Impactos da globalização sobre a inflação: evidências econométricas para países emergentes
Carregando...
Data
2021-11-24
Autores
Oliveira, Paulo Henrique Silva de [UNESP]
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
O processo de globalização é um fenômeno já consolidado e seus reflexos estão evidenciados nos indicadores de comércio de bens e serviços e pelo fluxo monetário entre países. Frente ao contexto, a presente pesquisa analisa o impacto que fatores globais podem exercer sobre o nível de inflação das economias emergentes. Inicialmente, realiza-se uma análise acerca da relação entre moeda, inflação e globalização após a Crise do Subprime, sob a ótica dos principais Bancos Centrais do mundo desenvolvido, que expandiram suas bases monetárias por meio do Quantitative Easing sem causar inflação. Na sequência, discute-se que o avanço da globalização comercial e financeira pode ter alterado a dinâmica macroeconômica dos países, configurando-se como um novo determinante do nível de inflação. Por fim, a pesquisa realiza uma avaliação econométrica com dados estruturados em painel, de 20 economias emergentes entre 1980-2019. As estatísticas obtidas indicam que a Curva de Phillips tradicional teve seu poder de explicação sobre a inflação reduzido no período 2000-2019 quando comparado com o recorte 1980-1999. Simultaneamente, encontrou-se uma relação negativa e estatisticamente significativa entre o nível de globalização e as taxas de inflação das economias emergentes. Por fim, ao aplicar os testes propostos por Ball (2006) e Borio e Filardo (2007), as evidências encontradas sugerem que os fatores globais exercem maior influência sobre a inflação das economias emergentes do que propriamente os fatores domésticos – indicando parecer favorável à hipótese de que a globalização tenha alterado a dinâmica de inflação das economias emergentes após os anos 2000.
The globalization process is an already consolidated phenomenon and its consequences are evidenced in the indicators of trade in goods and services and in the monetary flow between countries. Given the context, this research analyzes the impact that global factors can exert on the level of inflation in emerging economies. Initially, an analysis of the relationship between currency, inflation and globalization after the Subprime Crisis is carried out, from the perspective of the main Central Banks of the developed world, which expanded their monetary bases through Quantitative Easing without causing inflation. Next, it is argued that the advance of commercial and financial globalization may have changed the macroeconomic dynamics of countries, configuring itself as a new determinant of the level of inflation. Finally, the survey performs an econometric assessment with structured panel data from 20 emerging economies between 1980-2019. The statistics obtained indicate that the traditional Phillips Curve had its explanatory power on inflation reduced in the period 2000-2019, when compared to the 1980-1999 cut-off. Simultaneously, a negative and statistically significant relationship was found between the level of globalization and the inflation rates of emerging economies. Finally, when applying the tests proposed by Ball (2006) and Borio and Filardo (2007), the evidence suggests that global factors exert a greater influence on inflation in emerging economies than do domestic factors themselves – indicating an opinion favors the hypothesis that globalization has changed the inflation dynamics of emerging economies after the 2000s.
The globalization process is an already consolidated phenomenon and its consequences are evidenced in the indicators of trade in goods and services and in the monetary flow between countries. Given the context, this research analyzes the impact that global factors can exert on the level of inflation in emerging economies. Initially, an analysis of the relationship between currency, inflation and globalization after the Subprime Crisis is carried out, from the perspective of the main Central Banks of the developed world, which expanded their monetary bases through Quantitative Easing without causing inflation. Next, it is argued that the advance of commercial and financial globalization may have changed the macroeconomic dynamics of countries, configuring itself as a new determinant of the level of inflation. Finally, the survey performs an econometric assessment with structured panel data from 20 emerging economies between 1980-2019. The statistics obtained indicate that the traditional Phillips Curve had its explanatory power on inflation reduced in the period 2000-2019, when compared to the 1980-1999 cut-off. Simultaneously, a negative and statistically significant relationship was found between the level of globalization and the inflation rates of emerging economies. Finally, when applying the tests proposed by Ball (2006) and Borio and Filardo (2007), the evidence suggests that global factors exert a greater influence on inflation in emerging economies than do domestic factors themselves – indicating an opinion favors the hypothesis that globalization has changed the inflation dynamics of emerging economies after the 2000s.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Inflação, Globalização, Países Emergentes, Curva de Phillips, Inflation, Globalization, Emerging Countries, Phillips Curve