Modelos de previsão de tarifa de água, aplicados a autarquias municipais e empresas privadas, nas regiões Sul e Sudeste do Brasil
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Data
2019-07-31
Autores
Bezerra, Alberto Guilherme de Oliveira
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
O objetivo do presente trabalho é avaliar modelos de previsão de tarifa de água, aplicados a autarquias municipais e empresas privadas, nas regiões Sul e Sudeste do Brasil. Utilizando a metodologia de cálculo e posterior comparação dos erros obtidos para as previsões, verificando também a aplicabilidade das tarifas previstas para cada sistema de abastecimento. Utilizou-se dois modelos de previsão, o primeiro, fundamentado em técnicas de regressão linear múltipla e o segundo, baseado na aplicação de redes neurais artificiais. Avaliando, dessa forma, a capacidade de os dois modelos em questão preverem os valores tarifários a serem cobrados pelos prestadores de serviços de abastecimento de água e coleta de esgoto, a partir da análise das tarifas anteriormente praticadas. Os dados subsidiários para elaboração dos modelos foram obtidos por meio do sistema nacional de informações sobre saneamento (SNIS). Confirmada a consistência do banco de dados primário, procedeu-se com processamento destes dados, e definição das variáveis mais intervenientes para a definição da tarifa por meio da técnica de análise de correlação. Propôs-se a classificação dos sistemas de acordo com a classe jurídica do prestador de serviço, os cenários financeiros (superávit ou déficit) destes prestadores e o porte populacional dos municípios atendidos. Os resultados obtidos indicaram que os processos de previsão, em ambos os modelos utilizados, foram capazes de prever com elevada acurácia as tarifas, e garantir a manutenção do superávit para os sistemas analisados. Muito embora ambas as classes jurídicas tenham apresentado resultados positivos, notou-se uma uniformidade no número de variáveis selecionadas para as empresas privadas independente do critério financeiro considerado.
The objective of the present work was evaluating forecasting models for water tariff applied to municipal and private companies in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil. Using the calculation methodology and subsequent comparison of the errors obtained for the forecasts, also verifying the applicability of the forecast tariffs for each supply system. Two prediction models are used, the first based on multiple linear regression techniques and the second based on the application of artificial neural networks. Evaluating, in this way, the ability of the two models in question to predict the tariff values to be charged by the water supply and wastewater collection service providers, based on the analysis of the tariffs previously practiced. The subsidiary data for the elaboration of the models were obtained through the national sanitation information system (SNIS). Confirming the consistency of the primary database, we proceeded with processing of these data and definition of the most intervening variables for the definition of the tariff through the correlation analysis technique. The classification of the systems according to the legal class of the service provider, the financial scenarios (surplus or deficit) of these providers and the population size of the municipalities served were proposed. The obtained results indicated that the forecasting processes, in both models used, were able to predict with high accuracy the tariffs, and guaranteed the maintenance of the surplus for the analyzed systems. Although both legal classes showed positive results, there was a uniformity in the number of variables selected for private companies regardless of the financial criterion considered.
The objective of the present work was evaluating forecasting models for water tariff applied to municipal and private companies in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil. Using the calculation methodology and subsequent comparison of the errors obtained for the forecasts, also verifying the applicability of the forecast tariffs for each supply system. Two prediction models are used, the first based on multiple linear regression techniques and the second based on the application of artificial neural networks. Evaluating, in this way, the ability of the two models in question to predict the tariff values to be charged by the water supply and wastewater collection service providers, based on the analysis of the tariffs previously practiced. The subsidiary data for the elaboration of the models were obtained through the national sanitation information system (SNIS). Confirming the consistency of the primary database, we proceeded with processing of these data and definition of the most intervening variables for the definition of the tariff through the correlation analysis technique. The classification of the systems according to the legal class of the service provider, the financial scenarios (surplus or deficit) of these providers and the population size of the municipalities served were proposed. The obtained results indicated that the forecasting processes, in both models used, were able to predict with high accuracy the tariffs, and guaranteed the maintenance of the surplus for the analyzed systems. Although both legal classes showed positive results, there was a uniformity in the number of variables selected for private companies regardless of the financial criterion considered.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Tarifa de água, Redes neurais artificiais, SNIS, Water tax, Artificial neural network