which covers a wide range of interpretations and began to incorporate the research agenda in economics especially after the seminal work of Gary S. Becker (1968). Recently, there has been a growing interest on geographical aspects in the analysis of crime. Particularly interesting is the urban crime phenomenon, which in large centers its patterns and intra-regional dissimilarities are not negligible. The city of São Paulo, in Brazil, is one of the world's great metropolises, with almost 12 million inhabitants and crime rates that impose high costs on the quality of life and well being of its inhabitants. In this study, the crime phenomenon was investigated by its historical and theoretical approach pointing out the main developments that account for interpreting the crime in cities. Thereafter, the crime was discussed in the São Paulo city context, with emphasis on 2000s. On the empirical approach, the criminal occurences against the person and the property in the years 2003 and 2013 by city districts were related with socioeconomic variables and urban environment features using the spatial-SUR methodology. In order to compare Municipal Districts with Police Districts, an aggregation methodology was formulated to merge them in spatial terms. Moreover, Moran I statistical was calculated for detection of spatial non-randomness on the criminal activities. The results corroborate the hypothesis that the urban space is important to explain the crime in many aspects, such as the forms of urban land use, the conditions of housing and the proportion of formal employment by residents in neighborhoods.
The aim of this study is to infer about the crime and its spatial-temporal patterns and characteristics in the context of a big city. The crime in society is a complex issue, which covers a wide range of interpretations and began to incorporate the research agenda in economics especially after the seminal work of Gary S. Becker (1968). Recently, there has been a growing interest on geographical aspects in the analysis of crime. Particularly interesting is the urban crime phenomenon, which in large centers its patterns and intra-regional dissimilarities are not negligible. The city of São Paulo, in Brazil, is one of the world's great metropolises, with almost 12 million inhabitants and crime rates that impose high costs on the quality of life and well being of its inhabitants. In this study, the crime phenomenon was investigated by its historical and theoretical approach pointing out the main developments that account for interpreting the crime in cities. Thereafter, the crime was discussed in the São Paulo city context, with emphasis on 2000s. On the empirical approach, the criminal occurences against the person and the property in the years 2003 and 2013 by city districts were related with socioeconomic variables and urban environment features using the spatial-SUR methodology. In order to compare Municipal Districts with Police Districts, an aggregation methodology was formulated to merge them in spatial terms. Moreover, Moran I statistical was calculated for detection of spatial non-randomness on the criminal activities. The results corroborate the hypothesis that the urban space is important to explain the crime in many aspects, such as the forms of urban land use, the conditions of housing and the proportion of formal employment by residents in neighborhoods.
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Palavras-chave
Crime urbano, São Paulo, Econometria espacial, Economia do crime, Spatial Seemingly Unrelated Regression, Urban crime, Spatial econometrics, Economics of crime