Perspectiva para o transporte público por ônibus em 2030: uma análise para cidades de pequeno e médio porte no Brasil
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Data
2020-05-04
Autores
Delgado, Fernanda Camila Martinez
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Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo geral analisar a perspectiva do transporte público por ônibus em 2030 nas cidades de pequeno e médio porte, com enfoque na mobilidade urbana sustentável. Para o desenvolvimento da pesquisa foram traçados quatro objetivos de pesquisa específicos: elaborar projeções para o transporte público por ônibus e desenvolver um questionário; avaliar estas projeções quanto à probabilidade de ocorrência, impacto no setor de transporte público por ônibus e desjabilidade de ocorrência das projeções, através do resultado de um painel de especialistas, utilizando o questionário desenvolvido no item anterior; avaliar a formação de um construto de fatores importantes para o transporte público por ônibus relacionados com a mobilidade urbana sustentável em cidades de pequeno e médio porte brasileiras a partir das variáveis do questionário; selecionar as variáveis que terão maior impacto para o transporte público por ônibus. O questionário foi aplicado a especialistas na área de transporte público urbano (TPU). Para a análise dos dados foram utilizadas as seguintes técnicas: cálculo do grau de concordância, Análise Fatorial Exploratória e Regressão Logística. A análise dos dados apontou 3 projeções que tem maior probabilidade de ocorrência: P6-Os ônibus de TPU, das cidades de pequeno e médio porte serão gradativamente conectados e se comunicarão uns com os outros e com a infraestrutura; P9-O TPU por ônibus será um importante elo na integração com outros modais mais sustentáveis (caminhada, bicicleta, patinete, etc) nas cidades de pequeno e médio porte e P8-A quantidade de automóveis individuais na área das cidades de pequeno e médio porte será reduzida. Os resultados da pesquisa apontam a visão de especialistas sobre temas relacionados à mobilidade urbana sustentável e políticas de mobilidade para o ano de 2030 em cidades de pequeno e médio porte brasileiras, com foco a estabelecer se serão suficientes para impactar de forma robusta na mobilidade urbana sustentável e auxiliar nos objetivos de desenvolvimento sustentável.
This research aimed to analyze the perspective of public bus transport in 2030 in small and medium-sized cities, with a focus on sustainable urban mobility. For the development of the research, four specific research objectives were outlined: to elaborate projections for public transport by bus and to develop a questionnaire; evaluate these projections as to the probability of occurrence, impact on the public transport sector by bus and the desirability of occurrence of the projections, through the result of a panel of experts, using the questionnaire developed in the previous item; evaluate the formation of a construct of important factors for public bus transport related to sustainable urban mobility in small and medium-sized Brazilian cities based on factors and variables in the questionnaire; select the variables that will have the greatest impact on public transport by bus. The questionnaire was applied to specialists in urban public transport (UPT) and for the analysis of the collected data the following techniques were used: calculation of the degree of agreement, exploratory factor analysis and logistic regression. Data analysis pointed to three probable projections to occur in 2030: P6- Buses from UPT, small and medium-sized cities will be gradually connected and will communicate with each other and with the infrastructure; P9-UPT by bus will be an important link in the integration with other more sustainable modes (walking, bicycle, scooter, etc.) in small and medium-sized cities and P8-Number of individual vehicles in the area of small and medium-sized cities will be reduced. The results of the research point to the view of experts on topics related to sustainable urban mobility and mobility policies for the year 2030 in small and medium-sized Brazilian cities, with a focus on establishing whether they will be sufficient to have a robust impact on sustainable urban mobility. and assist in sustainable development goals.
This research aimed to analyze the perspective of public bus transport in 2030 in small and medium-sized cities, with a focus on sustainable urban mobility. For the development of the research, four specific research objectives were outlined: to elaborate projections for public transport by bus and to develop a questionnaire; evaluate these projections as to the probability of occurrence, impact on the public transport sector by bus and the desirability of occurrence of the projections, through the result of a panel of experts, using the questionnaire developed in the previous item; evaluate the formation of a construct of important factors for public bus transport related to sustainable urban mobility in small and medium-sized Brazilian cities based on factors and variables in the questionnaire; select the variables that will have the greatest impact on public transport by bus. The questionnaire was applied to specialists in urban public transport (UPT) and for the analysis of the collected data the following techniques were used: calculation of the degree of agreement, exploratory factor analysis and logistic regression. Data analysis pointed to three probable projections to occur in 2030: P6- Buses from UPT, small and medium-sized cities will be gradually connected and will communicate with each other and with the infrastructure; P9-UPT by bus will be an important link in the integration with other more sustainable modes (walking, bicycle, scooter, etc.) in small and medium-sized cities and P8-Number of individual vehicles in the area of small and medium-sized cities will be reduced. The results of the research point to the view of experts on topics related to sustainable urban mobility and mobility policies for the year 2030 in small and medium-sized Brazilian cities, with a focus on establishing whether they will be sufficient to have a robust impact on sustainable urban mobility. and assist in sustainable development goals.
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Palavras-chave
Transporte público, Ônibus, Mobilidade urbana sustentável, Desenvolvimento sustentável, Public transport, Bus, Sustainable urban mobility, Sustainable development