Relative fire-proneness of land cover types in the Brazilian Atlantic forest

Fires are increasingly affecting tropical biomes, where landscape-fire interactions remain understudied. We investigate the fire-proneness—the likelihood of a land use or land cover (LULC) type burning more or less than expected based on availability—in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF). This biodiversity hotspot is increasingly affected by fires due to human activities and climate change. Using a selection ratio-based approach, we analyzed fire-LULC interactions in 40,869 fires over a 35-year period (1987–2022) across various ecoregions in the AF. Our findings revealed that secondary forests, forest areas that have regrown after major disturbances, burned 61% more than expected by chance, whereas old-growth forests, native forests that have developed over very long periods, burned 57% less than expected, highlighting a nearly inverse relationship in their fire-proneness. Interestingly, our data indicate that pastures in the AF are less prone to fire than expected, despite being considered among the land uses that burn the most in Brazil. Other LULCs showed variable fire-proneness, with some differences between ecoregions. Over time, the fire-proneness of secondary forests decreased, likely due to forest aging and changes in land management practices. We emphasize the necessity for tailored fire management strategies that address the unique vulnerabilities of secondary forests, particularly in the context of ongoing restoration efforts aimed at increasing native forests. Effective measures, including the implementation of 'fire-smart management' practices and enhancing the perceived value of secondary forests among local communities, are crucial for mitigating fire risks. Integrating these strategies with incentive-based approaches can bolster fire prevention, ensuring the long-term success of restoration programs. Our study provides a framework for understanding fire-landscape dynamics in tropical forests and offers actionable insights for practitioners working to safeguard these biomes from the escalating threat of wildfires.