Taxa de câmbio e estratégia de crescimento econômico de longo prazo da China
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Data
2013-10-09
Autores
Carvalho, Noemi Marques de [UNESP]
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
Com sua reorientação econômica, em 1978, e início da implementação de uma série de reformas econômicas estruturais, a China logrou taxas médias de crescimento de seu produto de quase dois dígitos, ao longo das três décadas seguintes, além da melhora global de vários de seus indicadores sociais e macroeconômicos. Seu desempenho econômico, portanto, a coloca em posição de destaque, tanto com relação a outras economias em transição, quanto a economias em desenvolvimento. A abordagem da China para a reforma econômica não foi convencional, baseada em estratégias big bang, mas sim baseada em um modus operandi híbrido entre planejamento estatal e mercado, ou reforma dual-track. O modelo chinês, ao longo do tempo, consolidou-se como um modelo de crescimento econômico export-led, com forte crescimento e participação das exportações e dos investimentos no PIB. A administração da política econômica chinesa, de forma coordenada, coerente e coesa, a partir do uso de um instrumental com objetivos múltiplos, tem permitido ao país obter significativa estabilidade macroeconômica, objetivo de política econômica mais amplo que a mera estabilidade de preços, por exemplo. Nesse sentido, a política cambial chinesa, ao administrar a taxa de câmbio nominal, e, em conjunto com o estabelecimento de controles nos fluxos de capitais, tem garantido ao país desde seu isolamento a crises financeiras e forte desempenho exportador, à baixas taxa de juros e inflação, exercendo importante papel na promoção da estabilidade macroeconômica chinesa, contribuindo, assim, para o crescimento da produtividade total de fatores e dos investimentos em capital fixo, e, consequentemente, para o crescimento do produto de longo prazo como previsto na literatura
From its economic reorientation in 1978 and early implementation of a series of structural economic reforms, China has achieved average product growth rates of two digits over the past three decades, not to mention the overall improvement of several of its macroeconomic and social indicators. Its economic performance, therefore, puts it in a prominent position regarding both other transition economies and developing economies. China's approach to economic reform was not conventional or based on big bang strategies but based on a hybrid modus operandi between market and state planning, or dual-track reform. The Chinese model, over time, has established itself as an export-led growth model, with strong growth and share of exports and investments in GDP. The administration of Chinese economic policy in a coordinated, coherent and cohesive manner, from the use of policy instruments with multiple objectives has enabled the country to achieve significant macroeconomic stability, a much broader economic policy objective than mere price stability, for instance. In this sense, China's management of its nominal exchange rate, and together with the establishment of controls over capital flows, has secured the country with isolation from financial crisis, strengthen its export performance , kept its interest rate and inflation in a low level, as well as played an important role in promoting China's macroeconomic stability, thereby contributing to the growth of total factor productivity and investment in fixed capital, and hence to the growth of long-term product, just as supported by the concerning literature
From its economic reorientation in 1978 and early implementation of a series of structural economic reforms, China has achieved average product growth rates of two digits over the past three decades, not to mention the overall improvement of several of its macroeconomic and social indicators. Its economic performance, therefore, puts it in a prominent position regarding both other transition economies and developing economies. China's approach to economic reform was not conventional or based on big bang strategies but based on a hybrid modus operandi between market and state planning, or dual-track reform. The Chinese model, over time, has established itself as an export-led growth model, with strong growth and share of exports and investments in GDP. The administration of Chinese economic policy in a coordinated, coherent and cohesive manner, from the use of policy instruments with multiple objectives has enabled the country to achieve significant macroeconomic stability, a much broader economic policy objective than mere price stability, for instance. In this sense, China's management of its nominal exchange rate, and together with the establishment of controls over capital flows, has secured the country with isolation from financial crisis, strengthen its export performance , kept its interest rate and inflation in a low level, as well as played an important role in promoting China's macroeconomic stability, thereby contributing to the growth of total factor productivity and investment in fixed capital, and hence to the growth of long-term product, just as supported by the concerning literature
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Palavras-chave
Câmbio, Desenvolvimento econômico, Desenvolvimento econômico - China, Economic development
Como citar
CARVALHO, Noemi Marques de. Taxa de câmbio e estratégia de crescimento econômico de longo prazo da China. 2013. 128 f. Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho, Faculdade de Ciências e Letras (Campus de Araraquara), 2013.