Aplicação do modelo WEAP em cenários de alocação de água na Unidade de Gerenciamento de Recursos Hídricos Baixo Pardo/Grande
Data
2021-02-17
Autores
Rezende, Bruna Nogueira
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Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
A água é o recurso primordial para toda a forma de vida, assim como é essencial para a agricultura em muitas regiões do mundo. Os desafios para uma gestão eficiente do uso sustentável da água diante do crescimento populacional estão sendo enfrentados gradualmente, no entanto os países em desenvolvimento encontram dificuldades para lidar com a falta de infraestrutura, aumento da demanda por água, solucionar os problemas de escassez e gerenciar os conflitos entre os usuários de água. A agricultura é o uso da terra dominante na Unidade de Gerenciamento de Recursos Hídricos (UGRHI) Baixo Pardo/Grande, exibindo uma taxa de crescimento expressivo ao longo dos anos para a área cultivada de cana-de-açúcar, ocupando áreas antes utilizadas como pastagens e culturas tradicionais. Analisar a sustentabilidade dos recursos hídricos considerando os cenários futuros é essencial para o planejamento e gestão da água. Modelos hidrológicos como o WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System), auxilia na análise de cenários futuros e permite analisar a disponibilidade de água atual e futura. Deste modo, o objetivo geral deste estudo foi utilizar o modelo WEAP para simular o comportamento hidrológico dos recursos hídricos e analisar a disponibilidade de água em um trecho da UGRHI Baixo Pardo/Grande, no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Analisou-se as mudanças no uso e cobertura da terra para o período de 1988 a 2019. O modelo foi calibrado (1988-2015) e validado (2016-2019). Cenários futuros foram projetados para o período de 2020 a 2040 considerando o aumento das demandas de água e o aumento de áreas irrigadas. Índices de sustentabilidade foram gerados para cada cenário proposto. Os resultados indicaram que a calha principal do rio Pardo possui boa disponibilidade hídrica para atender as demandas dos setores usuários de água, com a capacidade de conceder novas outorgas.
Water is the primary resource for all forms of life, as well as essential for agriculture in many regions of the world. The challenges for an efficient management of the sustainable use of water in the face of population growth are gradually being faced, however developing countries find it difficult to deal with the lack of infrastructure, increased demand for water, solve scarcity problems and manage conflicts between water users. Agriculture is the dominant land use in the Baixo Pardo /Grande Water Resources Management Unit (UGRHI), showing a significant growth rate over the years for the sugarcane cultivated area, occupying areas previously used as pasture and traditional cultures. Analyzing the sustainability of water resources considering future scenarios is essential for water planning and management. Hydrological models such as WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System), assists in the analysis of future scenarios and allows to analyze the current and future water availability. Thus, the general objective of this study was to use the WEAP model to simulate the hydrological behavior of water resources and to analyze the availability of water in a stretch of the UGRHI Baixo Pardo / Grande, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Changes in land use and land cover for the period from 1988 to 2019 were analyzed. The model was calibrated (1988-2015) and validated (2016-2019). Future scenarios were projected for the period from 2020 to 2040 considering the increase in water demands and the increase in irrigated areas. Sustainability indexes were generated for each proposed scenario. The results indicated that the main gutter of the Pardo River has good water availability to meet the demands of the water user sectors, with the ability to grant new grants.
Water is the primary resource for all forms of life, as well as essential for agriculture in many regions of the world. The challenges for an efficient management of the sustainable use of water in the face of population growth are gradually being faced, however developing countries find it difficult to deal with the lack of infrastructure, increased demand for water, solve scarcity problems and manage conflicts between water users. Agriculture is the dominant land use in the Baixo Pardo /Grande Water Resources Management Unit (UGRHI), showing a significant growth rate over the years for the sugarcane cultivated area, occupying areas previously used as pasture and traditional cultures. Analyzing the sustainability of water resources considering future scenarios is essential for water planning and management. Hydrological models such as WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System), assists in the analysis of future scenarios and allows to analyze the current and future water availability. Thus, the general objective of this study was to use the WEAP model to simulate the hydrological behavior of water resources and to analyze the availability of water in a stretch of the UGRHI Baixo Pardo / Grande, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Changes in land use and land cover for the period from 1988 to 2019 were analyzed. The model was calibrated (1988-2015) and validated (2016-2019). Future scenarios were projected for the period from 2020 to 2040 considering the increase in water demands and the increase in irrigated areas. Sustainability indexes were generated for each proposed scenario. The results indicated that the main gutter of the Pardo River has good water availability to meet the demands of the water user sectors, with the ability to grant new grants.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Gestão de recursos hídricos, Modelagem hidrológica, Aumento de áreas irrigadas, WEAP, Water resources management, Hydrological modeling, Increase in irrigated áreas