Avaliação econômica do manejo florestal sustentável na Amazônia: análise de diferentes cenários
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Data
2023-02-27
Autores
Rocha, Qüinny Soares
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
A Floresta Amazônica é foco da preservação ambiental por fornecer serviços ecossistêmicos para a manutenção da vida no planeta. Assim, o manejo florestal sustentável tem como fundamentação a produção de forma contínua, com o menor impacto na vegetação remanescente, beneficiando as populações locais e gerando retorno econômico para seus investidores. Por se tratar de projetos de longo prazo, com investimentos ao longo do horizonte de planejamento, aliado à instabilidade de produção e de mercado, é desejável que a análise da viabilidade econômica desses projetos englobe essas incertezas e as flexibilidades gerenciais. A análise de opções reais é uma abordagem complementar à análise da viabilidade econômica tradicionalmente aplicada, que considera na sua metodologia as instabilidades presentes nos projetos de investimento, além de valorar as decisões dos gestores. Isso posto, o objetivo foi avaliar se a análise de opções reais agrega valor aos projetos de investimento em manejo florestal sustentável na Floresta Amazônica brasileira. Os dados foram coletados em uma empresa de base florestal com atividade na Floresta Nacional Saracá-Taquera no primeiro ciclo de corte. Primeiramente, foi realizada a análise de viabilidade econômica tradicional e, complementarmente, o cálculo da análise de opções reais. Foram consideradas as variações no preço e produção da madeira em tora, bem como na taxa do custo de oportunidade. A opção de adiamento é exercida por ser mais vantajoso aguardar a obtenção de informações futuras. A opção de abandono e interrupção não são exercidas devido aos cenários otimistas calculados, indicando a continuidade do planejamento inicial. Os projetos de investimento em manejo florestal sustentável na Floresta Amazônica são economicamente viáveis e a análise de opções reais agrega valor aos projetos de investimento, indicando a melhor decisão estratégica.
The Amazon Forest is the focus of environmental preservation for providing ecosystem services for maintaining life on the planet. Thus, sustainable forest management is based on continuous production, with the most negligible impact on the remaining vegetation, benefiting local populations and generating economic returns for its investors Because they are long-term projects, with investments over the planning horizon, combined with production and market instability, it is desirable that the analysis of the economic viability of these projects encompasses these uncertainties and managerial flexibilities. Real options analysis is a complementary approach to the traditionally applied economic viability analysis, which considers in its methodology the instabilities present in investment projects and valuing managers' decisions. That said, the aim was to assess whether the analysis of real options adds value to investment projects in sustainable forest management in the Brazilian Amazon Forest. Data were collected by a forestry-based company with exploration activity in the Saracá-Taquera National Forest in the first cutting cycle. First, the traditional economic viability analysis was carried out, and, in addition, the calculation of the real options analysis. Variations in the price and production of roundwood were considered as the opportunity cost rate. The postponement option is exercised because it is more waiting to obtain future information is more advantageous and interruption options are not exercised due to the calculated optimistic scenarios, indicating the continuity of the initial planning. Investment projects in sustainable forest management in the Amazon Forest are economically viable and the analysis of real options adds value to investment projects, indicating the best strategic decision
The Amazon Forest is the focus of environmental preservation for providing ecosystem services for maintaining life on the planet. Thus, sustainable forest management is based on continuous production, with the most negligible impact on the remaining vegetation, benefiting local populations and generating economic returns for its investors Because they are long-term projects, with investments over the planning horizon, combined with production and market instability, it is desirable that the analysis of the economic viability of these projects encompasses these uncertainties and managerial flexibilities. Real options analysis is a complementary approach to the traditionally applied economic viability analysis, which considers in its methodology the instabilities present in investment projects and valuing managers' decisions. That said, the aim was to assess whether the analysis of real options adds value to investment projects in sustainable forest management in the Brazilian Amazon Forest. Data were collected by a forestry-based company with exploration activity in the Saracá-Taquera National Forest in the first cutting cycle. First, the traditional economic viability analysis was carried out, and, in addition, the calculation of the real options analysis. Variations in the price and production of roundwood were considered as the opportunity cost rate. The postponement option is exercised because it is more waiting to obtain future information is more advantageous and interruption options are not exercised due to the calculated optimistic scenarios, indicating the continuity of the initial planning. Investment projects in sustainable forest management in the Amazon Forest are economically viable and the analysis of real options adds value to investment projects, indicating the best strategic decision
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Floresta Amazônica, manejo florestal sustentável, viabilidade econômica, decisões estratégicas, gerenciamento de projetos, valor presente líquido expandido, Amazon rainforest, sustainable forest management, economic viability, strategic decisions, project management, expanded net present value