Rentabilidade e risco de sistemas de produção de culturas anuais no estado do Mato Grosso
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2017-12-21
Autores
Silva, Érik Januário da
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
Um dos grandes desafios dos produtores agrícolas é elevar os níveis de produção e produtividade das plantações e ao mesmo tempo atender aos anseios da sociedade para que os sistemas de produção sejam mais sustentáveis. Neste cenário, a adoção do sistema de sucessão de culturas surge como uma opção conservacionista ao convencional sistema de monocultura, graças às vantagens como a melhoria das propriedades físicas, químicas e biológicas do solo, melhora o aproveitamento de fertilizantes, reduz os riscos de mercado, entre outras. Entretanto, a adoção contínua do sistema de sucessão de culturas traz malefícios ao solo, como erosão, compactação e esgotamento de nutrientes, os mesmos efeitos do uso contínuo do sistema de monocultura. O objetivo geral deste trabalho foi avaliar a rentabilidade e os riscos econômicos para a adoção do sistema de sucessão de culturas anuais (cultivos de verão seguidos de cultivos de inverno) em relação ao sistema em monocultura no estado do Mato Grosso. Como objetivos específicos, buscou-se identificar quais as principais fontes potenciais de risco para cada cultura e avaliar como elas influenciaram os resultados finais das simulações de cada sistema. Foram realizadas simulações de cenários para ambos os sistemas por meio do método de simulação de Monte Carlo e as culturas selecionadas para esta análise foram a soja, o algodão e o milho dada sua relevância para a economia local e nacional. Para cada sistema foram feitas as análises estatística, de sensibilidade e de percentis de risco utilizando os indicadores de rentabilidade renda líquida (RL) e índice de lucratividade (IL), nos cenários pessimista, médio ou de maior ocorrência e pessimista para as variáveis de produção. Os resultados das simulações indicaram que a monocultura da soja é a atividade com o desempenho mais conservador dentre as analisadas, com as menores probabilidades de prejuízos no cenário mais pessimista de valores e os mais baixos retornos prováveis nos cenários médio e otimista, a baixos níveis de risco, sendo mais indicada a produtores conservadores e avessos a assumirem elevados riscos. A monocultura do algodão e a sucessão de culturas soja-algodão apresentaram os maiores prejuízos no cenário pessimista e as maiores probabilidades de retornos econômicos no cenário otimista, mas com elevados níveis de risco, sendo mais indicados a produtores dispostos a assumirem elevados riscos. A sucessão soja-milho apresentou relevantes resultados nos três cenários, com baixa probabilidade de prejuízos no cenário pessimista e alto retorno econômico nos cenários médio e otimista, a níveis médios de risco, sendo indicada para produtores que estão dispostos a assumirem níveis de riscos mais elevados do que os produtores conservadores. Além disso, as fontes de risco mais impactantes nos resultados das simulações de cenários de ambos os sistemas foram os preços de venda da soja e da pluma de algodão, ambas com impacto positivo, e os custos do inseticida do algodão e do fertilizante da soja, ambas com impacto negativo. No geral, o sistema de sucessão de culturas apresentou maiores resultados a menores níveis de risco.
One of the greatest challenges of agricultural producers is to raise production levels and productivity of plantations and additionally meet the yearnings of society for the production systems more sustainable. In this scenario, the adoption of the crop succession system emerges as a conservationist option front of conventional monoculture system, to the advantages as improvement of physical, chemical and biological properties of the soil, improves the use of fertilizers, reducing market risks, among others. However, the continuous adoption of the crop succession system brings harm to the ground effects, such as erosion, compaction and nutrient depletion, the same effects of the use of the monoculture system. The general goal of this research was to evaluate the profitability and the economic risks for the adoption of the crop succession system for annual crops (summer crops followed by winter crops) regarding to the monoculture system in the State of Mato Grosso. The specific goals of this study were to identify the main potential sources of risk for each culture and evaluate how they have influenced the final results of each system simulations. Scenarios were carried out for both systems by Monte Carlo simulation method and the crops selected for this analysis were soybean, cotton and maize, due to their relevance to the local and national economy. For each system the following analyses were obtained: statistical, sensitivity and percentiles of risk, using the profitability indicators, net income (NI) and profitability index (PI), for three scenarios, pessimistic, medium or higher occurrence and optimistic, for the variables of production. The results of the simulations indicated that the monoculture of soybean is the activity with the most conservative performance analyzed, with the lowest probability of losses in the pessimistic scenario and the lowest probable return on medium and optimistic ones, at low levels of risk. This case is more indicated to the conservative producers and averse to assume high risks. The cotton monoculture and the crop succession soybean-cotton presented the biggest losses in the pessimistic scenario and the greater probability of economic return in the optimistic ones, but, at high levels of risk. These cases are most suitable to producers willing to take higher risks. The soybean-maize succession presented relevant results in all scenarios, with low probability of losses in the pessimistic scenario and high economic return on medium and optimistic ones, with average levels of risk, being indicated for producers who are willing to take higher risk levels than the conservative producers. In addition, the more impactful sources of risks for monoculture and crop succession systems were the sale prices of soybeans and cotton feather, both with positive impact, and the cost of cotton insecticide and fertilizer of soybean, with negative impact. In general, the crop succession system presented higher results at lower levels of risk against the monoculture system.
One of the greatest challenges of agricultural producers is to raise production levels and productivity of plantations and additionally meet the yearnings of society for the production systems more sustainable. In this scenario, the adoption of the crop succession system emerges as a conservationist option front of conventional monoculture system, to the advantages as improvement of physical, chemical and biological properties of the soil, improves the use of fertilizers, reducing market risks, among others. However, the continuous adoption of the crop succession system brings harm to the ground effects, such as erosion, compaction and nutrient depletion, the same effects of the use of the monoculture system. The general goal of this research was to evaluate the profitability and the economic risks for the adoption of the crop succession system for annual crops (summer crops followed by winter crops) regarding to the monoculture system in the State of Mato Grosso. The specific goals of this study were to identify the main potential sources of risk for each culture and evaluate how they have influenced the final results of each system simulations. Scenarios were carried out for both systems by Monte Carlo simulation method and the crops selected for this analysis were soybean, cotton and maize, due to their relevance to the local and national economy. For each system the following analyses were obtained: statistical, sensitivity and percentiles of risk, using the profitability indicators, net income (NI) and profitability index (PI), for three scenarios, pessimistic, medium or higher occurrence and optimistic, for the variables of production. The results of the simulations indicated that the monoculture of soybean is the activity with the most conservative performance analyzed, with the lowest probability of losses in the pessimistic scenario and the lowest probable return on medium and optimistic ones, at low levels of risk. This case is more indicated to the conservative producers and averse to assume high risks. The cotton monoculture and the crop succession soybean-cotton presented the biggest losses in the pessimistic scenario and the greater probability of economic return in the optimistic ones, but, at high levels of risk. These cases are most suitable to producers willing to take higher risks. The soybean-maize succession presented relevant results in all scenarios, with low probability of losses in the pessimistic scenario and high economic return on medium and optimistic ones, with average levels of risk, being indicated for producers who are willing to take higher risk levels than the conservative producers. In addition, the more impactful sources of risks for monoculture and crop succession systems were the sale prices of soybeans and cotton feather, both with positive impact, and the cost of cotton insecticide and fertilizer of soybean, with negative impact. In general, the crop succession system presented higher results at lower levels of risk against the monoculture system.
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Palavras-chave
monocultura, sucessão, soja, milho, algodão, monoculture, succession, soybean, maize, cotton