Cinquetti, Carlos Alberto [UNESP]Silva, Ricardo Goncalves2014-05-202014-05-202008-09-01Developing Economies. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing, v. 46, n. 3, p. 290-314, 2008.0012-1533http://hdl.handle.net/11449/6394Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s' debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long-run approach. Revising this long-run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade-policy reforms, with a model in which terms-of-trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.290-314engdebt crisisshocksstabilization policiestrade policiesinequalitystructural equationsArtigo10.1111/j.1746-1049.2008.00067.xWOS:000258581300004Acesso restrito5827914674661969