Modelo hidrológico SWAT na bacia hidrográfica do rio Paraibuna, região da Mata Atlântica - São Paulo, Brasil
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Data
2018-05-03
Autores
Marmontel, Caio Vinicius Ferreira [UNESP]
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
A água disponível para o consumo humano vem se tornando cada vez mais escassa, um exemplo, foi a crise hídrica iniciada em 2014 na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. Diante desse problema, uma possibilidade de melhorar a compreensão do comportamento hidrológico, é a utilização de tecnologias, ou seja, as bases computacionais, em especial a integração do SIG com a modelagem hidrológica, por possuir um grande potencial de estimar quantitativamente a vazão. O presente estudo teve como objetivo testar a aplicabilidade do modelo hidrológico SWAT para estimação de vazões em um trecho da bacia hidrográfica do rio Paraibuna - Vale do Paraíba, região da Mata Atlântica, no estado de São Paulo. O rio Paraibuna utiliza suas águas para gerar energia elétrica e é um dos formadores do rio Paraíba do Sul, importante corpo d’água da região sudeste do Brasil. Os dados climáticos e fluviométricos foram coletados no LHFWE/PESM-NC com uma série histórica de 22 anos. O trecho da bacia hidrográfica estudada tem elevação de 974 a 1662 metros, cinco tipos de solos e três tipos de usos da terra. As avaliações dos dados observados e simulados na calibração e validação foram feitas por meio da avaliação dos gráficos-visuais de dispersão, hidrogramas e índices estatísticos pelo SWAT-CUP. Os dados gerados do balanço hídrico pelo SWAT, após a calibração foram valores próximos com a realidade. Na calibração e validação foi verificado boa aderência entre os dados simulados e observados, ou seja, os valores simulados reconheceram os picos e recessões dos valores observados. Os índices estatísticos (NS, PBIAS, RSR e R²) calculados para a calibração e validação do SWAT foram qualificados como “muito bom” para a estimação das vazões. Os resultados confirmaram a aplicabilidade do modelo, dessa forma, pode servir como ferramenta para planejamento e gestão de políticas públicas dos recursos hídricos em bacias hidrográficas, na região da Mata Atlântica. O modelo hidrológico SWAT mostrou-se muito bom e apto para estimação de vazões e do balanço hídrico no trecho da bacia hidrográfica do rio Paraibuna.
The water available for human consumption is becoming increasingly scarce, an example was the water crisis started in 2014 in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. Faced with this problem, one possibility to improve the understanding of hydrological behavior, is the use of technologies, that is, the computational bases, especially the integration of GIS with hydrological modeling, because it has a great potential of quantitatively estimate the flow rate. The present study had as objective to test the applicability of the SWAT hydrological model for flow estimation in the stretch of the Paraibuna river basin - Paraiba Valley, in the Atlantic Forest region, in the state of São Paulo. The Paraibuna River uses its waters to generate electricity and is one of the creators of the river South Paraiba, an important body of water in the southeastern region of Brazil. Climatic and fluviometric data were collected at the LHFWE/PESM-NC with a historical series of 22 years. The stretch of the studied basin has elevation of 974 to 1662 meters, five types of soils and three types of land use. The evaluations of the data observed and simulated in the calibration and validation were done by means of the evaluation of the visual graphics of dispersion, hydrograms and statistical indexes by SWAT-CUP. The data generated from the SWAT water balance after calibration, were close to reality. In the calibration and validation, in good adherence was observed between the simulated and observed data, that is, the simulated values recognized the peaks and recessions of the observed values. The statistical indices (NS, PBIAS, RSR and R²) calculated for SWAT calibration and validation were qualified as "very good" for the estimation of flows. The results confirmed the applicability of the model, so it can serve as a tool for planning and management of water resources public policies in watersheds, in the Atlantic Forest region. The SWAT hydrological model was very good and suitable for estimation of flow and water balance in the stretch of the Paraibuna river basin.
The water available for human consumption is becoming increasingly scarce, an example was the water crisis started in 2014 in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. Faced with this problem, one possibility to improve the understanding of hydrological behavior, is the use of technologies, that is, the computational bases, especially the integration of GIS with hydrological modeling, because it has a great potential of quantitatively estimate the flow rate. The present study had as objective to test the applicability of the SWAT hydrological model for flow estimation in the stretch of the Paraibuna river basin - Paraiba Valley, in the Atlantic Forest region, in the state of São Paulo. The Paraibuna River uses its waters to generate electricity and is one of the creators of the river South Paraiba, an important body of water in the southeastern region of Brazil. Climatic and fluviometric data were collected at the LHFWE/PESM-NC with a historical series of 22 years. The stretch of the studied basin has elevation of 974 to 1662 meters, five types of soils and three types of land use. The evaluations of the data observed and simulated in the calibration and validation were done by means of the evaluation of the visual graphics of dispersion, hydrograms and statistical indexes by SWAT-CUP. The data generated from the SWAT water balance after calibration, were close to reality. In the calibration and validation, in good adherence was observed between the simulated and observed data, that is, the simulated values recognized the peaks and recessions of the observed values. The statistical indices (NS, PBIAS, RSR and R²) calculated for SWAT calibration and validation were qualified as "very good" for the estimation of flows. The results confirmed the applicability of the model, so it can serve as a tool for planning and management of water resources public policies in watersheds, in the Atlantic Forest region. The SWAT hydrological model was very good and suitable for estimation of flow and water balance in the stretch of the Paraibuna river basin.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Água, Bacia hidrográfica, Calibração, Hidrologia florestal, Mata Atlântica, Modelagem hidrológica, Validação, Water, Watershed, Calibration, Forest hydrology, Atlantic Forest, Hydrological modeling, Validation