DANIELLE BLAZYS CORREA INCREASED BURNED AREA IN THE PANTANAL OVER THE PAST TWO DECADES 2022 DANIELLE BLAZYS CORREA INCREASED BURNED AREA IN THE PANTANAL OVER THE PAST TWO DECADES Advisor: Prof. Enner Alcântara Co-Advisor: Prof. Renata Libonati São José dos Campos 2022 Master’s Thesis presented to the São Paulo State University (Unesp), Institute of Science and Technology, São José dos Campos; National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden) as part of the requirements of the master’s degree for the Graduate Program in NATURAL DISASTERS. Area: Natural Disasters. Research Line: Instrumentation and data analysis. EXAMINATION BOARD Enner Alcântara (Advisor) São Paulo State University (Unesp) Institute of Science and Technology São José dos Campos José Antônio Marengo Orsini (Board Member) São Paulo State University (Cemaden) Institute of Science and Technology São José dos Campos Fábio de Oliveira Roque (Board Member) Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS) Institute of Biosciences Cidade Universitária, Campo Grande São José dos Campos, March 2022 AKNOWLEDGEMENTS The intensity of the last two years of my master's trajectory, especially when occurring during a hard and prolonged Pandemic, showed me once again how important it is to have special people around us, even if not physically. Therefore, I could not be more thankful for the key pieces that, in different ways, strengthened me to complete this stage of life. I’m thankful to the UNESP and all its employees, that even during such a delicate moment for Brazilian science and education, stood up to keep the high-quality education standards, offering full support to students. In this context, a special thank you to my Advisor, Enner, who betted and trusted in me since the beginning, supported and encouraged my ideas, pushed me to keep ahead when hard moments appeared and were always available to help me solve my questions. I also want to thank my fiancé Victor Hugo, my love, who is present during all my steps ever since we met, during my achievements and frustrations, celebrations and relaxing moments. He helps me to take life easier and appreciate it even more. Thank you for letting me share with you my dreams, insecurities, the daily small happy moments, and for encouraging me to face challenges with my head up saying how much you believe in my potential. I want to thank my parents, Eliane and William, for the unconditional love and care, that through my whole life made everything easier and more comfortable, removed significant invisible stones from my path so that I could dedicate myself to studying what I chose and building my career with commitment the way I desired. At last, I am grateful for all the sincere moments of listening and exchange shared with my friends and family. You are amazing. All we have are us. SUMMARY ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. 4 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 5 2 ARTICLE .......................................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Article – Blazys, D. C., Alcantara, E., Libonati, R., Massi, K. G., Park, E. Increased burned area in the Pantanal over the past two decades. ................................. 8 3 FINAL CONSIDERATIONS ......................................................................................... 22 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 25 BLAZYS, D.C. Increased burned area in the Pantanal over the past two decades. São José dos Campos. São Paulo State University (Unesp), Institute of Science and Technology; National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), 2022. ABSTRACT Wildfires are behaving differently now if compared to other time in history in relation to frequency, intensity and affected ecosystems. In Brazil, unprecedent fires are being experienced in the last 10 years and to prevent and minimize similar disasters we must understand more about the natural and human influences on fires on each ecosystem as well as the gaps to fire combat strategies. The Brazilian Pantanal is the largest contiguous wetland in the world and a complex environmental system. In 2020 Pantanal experienced a catastrophic wildfire which burned out of control that shocked the world. The fire in Pantanal is expected to escalate given the increase in drought episodes, inadequate fire management strategies and weak environment regulations. In this study, we analyzed recent patterns and changes in fire frequency across the Pantanal based on land use and cover classes. The inter-annual variability of the fire and land cover changes between 2000 and 2021 was assessed using burned area (BA) from MCD64A1 V.6 product and land use and land cover (LULC) data from Landsat imagery. Our results showed that while smaller BA were more frequent for all LULC, forest and grassland classes represented much larger BA with lower frequencies. Cropland showed the smallest burned area among the LULC. Given the differences in the rates of recovery and regeneration after fire for different classes, Pantanal should be systematically monitored to develop a more effective fire combat strategy. We understand that our work demonstrates fundamental spatiotemporal clues to managers to strategically approach unusual fires with result of what periods were exceptional burned according to LULC classes, as observed for Forests in 2020 and an exponential burning growth in cropland during late dry (LD) season since 2014. Keywords: Land use and land cover changes, Burned areas, Tropical wetland, Extreme events 5 1 INTRODUCTION On 13th October 2020, The New York Times wrote: “The World's Largest Tropical Wetland Has Become an Inferno”. The mentioned wetland was the Brazilian Pantanal, while the inferno refers to massive wildfires. This biome, globally known as a rich biodiversity neotropical wetland, had one third of its area affected by fires in 2020 (LIBONATI et al., 2020) and around 17 million vertebrates direct killed (TOMAS et al., 2022). It was considered the biggest fire event in history, with an increase of 376% in the last two decades and only 43% of the area unaffected (DAMASCENO-JUNIOR et al., 2021, GARCIA et al., 2021). The previous year (2019) was also marked by high numbers of burnings. In fact, an increasing trend of fire foci from 2000 to 2015 has been identified on South Pantanal (Mato Grosso do Sul State: Oliveira-Junior, 2020), with drought patterns also becoming more frequent (THIELEN et al. 2020, CARDOSO AND MARCUZZO, 2010). However, fire is a phenomenon that has many faces and its effects can be beneficial or harmful to biodiversity conservancy and human lives depending on where and how they burn (HARDESTY et al. 2005). Fire shapes biogeochemical cycles in ecosystems, influencing soil nutrients availability, water quality and atmospheric composition (PEREIRA et al., 2018, DE OLIVEIRA et al., 2020), affecting directly and indirectly fauna and flora species diversity, abundance and distribution, beyond socioeconomic dimensions (PAUSAS AND PARR, 2018; STEENVOORDEN et al., 2019). Fire prone ecosystems presents a framework where plants' physiology, phenology and metabolism has evolved through millions of years in order to keep its features with the respective fire regime, after affecting the corresponding secondary organisms in the food net (HARDESTY et al. 2005, PAUSAS AND PARR, 2018, DURIGAN et al., 2020). Reinforcing natural fire cycles are beneficial and life-sustaining in ecosystems that evolved with fire, as occurs with Brazilian savannah (Cerrado) (HARDESTY et al. 2005). According to Sommers et al, 2011, these fire regimes can be characterized by attributes that can be listed as patterns in burning season, fire interval and return, fire frequency, burned layer (ground, crown, understory/ sub-canopy), burned area, fire-intensity, duration, among others and depending on the context, only some of these aspects can be predominant in a fire regime characterization (ARRUDA et al., 2016). Grasslands, woodlands, savannas and wetlands ecosystems, for https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Steenvoorden%2C+Jasper 6 example, are characterized by frequent, low-intensity surface fires that act to maintain an open structure allowing sunlight to penetrate (HARDESTY et al. 2005, FIDELIS et al. 2007). On the other hand, fire sensitive environments, as tropical moist broadleaf forests of Amazon basin, do not present sufficient evolutionary traces to respond to this disturbance frequently. Therefore, wildfires (rare events of fire that usually takes large proportions) reflect changing phytophysiognomic aspects and environment’s functions through time. It can entail some species diminishing and extinguishing, being replaced by others and leading to degradation and land cover conversion. Frequent, large, and intense fires were, until recently, rare events in these kinds of ecosystems (HARDESTY et al. 2005, ALENCAR et al, 2015). The current more frequent fires are primarily associated with human activity, used as a tool to clear land after deforestation or maintaining existing farmland and pasture (HARDESTY et al. 2005, BOWMAN et al., 2020). In turn when it occurs in drought periods, there is an increase in risk of fires (LIBONATI et al, 2021). In this sense, general reasons for fire occurrences and flame intensity are related to the availability of elements involved in the combustion process being oxygen, flammable fuel load and heat. Climate conditions and its variability that leverage to oxygen depletion or availability or to dry biomass accumulation due evapotranspiration (as wind speed, air temperature, precipitation, pressure), beyond natural or anthropic sources of ignition, are key parameters to be monitored pre, during and after fires (JOLLY et al., 2015, LIBONATI et al., 2020). Air pressure and temperature gradients can boost wind speed (KARNAUSKAS et al., 2018) which can spread flames through biomass available as fuel, for example, expanding burned areas. Ecologists believe that fires are behavering differently now if compared with other time in history due ignitions by humans and human-induced climate change, especially in fire-sensitive tropical rainforests, retrofitting climate change by contributing with GHG emissions (HARDESTY et al. 2005, BOWMAN et al., 2020). For a better delimitation of the multiple consequences of 2020’s megafire in Pantanal, what exactly burned and has been burned inside Pantanal can be further explored. Once fire affects fauna and flora with different intensities and timescales, how it distributes organisms in Pantanal is not yet fully understood (JUNK AND CUNHA, 2005). More detailed research is needed on the weather conditions that fan fires, as well as the influences of ecology and management (LIBONATI et al., 2020). Information concerning fire in tropical wetlands are scant and the major fire studies come from savannahs and forest areas (DAMASCENO- 7 JUNIOR et al., 2021). In Brazil, most of fire research has been developed in the Cerrado Biome (PIVELLO et al., 2021) Yet 2020 fires in Pantanal resulted in recent important advances in explaining fire dynamics in the biome and some of the crucial structural gaps in local fire management could then be already spotted, knowledge about the region’s fire regime need to shore up regarding a multidisciplinary approach (LIBONATI et al., 2020). Comparisons between fire over different land use and land covers, considering particularities of availability of fuel loads, and fire seasons with evident inter-annual projected trends were not found in the literature. In addition, Libonati et al. (2020), Garcia et al. (2021), indicates that studies about Pantanal fires and associations with deforestation remain unclear. Understanding more about past and current variability in Pantanal fire occurrence in different land cover is central to predicting future fire frequencies, extensions, intensity, seasonality, and severity and to better anticipate new trends and disasters, as already raised for other Brazilian biomes. Due to the predicted increase in drought episodes (THIELEN et al., 2020), inadequate fire management strategies, lax laws, and weak environment regulations (LIBONATI et al., 2020) we hypothesized a growing BA trend in Pantanal. In different seasons and land use and land cover (LULC) classes, we hypothesized that BA are increasing in wetland, forest, savannah, grassland, pasture, and cropland areas inside the Pantanal and relatively, in terms of the respective class area, it remains stable in rural managed portions as grassland (also used by traditional cattle ranching), pasture, and cropland classes. This work aims to analyze de fire occurrence in the Pantanal in the last two decades by land use and land cover class. The objectives were: i. Get time series of LULC of Pantanal from 2000 to 2021; ii. Quantify and compare historical monthly BA for different LULC in Pantanal; iii. Track trends of burned area for each LULC in Pantanal; iv. Map burn frequencies by season in Pantanal; v. Compare burn frequency among LULC. 8 2 ARTICLE 2.1 Article – Blazys, D. C., Alcantara, E., Libonati, R., Massi, K. G., Park, E. Increased burned area in the Pantanal over the past two decades. Science of the Total Environment 835 (2022) 155386. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155386. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155386 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 3 FINAL CONSIDERATIONS Despite the significant remaining natural vegetation in Pantanal (more than 80%), it does not mean that there are no relevant pressures for land conversion and degradation and susceptibility for major disasters as 2020 wildfires in the biome. Growth of pasture areas, reflecting an intensive anthropogenic activity on basin higher catchment areas followed by cropland settlement (GUERRA et al., 2020) could be also seen in our results in lower lands. On the other hand, humid areas and grassland yearly areas are more susceptible to weather conditions of dry/ warmer versus humid periods as also discussed by Marengo et al. (2021) and shrubland area decreasing. The months with highest values of ABA for Pantanal were found for August and September when lowest rainfall mean occurs and mean river levels starts to decline on southwest portion. But, accordingly to Menezes et al. (2022), lightening dischargers, natural fire ignitors, are concentrated from December to February. During dry season, ignitors are considered human related and agricultural practices when cattle ranchers use fire to renew grazing are applied. Beside 2020, the years of 2005 and 2001 also burned major areas in grassland class considering specific months. In addition, with 2020, 2002 and 2019 had also prolonged burning seasons in Pantanal, from July to November depending on the year, all of them reaching more than 19000 km² of ABA. Proportionally to the respective class area (RBA), forest, humid areas, and pasture appear in contrast to other classes in 2020 burns, being highly affected while in 2005 the RBA highlight is for grassland, pasture and savannah. Relatively, forests, grasslands and croplands were classes with higher burned areas especially during dry season months (August and September) and pastures, with lower registers than the others LULC. In lower scale we saw that since 2014, cropland burnings are growing exponentially during LD season. These differences reinforce that when accounting BAs at regional level, we must understand and compare values from multiple perspectives, especially when burns can have different drivers and implications to fauna, flora and climate depending on LULC and periods of the year. A tropical forest burn result in more GHG emissions and vegetation recovery time than grassland burns, for example while for grasslands and savannas, burning is an important ecological factor (HARDESTY et al. 2005). So, fires can be detrimental for some parts of Pantanal (HOFFMANN et al., 2009) 23 Most of Pantanal was burnt at least once in the last twenty years. Across the 243 analyzed months, the maximum burn frequency reached 19 times that of fire recurrence in the same pixel, specially over current (2019 map) grassland class, in south Pantanal. Smaller burned areas were frequent for all LULC classes. As for larger burned areas (more than 8.000 km²), they were observed in forest and grassland at a lower frequency. These results suggest that burned spots with small areas in Pantanal is consistent for the last 20 years. But still, our results of burned areas for the last 20 years across different LULC in Pantanal, showed that the 2020 fires were the most important event even though the biome has been continuously burning along the past two decades. This is likely due to severe droughts in the region caused by a decrease in precipitation and river levels (MARENGO et al. 2021, LÁZARO et al. 2020, OLIVEIRA-JÚNIOR et al. 2020). Extreme droughts in 2020 and 2005 for all LULC classes coincided with great fire events reported in other studies (CARDOSO AND MARCUZZO, 2010; MARENGO et al. 2021). Coupled with 2019 and 2020's climate and biomass conditions, wildfires in Pantanal reached huge proportions. 2020’s fire season was exceptional, but conditions that led to these blazes, such as increase of ignition sources, biomass availability, drier and warmer atmosphere, are becoming increasingly common (LIBONATI et al., 2020). On the Pantanal portion of Mato Grosso do Sul State, Oliveira-Junior (2020) had already identified a growth trend of fire foci with fire dataset ranging from 2000 to 2015. We hypothesized a growing trend in burned areas in all LULC in Pantanal, especially in grasslands, savannas and pastures. We have found an increase in burned areas, but in cropland land use class. In general, cropland expansion does not imply in burnings once it settles in older pasture areas, an already converted LULC class from natural to anthropic stage (CHUVIECO et al., 2021). The land use changes involved with deforestation of native vegetation traditionally involve fire, as when for opening new pasture areas (ARCHIBALD et al., 2013). deforestation and the increase in large agribusiness properties in Pantanal could be linked to these recent fire events (MOTA et al., 2019; MARQUES et al., 2021). The higher BAs proportions found on native vegetation compared to anthropic managed areas also highlight a possible of lack of fire control and adequate management. According to Damasceno-Junior et al. (2021), fire helps to reduce biomass in grasslands. This represents high fire frequency but less intensity in each event (ELOY et al. 2018). Nevertheless, it is important to note that the intensity of the LD season fires is higher as they release more heat and have higher flames and combustor factor (DOS SANTOS et al. 24 2021). Fires are thus, more destructive in the LD season than early dry season. As a result, fire ignited in the grassland can spread to the savannas and forest due open areas, wind and dry vegetation. Almost 17% of Pantanal has been deforested using fire, mainly the savanna areas (ALHO, 2008). Relying directly on fire data, most studies in the Pantanal have focused on a single discipline, for example, plant ecology (LIBONATI et al., 2020). Integrated knowledge about how fire distribution over Pantanal different phytophysiognomies and historical comparisons between land use and land cover were scarce until this present study. Different global BA products complement each other (CHUVIECO et al. 2018, LONG et al. 2019) once all of them has its limitations. 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