Avaliação da participação das exportações brasileiras de açúcar para China, EUA e União Europeia entre 2006 e 2017
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Data
2021-07-02
Autores
Zuccolo, Vittoria
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Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
O trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar a participação do Brasil em três importantes mercados importadores de açúcar: China, Estados Unidos e União Europeia. A pesquisa usou uma abordagem quantitativa e uma série de dados entre os anos de 2006 e 2017, que foram divididos em três períodos: de 2006 a 2009, de 2010 a 2013 e 2014 a 2017. O método utilizado partiu do conceito de market share constante, em que se buscou encontrar os efeitos geradores da evolução nas exportações do país, sendo eles: tamanho do mercado, distribuição e competitividade. Na comparação do período de 2006-2009 com 2010-2013, percebeu-se que a participação brasileira nas importações de açúcar feitas pela China aumentou consideravelmente. Na comparação do período 2010-2013 a 2014-2017 a participação do Brasil nas importações feitas pela União Europeia diminuiu pela metade. O modelo do market share constante ainda permitiu concluir que no segundo período analisado o Brasil teve crescimento acima do esperado nos principais mercados em relação ao primeiro período, mas comparando o terceiro com o segundo período, o crescimento real foi menor do que o potencial nesses mercados. Comparando o terceiro período com o primeiro, somente a participação nas importações feitas pela União Europeia foi aquém do previsto pelo método. Verificou-se ainda que as exportações brasileiras no período total observado aumentaram mais que as exportações totais mundiais. O aumento do market share mundial do Brasil do primeiro ao terceiro período analisado foi de 4,44%, devido principalmente aos efeitos tamanho de mercado e competitividade. O efeito tamanho de mercado foi importante também na análise com o primeiro e segundo períodos, mas foi irrelevante na análise com segundo e terceiro períodos. O efeito distribuição foi importante na análise do segundo com o terceiro período, mas foi negativo nas análises do primeiro com o segundo e do primeiro com o último. Por fim, o efeito competitividade foi relevante em todas as análises. Portanto, os resultados mostraram que as exportações brasileiras cresceram nos períodos comparados. A posição de liderança do Brasil foi confirmada em relação aos concorrentes, todavia, nos mercados destino estudados enfrenta algumas barreiras que limitam sua participação.
This study aimed to evaluate the participation of Brazil in three important sugar importing markets: China, the United States and the European Union. The research used a quantitative approach and a series of data between the years 2006 and 2017, which were divided into three periods: from 2006 to 2009, from 2010 to 2013 and 2014 to 2017. The method used the concept of constant market share, in which an attempt was made to find the generating effects of the evolution of the country's exports, namely: market size, distribution and competitiveness. When comparing the period 2006-2009 with 2010-2013, it was noticed that the Brazilian share of sugar imports from China increased considerably. When comparing the period 2010-2013 to 2014-2017, Brazil's share of imports from the European Union decreased by half. The constant market share model also allowed us to conclude that in the second period analyzed Brazil had a growth above expected in the main markets in relation to the first period, but comparing the third with the second period, the real growth was less than the potential in these markets. Comparing the third period with the first, only the participation in imports from the European Union was lower than predicted by the method. It was also found that Brazilian exports in the total period observed increased more than total world exports. The increase in Brazil's world market share from the first to the third period analyzed was 4.44%, mainly due to the effects of market size and competitiveness. The market size effect was also important in the analysis with the first and second periods, but it was irrelevant in the analysis with the second and third periods. The distribution effect was important in the analysis of the second with the third period, but it was negative in the analysis of the first with the second and of the first with the last. Finally, the competitiveness effect was relevant in all analyses. Therefore, the results showed that Brazilian exports grew in the compared periods. Brazil's leading position was confirmed in relation to competitors, however, in the studied destination markets it faces some barriers that limit its participation.
This study aimed to evaluate the participation of Brazil in three important sugar importing markets: China, the United States and the European Union. The research used a quantitative approach and a series of data between the years 2006 and 2017, which were divided into three periods: from 2006 to 2009, from 2010 to 2013 and 2014 to 2017. The method used the concept of constant market share, in which an attempt was made to find the generating effects of the evolution of the country's exports, namely: market size, distribution and competitiveness. When comparing the period 2006-2009 with 2010-2013, it was noticed that the Brazilian share of sugar imports from China increased considerably. When comparing the period 2010-2013 to 2014-2017, Brazil's share of imports from the European Union decreased by half. The constant market share model also allowed us to conclude that in the second period analyzed Brazil had a growth above expected in the main markets in relation to the first period, but comparing the third with the second period, the real growth was less than the potential in these markets. Comparing the third period with the first, only the participation in imports from the European Union was lower than predicted by the method. It was also found that Brazilian exports in the total period observed increased more than total world exports. The increase in Brazil's world market share from the first to the third period analyzed was 4.44%, mainly due to the effects of market size and competitiveness. The market size effect was also important in the analysis with the first and second periods, but it was irrelevant in the analysis with the second and third periods. The distribution effect was important in the analysis of the second with the third period, but it was negative in the analysis of the first with the second and of the first with the last. Finally, the competitiveness effect was relevant in all analyses. Therefore, the results showed that Brazilian exports grew in the compared periods. Brazil's leading position was confirmed in relation to competitors, however, in the studied destination markets it faces some barriers that limit its participation.
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Palavras-chave
Comércio exterior, Açúcar, Exportação