A política monetária sob a ótica das escolas liberais
Carregando...
Data
2019-12-09
Autores
Falco, Gustavo Almeida [UNESP]
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
Para os economistas clássicos a política monetária não tem efeitos sobre variáveis reais se quer no curto prazo, pois entendem que os agentes não sofrem de ilusão monetária, já para os monetaristas a moeda pode ter sim efeitos reais no curto prazo, devido a adoção da hipótese de expectativas adaptativas, que por sua vez permitiriam que os agentes interpretassem variações salarias nominais como sendo reais, afetando assim a oferta de mão de obra e consequentemente a produção. No modelo novo-clássico, com a introdução das expectativas racionais se criou um dilema no qual a política monetária pode ou não ter efeitos reais no curto prazo dependendo de ela ser de surpresa ou pré-anunciada. O grande consenso que existe entre as 3 escolas é que seria inviável usar a política monetária para estimular a demanda agregada, uma vez que no longo prazo, as variáveis reais retornariam aos seus níveis naturais, e o efeito final dessa medida seria apenas o de aumento no nível geral de preços. O ativismo monetário, isto é, a política monetária conduzida através do discricionarismo, é bastante criticado por conta das incertezas que ele gera, além de processos inflacionários que prejudicam os investimentos e a economia como um todo, e por isso os economistas tanto liberais quanto neoliberais entendem que para maximizar a performance econômica a moeda deve ser o mais estável possível, o que implica em uma política monetária também estável, sem grandes alterações ao longo do tempo
For the classical economists, monetary policy has no effect on real variables even in the short-term, since they understand that agents do not suffer from monetary illusion, while for the monetarists the currency may have real effects in the short run, due to the adoption of the adaptive expectations hypothesis, which would allow agents to suffer from monetary illusion, because them would interpret nominal wage variations as real, and this will affect labor supply and production. In the new-classical model, the introduction of rational expectations has created a dilemma in which monetary policy may or may not have real short-term effects, depending on if it is by surprise or pre-announced. The great consensus that exist between the 3 schools is that it would be impracticable to use monetary policy to stimulate aggregate demand, since in the long run, real variables will return to their natural levels, and the ultimate effect of this action would only be to increase the overall pricing level. Monetary activism, that is monetary policy conducted through discretion, is widely criticized for the uncertainties that it generates, as well as inflationary process that undermine investment and the whole economy, that’s why liberal and neoliberal economists understand that to maximize economic performance the currency must be the most stable as possible, which implies in a stable monetary policy, without major changes over time
For the classical economists, monetary policy has no effect on real variables even in the short-term, since they understand that agents do not suffer from monetary illusion, while for the monetarists the currency may have real effects in the short run, due to the adoption of the adaptive expectations hypothesis, which would allow agents to suffer from monetary illusion, because them would interpret nominal wage variations as real, and this will affect labor supply and production. In the new-classical model, the introduction of rational expectations has created a dilemma in which monetary policy may or may not have real short-term effects, depending on if it is by surprise or pre-announced. The great consensus that exist between the 3 schools is that it would be impracticable to use monetary policy to stimulate aggregate demand, since in the long run, real variables will return to their natural levels, and the ultimate effect of this action would only be to increase the overall pricing level. Monetary activism, that is monetary policy conducted through discretion, is widely criticized for the uncertainties that it generates, as well as inflationary process that undermine investment and the whole economy, that’s why liberal and neoliberal economists understand that to maximize economic performance the currency must be the most stable as possible, which implies in a stable monetary policy, without major changes over time
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Política monetária, Liberalismo, Neoliberalismo, Monetary Policy, Liberalism, Neoliberalism