Análise de rentabilidade e risco na produção de cana-de- açúcar na região norte do Estado de São Paulo sob dois tipos de arranjos contratuais
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Data
2009-06-18
Autores
Miguel, Fernando Bergantini [UNESP]
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Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
No Brasil, e mais acentuadamente no Estado de São Paulo, o agronegócio está assistindo o desenvolvimento da indústria sucro-alcooleira. A cultura da cana-de-açúcar ocupa atualmente neste estado, uma área em torno de 5,2 milhões de hectares cultivados, com previsão de expansão em 50% dentro de quatro anos, por esta razão, a perspectiva com o aumento da demanda por agroenergia, torna a cana-de-açúcar um dos mais atrativos investimentos do momento. A principal forma de expansão canavieira está ocorrendo por meio de arrendamento de terras. Deste modo, o objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a rentabilidade do uso da terra para a produção de cana-de-açúcar na região Norte do estado de São Paulo, sob condições de risco em duas óticas, a do produtor fornecedor e do proprietário que arrenda terra para usina. Utilizou-se o método de Monte Carlo para a simulação destas variáveis, que foram obtidas de fontes primárias (custos de produção, quantidade de ATR1 e produtividade física da cana-de-açúcar) e fontes secundárias (valor da ATR). A rentabilidade para o fornecedor foi baseada no modelo CONSECANA, cujo sistema de pagamento ao fornecedor é calculado com base no rendimento de Açúcar Total Recuperável (ATR) por tonelada no ano safra.. Para os proprietários que arrendam terra para usina foi desenvolvido um modelo com base nos contratos efetuados entre proprietários e usinas. De uma forma geral, verifica-se que tanto fornecedores quanto proprietários que arrendam terra para usina apresentaram níveis de rentabilidade positivos durante o período considerado para o estudo. Os fornecedores apresentaram níveis de rentabilidade superiores aos dos proprietários que arrendam terra para usina, embora com maiores níveis de riscos, nas condições de variação de preços da ATR, quantidade de ATR e produtividade física identificados na região...
In Brazil, more specifically in São Paulo state, the agribusiness is witnessing a great development of the sugar cane industry. Sugar cane plantation is present in approximately 5.2 million hectares with a prevision for expansion of 50% within four year. As a result, the perspective of the demand for agro energy implies in sugar cane being one of the most attractive investment of the moment. The main expansion form of sugar cane is occurring though land leasing. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the profitability of land use for production of sugar cane in the São Paulo North Region, under risk conditions, from two views: the owner operator and the cash rental operator. It was used Monte Carlo Method to simulate the critical variables, which were collected from primary sources 4 (effective operational costs, amount of ATR, and sugar cane yield) and from secondary sources (value of ATR). The profitability for the owner operator was based on CONSECANA model, which payment system for suppliers is based on total sugar recovered (ATR) content. For the cash rentals, it has been developed a model based on the contracts made between the land owners and mills. Overall, it appears that both suppliers as tenants showed positive profitability levels during the period considered for the study. The owner operators have higher levels of profitability comparing to cash rental owners, but with higher levels of risk in terms of variation in prices of ATR, ATR and yield identified in the region. A general recommendation from study is that land owners aversive to risk fits better to rent system, since the minimum return is greater than the profitability of owners operators. Moreover, if the producer is willing to production risk, the income may reach approximately 3 times that one obtained by the tenants. Key Words: Economic performance, risk, sugar cane crop.
In Brazil, more specifically in São Paulo state, the agribusiness is witnessing a great development of the sugar cane industry. Sugar cane plantation is present in approximately 5.2 million hectares with a prevision for expansion of 50% within four year. As a result, the perspective of the demand for agro energy implies in sugar cane being one of the most attractive investment of the moment. The main expansion form of sugar cane is occurring though land leasing. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the profitability of land use for production of sugar cane in the São Paulo North Region, under risk conditions, from two views: the owner operator and the cash rental operator. It was used Monte Carlo Method to simulate the critical variables, which were collected from primary sources 4 (effective operational costs, amount of ATR, and sugar cane yield) and from secondary sources (value of ATR). The profitability for the owner operator was based on CONSECANA model, which payment system for suppliers is based on total sugar recovered (ATR) content. For the cash rentals, it has been developed a model based on the contracts made between the land owners and mills. Overall, it appears that both suppliers as tenants showed positive profitability levels during the period considered for the study. The owner operators have higher levels of profitability comparing to cash rental owners, but with higher levels of risk in terms of variation in prices of ATR, ATR and yield identified in the region. A general recommendation from study is that land owners aversive to risk fits better to rent system, since the minimum return is greater than the profitability of owners operators. Moreover, if the producer is willing to production risk, the income may reach approximately 3 times that one obtained by the tenants. Key Words: Economic performance, risk, sugar cane crop.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Cana-de-açúcar, Desempenho economico, Arranjos contratuais, Modelo de rendabilidade, Economic performance, Risk, Sugar cane crop
Como citar
MIGUEL, Fernando Bergantini. Análise de rentabilidade e risco na produção de cana-de- açúcar na região norte do Estado de São Paulo sob dois tipos de arranjos contratuais. 2009. x, 71 f. Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual Paulista, Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas de Botucatu, 2009.