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DINÂMICA ESPAÇO-TEMPORAL DE MANGUEZAIS E SUAS 

RELAÇÕES COM VARIÁVEIS CLIMÁTICAS  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PRYSCILLA RESAFFE CAMARGO 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SÃO VICENTE 

2025 

UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL PAULISTA                                                      

“JÚLIO DE MESQUITA FILHO” 

   Instituto de Biociências                                                                      

Câmpus do Litoral Paulista 

 



          

 

 

 

UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL PAULISTA 

“Júlio de Mesquita Filho” 

INSTITUTO DE BIOCIÊNCIAS  

CÂMPUS DO LITORAL PAULISTA 
 

 

 

 

 

DINÂMICA ESPAÇO-TEMPORAL DE MANGUEZAIS E SUAS 

RELAÇÕES COM VARIÁVEIS CLIMÁTICAS  

 

 

 

PRYSCILLA RESAFFE CAMARGO 

MILENE FORNARI 

 

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto de Biociências, 

Campus do Litoral Paulista, UNESP, para obtenção 

do título de Mestra no Programa de Pós-Graduação 

em Biodiversidade de Ambientes Costeiros. 

 

 

 

SÃO VICENTE 

2025 

UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL PAULISTA                                                      

“JÚLIO DE MESQUITA FILHO” 

   Instituto de Biociências                                                                      

Câmpus do Litoral Paulista 

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sistema de geração automática de fichas catalográficas da Unesp. Dados fornecidos pelo autor(a). 

C172d 

Camargo, Pryscilla Resaffe 

Dinâmica espaço-temporal de manguezais e suas relações com 

variáveis climáticas / Pryscilla  Resaffe Camargo. -- São Vicente, 2025 

88 f. 

 

Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual Paulista  (UNESP), 

Instituto de Biociências, São Vicente 

Orientadora: Milene Fornari 

1. MapBiomas. 2. Precipitação. 3. Temperatura. 4. Modelos 

aditivos generalizados. 5. Google Earth Engine. I. Título. 



AGRADECIMENTOS 

Agradeço primeiramente à professora Milene Fornari pela orientação dedicada e pelo 

apoio técnico e intelectual durante todo o desenvolvimento desta pesquisa. Agradeço também 

as professoras Natália de Moraes Rudorff, Rafaela Lisboa Costa e aos professores Gustavo 

Maruyama Mori, Yoannis Dominguez pelas valiosas contribuições que enriqueceram este 

trabalho. 

As colegas do DELAB, Ana, Bié, Isabela, Nicolle e aos colegas do ECOMOL Gabriel 

e Pietra pelo compartilhamento de ideias e pelo incentivo nos momentos desafiadores. 

À UNESP e à CAPES pelos recursos e financiamento que possibilitaram este estudo.  

A todas as amigas que, direta ou indiretamente, contribuíram para esta conquista. 

Obrigada Patrícia, Geni, Nathali, Laís, Letícia Stela, Ingrid e Letícia Scalco. 

E claro, à minha família: Alice, Marcos, Rosana e em especial ao Kilder (o famoso 

fofinho, rs) pelo amor incondicional e pela compreensão durante esta jornada. 

 

O presente trabalho foi realizado com apoio da Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de 

Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brasil (CAPES) – Código de Financiamento 001. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



RESUMO  

Manguezais são vitais para a resiliência costeira, sequestro de carbono e biodiversidade, mas enfrentam 

ameaças crescentes frente as mudanças climáticas e pressões antropogênicas. Nas últimas décadas com 

o sensoriamento remoto a compreensão da dinâmica espaço-temporal dos manguezais tem avançado, 

porém pouca atenção tem sido dada para reconhecer a relação dessas mudanças com os fatores 

climáticos. Neste estudo utilizamos dois conjuntos de dados para investigar mudanças espaço-temporais 

das florestas de mangue: i) área anual (km2) das florestas de mangue entre 1985 e 2022 de áreas 

protegidas da Mata Atlântica; ii) dados climáticos (precipitação, temperatura do ar) obtidos de 30 

estações meteorológicas. Para integrar o conjunto de dados, capturar padrões e interações complexas 

entre a dinâmica das áreas de manguezais e os fatores climáticos empregamos modelos aditivos 

generalizados (GAM). As principais descobertas são: i) A tendência é de crescimento dessas áreas, 

porém a variação espaço-temporal das florestas de mangue difere conforme as regiões e o tempo. Entre 

1985 e 2022 os manguezais em Peruíbe e Iguape registraram crescimento moderado (+11%), por sua 

vez, os manguezais em Cananéia exibiram maior expansão (+28%), enquanto os manguezais de 

Antonina, Guaraqueçaba, Paranaguá e Guaratuba tiveram os menores ganhos (+5%). Os principais 

preditores das mudanças de áreas de florestas de mangue foram: a precipitação acumulada (Pacum) que 

impactou negativamente os manguezais em Peruíbe e Iguape. Porém o aumento das temperaturas 

máximas (Tmax) pode ter favorecido a expansão das florestas de mangues em Cananéia enquanto o 

aumento das temperaturas mínimas (Tmin) foi fator positivo em Antonina, Guaraqueçaba, Paranaguá e 

Guaratuba. Em conjunto, essas descobertas demonstram que a dinâmica dos manguezais é influenciada 

de maneiras distinta por fatores climáticos. Isso sugere que estratégias de conservação genéricas podem 

ser insuficientes para proteger esses ecossistemas, destacando a necessidade de abordagens específicas 

que considerem as particularidades de impacto de cada fator climático nas áreas de floresta de mangue. 

 

Palavras-chave: precipitação, temperatura, modelos aditivos generalizados, MapBiomas, Google Earth 

Engine.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



ABSTRACT 

Mangroves are vital for coastal resilience, carbon sequestration and biodiversity, but are facing 

increasing threats from climate change and anthropogenic pressures. In recent decades, remote sensing 

has advanced studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of mangroves, but little attention has been paid to 

recognizing the relationship between these changes and climatic factors. In this study we used two sets 

of data to investigate spatio-temporal changes in mangrove forests: i) annual area (km2) of mangrove 

forests between 1985 and 2022 in protected areas of the Atlantic Forest; ii) climate data (precipitation, 

air temperature) obtained from 30 weather stations. To integrate the data set and capture complex 

patterns and interactions between the dynamics of mangrove areas and climatic factors, we used 

generalized additive models (GAM). The main findings are: i) The spatio-temporal variation of 

mangrove forests differs according to region and time. Between 1985 and 2022, mangroves in Peruíbe 

and Iguape registered moderate growth (+11%), mangroves in Cananéia exhibited the greatest expansion 

(+28%), while mangroves in Antonina, Guaraqueçaba, Paranaguá and Guaratuba had the smallest gains 

(+5%). The main predictors of mangrove area changes were: cumulative precipitation (Pacum), which 

negatively impacted mangroves in Peruíbe and Iguape. However, increasing maximum temperatures 

(Tmax) may have favored mangrove expansion in Cananéia, while rising minimum temperatures (Tmin) 

had a positive effect in Antonina, Guaraqueçaba, Paranaguá, and Guaratuba. Together, these findings 

demonstrate that mangrove dynamics are distinctly influenced by climatic factors. This suggests that 

generic conservation strategies may be insufficient to protect these ecosystems, highlighting the need 

for tailored approaches that consider the specific impacts of each climatic factor on mangrove forest 

areas. 

 

Keywords: precipitation, temperature, generalized additive models, MapBiomas, Google Earth 

Engine. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

SUMÁRIO 

1. PROBLEMÁTICA .......................................................................................... 1 

2. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................... 2 

3. MATERIAL AND METHODS ...................................................................... 3 

2.1 Study area .................................................................................................... 3 

2.2 Quantification of mangrove area ................................................................. 7 

2.3 Climatic and dataset .................................................................................... 8 

2.4 Data analysis and statistics ........................................................................ 12 

4. RESULTS ....................................................................................................... 14 

3.1 Trends of mangrove area across 37 years ................................................. 14 

3.2 Spearman’s correlation analysis ................................................................ 18 

3.3 Trends in precipitation and temperature .................................................... 21 

3.4 Trends in SST ............................................................................................ 24 

3.4 Generalized additive model to mangroves ................................................ 27 

5. DISCUSSION ................................................................................................ 33 

4.1 Spatial-temporal change of mangrove forest ............................................ 33 

4.2 The impact of climatic dynamics on mangrove forests ............................ 35 

6. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................. 39 

References ........................................................................................................... 41 

Suplementary data ............................................................................................... 64 

 



 

 1. PROBLEMÁTICA  

Os manguezais são ecossistemas com relevância ecológica e socioeconômica, 

funcionando como berçários marinhos, barreiras naturais contra a erosão e sumidouros 

de carbono essenciais na mitigação das mudanças climáticas (Nagelkerken et al., 2008; 

Donato et al., 2011; Friess et al., 2020; Adame et al., 2021). Entretanto, esses ecossistemas 

únicos estão cada vez mais vulneráveis às pressões climáticas, oceanográficas e 

antropogênicas (Sippo et al., 2018; Fan et al., 2024). O aumento do nível do mar, 

mudanças de precipitação e temperatura do ar e do mar, além da intensificação das 

oscilações climáticas globais induzem mudanças na estrutura das florestas de mangue 

afetando sua capacidade de expansão, regeneração e armazenamento de carbono (Ward 

et al., 2016; Hickey et al., 2021; Friess et al., 2022).  Apesar disso são escassos os estudos 

sobre dinâmica das florestas de mangue que investigam os efeitos integrados que 

múltiplos fatores climáticos exercem sobre as áreas de floresta de mangue ao longo do 

tempo em diferentes regiões. 

Nesta perspectiva, este estudo discute a dinâmica espaço-temporal das florestas 

de mangue em áreas protegidas da Mata Atlântica nos estados de São Paulo e Paraná 

frente aos fatores climáticos. O conjunto de resultados obtidos neste estudo poderá 

auxiliar em planejamentos de conservação e o manejo sustentável dos manguezais o que 

garante sua funcionalidade ecológica e os serviços ecossistêmicos. 

 

2. INTRODUCTION  

Mangroves are characterized by halophytic trees and shrubs typical of tropical and 

subtropical intertidal zones and constitute complex ecosystem influenced by the dynamics 

between marine and terrestrial environmental factors (Schaeffer-Novelli et al., 1990; 

Krauss et al., 2008; Lovelock et al., 2016). Recognized for their unique species 

composition, rich biological and socio-economic relevance, they provide multiple 

ecosystem services: (i) natural protection of the coastline against erosion, (ii) nursery and 

habitat for various species,(iii) water filtration and nutrient cycling, (iv) sequestration of 

carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and (v) sediment retention (Kristensen et al., 2008; 

Taillardat et al., 2018; Sasmito et al., 2019; Hespen et al., 2022; Yan et al., 2024). 

Moreover, the collective economic valuation of mangroves has been estimated at 

$194,000 per hectare ($2.7 trillion per year), contributing to thirteen Sustainable 

Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and 



 

Production), SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 14 (Life Below Water), and SDG 15 (Life 

on Land) (Barbier et al., 2011; Costanza et al., 2014; Eyzaguirre et al., 2023).  

Despite their ecological and socio-economic importance, mangroves face 

significant threats from climate change and human activities, with global losses exceeding 

with 20%–35% of global mangrove extent lost over the last 55 years (Polidoro et al., 

2010; Hamilton & Casey, 2016; Goldberg et al., 2020). 

Remote sensing technology has shown success in monitoring of spatial-temporal 

change in the mangrove forests in Brazil (Freitas et al., 2017; Pereira et al., 2016; 

Bosquilia & Muller-Karger, 2021; Diniz et al., 2019; Moschetto et al., 2021; Lassalle et 

al., 2022; de Lima Freires et al., 2023; Lopes et al., 2023; Lima Miranda et al., 2024; 

Vanin et al.,2024) and worldwide (Giri, 2011; Bunting, 2018; Halder et al., 2021; Bunting 

et al., 2022; S. Hamilton & Presotto, 2024). Although these studies are valuable for 

identifying changes in mangrove areas, they are inconclusive or absent in relation to 

factors that drive their spatial dynamics over time.  

Nonetheless, most of the literature focuses mainly on the role of climatic variables, 

as for example: temperature (Cavanaugh et al., 2019; Kang et al., 2024a; Osland et al., 

2016; Saintilan et al., 2014; Ward et al., 2016b) or precipitation (Chapman, 1976; G. B. 

de Lima & Galvani, 2010; Jennerjahn et al., 2017). But the interaction between these 

different variables and the impact of each one on the mangrove forest area is often 

neglected. In this context, our study has the following objectives: 

• To quantify and analyze the variation of mangrove forest areas between 

Peruíbe-Guaratuba in the period from 1985 to 2022. 

• To analyze the historical series of climate data (precipitation and air 

temperature) from 30 meteorological stations to identify the patterns of climate 

dynamics between 1985 and 2022. 

• To integrate the set of results to evaluate possible relationships between the 

spatio-temporal changes of mangrove forest areas and climate data. 

The results obtained in this study will provide essential information for the 

conservation and sustainable management of mangroves, ensuring their ecological 

functionality and the ecosystem services they offer to society. 

 

 



 

3. CONCLUSION 

Our study shows that during the period from 1985 to 2022 mangrove forest areas 

expanded, however, this growth did not occur in a continuous and uniform manner. 

Among the regions, the mangrove in Peruíbe and Iguape showed moderate gross gain 

(+11%), the mangrove in Cananéia showed the most stable growth pattern, with the 

highest gross gain (28%). In contrast, the mangrove in Antonina, Guaraqueçaba, 

Paranaguá and Guaratuba showed the lowest gross gain (5%) between 1985 and 2022. 

The spatial and temporal patterns with mangrove gains and losses among the regions 

characterize two main trends. The spatiotemporal variability revealed that between 1985 

and 1999 was characterized by the lowest growth, with losses and gains. We identified a 

turning point in the year 2000, with a notable spread of mangrove areas across all regions. 

During the entire 2000–2022 period, mangrove areas were predominantly larger than in 

the first period, with the Cananéia mangrove showing the largest growth (+28%), 

followed by the Peruíbe and Iguape mangroves (+11%) and Antonina, Guaraqueçaba, 

Paranaguá and Guaratuba (+5%). The factors that explain this dynamic of mangrove 

forests were the combination of increased accumulated precipitation (negative effect) and 

increased air temperature (positive effect). While some areas showed greater growth, 

others had more limited responses. These findings reinforce the importance of 

considering the impact of each climate variable in understanding the response of 

mangroves to environmental changes and in guiding adaptive and region-specific 

conservation strategies. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

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