Modelos de previsão de ocorrência de adultos de diatraea saccharalis (Fabricius, 1794) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) em cana-de-açúcar (Saccharum spp.)
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Data
2016-02-25
Autores
Carbognin, Éllen Rimkevicius [UNESP]
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Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
A broca-da-cana, Diatraea saccharalis, é considerada uma das principais pragas da cana-de-açúcar e tem causado sérios prejuízos em novas fronteiras agrícolas brasileiras que abrangem o oeste do estado de São Paulo e a região centro-oeste do país. Desta forma, este trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar a dinâmica populacional de adultos de Diatraea saccharalis em diferentes regiões canavieiras e sua relação com os fatores meteorológicos, bem como estabelecer modelo de previsão de ocorrência com base em graus-dia e equações de diferenças. Os adultos foram avaliados semanalmente durante duas safras (2013/2014 e 2014/2015) em cultivos localizados nos estados de São Paulo (Pradópolis e Valparaíso) e Goiás (Quirinópolis). Em cada localidade foram utilizados um ou dois talhões de 25 ha, próximos (< 2 km) a estações climáticas. Em uma área central (1 a 1,5 ha) de cada talhão foram instaladas quatro armadilhas delta contendo fêmeas virgens e piso colante para captura dos adultos. O número de adultos coletados e os dados climáticos foram submetidos à análise de regressão múltipla e correlação. Modelos matemáticos baseados em graus-dia e equações de diferenças foram elaborados. Verificou-se maior ocorrência de adultos no período das chuvas, principalmente, de janeiro a abril. Não houve correlação entre os fatores climáticos e a flutuação populacional; com exceção de Quirinópolis, onde a umidade foi fator abiótico limitante para o crescimento populacional desta espécie. Os modelos de graus-dia e de equações de diferenças se complementam e mostraram eficácia na previsão tanto para a época de ocorrência da praga, bem como do número de insetos na semana seguinte.
The sugarcane borer, Diatraea saccharalis, is considered one of the main pest of sugarcane and has caused serious losses in new Brazilian agricultural frontiers including the western region of São Paulo state and the Midwest region of the country. Thus, this study aimed to assess the population dynamics of D. saccharalis adults in different sugarcane regions and its relationship with meteorological factors, as well as to establish a forecasting model based on degree days and difference equations. The adults were evaluated weekly for two growing seasons (2013/2014 and 2014/2015) in areas located in the states of São Paulo (Pradópolis and Valparaiso) and Goiás (Quirinópolis). In each location we used one or two plots of 25 ha, near (<2 km) to meteorological stations. In a central area (1 to 1.5 ha) of each block, four delta traps with virgin females and sticky floor were installed to capture adults. The number of collected adults and weather data were submitted to analysis of multiple regression and correlation. Mathematical models based on degree days and difference equations were developed. A higher occurrence of adults was observed during the rainy season, mainly from January to April. There was no correlation between climatic factors and population dynamics; except for Quirinópolis where the relative humidity was a limiting abiotic factor for population growth of this species. Models of degree days and difference equations are complementary and have shown effectiveness in forecasting both the time of occurrence of the pest as well as the number of adults in the next week.
The sugarcane borer, Diatraea saccharalis, is considered one of the main pest of sugarcane and has caused serious losses in new Brazilian agricultural frontiers including the western region of São Paulo state and the Midwest region of the country. Thus, this study aimed to assess the population dynamics of D. saccharalis adults in different sugarcane regions and its relationship with meteorological factors, as well as to establish a forecasting model based on degree days and difference equations. The adults were evaluated weekly for two growing seasons (2013/2014 and 2014/2015) in areas located in the states of São Paulo (Pradópolis and Valparaiso) and Goiás (Quirinópolis). In each location we used one or two plots of 25 ha, near (<2 km) to meteorological stations. In a central area (1 to 1.5 ha) of each block, four delta traps with virgin females and sticky floor were installed to capture adults. The number of collected adults and weather data were submitted to analysis of multiple regression and correlation. Mathematical models based on degree days and difference equations were developed. A higher occurrence of adults was observed during the rainy season, mainly from January to April. There was no correlation between climatic factors and population dynamics; except for Quirinópolis where the relative humidity was a limiting abiotic factor for population growth of this species. Models of degree days and difference equations are complementary and have shown effectiveness in forecasting both the time of occurrence of the pest as well as the number of adults in the next week.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Broca-da-cana, Regulação populacional, Parâmetro meteorológico, Graus-dia, Modelos matemáticos, Sugarcane borer, Population regulation, Meteorological parameters, Degree-day, Mathematical models