Fundamentos da análise geográfica da difusão espacial das mortes por agressão no espaço urbano de Belém/PA (2000-2012)
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2017-07-06
Autores
Costa, Tiago Barreto de Andrade [UNESP]
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
A mortalidade por agressão no Brasil desde pelo menos o início de 1980 vem apresentando um recrudescimento linear, em paralelo ao contexto de produção das periferias urbanas. A desagregação desse fenômeno em escalas de maior detalhe, entretanto, permite-nos perceber que esse crescimento linear é na verdade o resultado de diversas dinâmicas locais, várias delas com características epidêmicas. Isto é, crescimentos abruptos fora do padrão histórico de dada localidade, portanto, crescimentos não-lineares. De acordo com a análise proposta no presente trabalho, identificamos Belém/PA enquanto um desses contextos epidêmicos de agressões letais. Tais expressões de violência naquela cidade vêm crescendo fora de sua dinâmica costumeira desde o início dos anos 2000 e a expressão geográfica desse fenômeno tem sido a difusão das mortes pelo espaço intraurbano. Dessa forma, propomos enquanto tese que tal propagação espacial da problemática, sendo uma típica expressão de difusão sobre o espaço geográfico, não se dá de forma homogênea em todas as direções a partir de um foco. Antes, segue por caminhos que oferecem condições mais favoráveis à epidemia (corredores de difusão) e evita aqueles mais desfavoráveis (barreiras à difusão). Enfim, no presente trabalho argumentamos no sentido de demonstrar essa dinâmica espaço-temporal peculiar do crescimento dos homicídios em Belém nos últimos anos, a partir de uma abordagem dos conceitos de epidemia e difusão espacial calcada em análise de dados espaciais. Ficou demonstrado, com base nessa análise, que os homicídios nessa metrópole brasileira têm alta correlação espacial, o que aponta para a necessidade dos fundamentos teóricos e metodológicos da Geografia na análise dessa problemática no contexto brasileiro.
Since at least 1980 the homicide mortality on Brazil has increased linearly at the same time of the urban slums has being shaped. However, in a larger zoom into the fenomeno, we can to see this linear growth is a result of several local dynamics, some of which are epidemic. That is, abrupt growth outside the historical pattern of a given locality, therefore, nonlinear growth. According to the analysis proposed in the present study, we identified Belém/PA as one of those epidemic contexts of lethal violence. Such expressions of violence in that city have been growing out of their usual dynamics since the early 2000s and the geographic expression of this phenomenon has been the spread of deaths through intraurban space. In this way, we propose as thesis that such spread of the problematic, as a typical expression of the diffusion on the geographical space, does not take place homogeneously in all directions from a focus. Indeed, it follows paths that offer more favorable conditions to the epidemic (diffusion channels) and avoid the more unfavorable ones (barriers to diffusion). Therefore, using a spatial data analysis approach, in the present work we argue to demonstrating this peculiar space-time dynamics of the present-day increase in the Belém’s homicides events. We do this from an approach of the concepts of epidemic and spatial diffusion based on spatial data analysis. It was demonstrated that the homicides in this Brazilian metropolis have a high spatial correlation, which points to the need of the theoretical and methodological foundations of Geography in the analysis of this problem in the Brazilian context.
Since at least 1980 the homicide mortality on Brazil has increased linearly at the same time of the urban slums has being shaped. However, in a larger zoom into the fenomeno, we can to see this linear growth is a result of several local dynamics, some of which are epidemic. That is, abrupt growth outside the historical pattern of a given locality, therefore, nonlinear growth. According to the analysis proposed in the present study, we identified Belém/PA as one of those epidemic contexts of lethal violence. Such expressions of violence in that city have been growing out of their usual dynamics since the early 2000s and the geographic expression of this phenomenon has been the spread of deaths through intraurban space. In this way, we propose as thesis that such spread of the problematic, as a typical expression of the diffusion on the geographical space, does not take place homogeneously in all directions from a focus. Indeed, it follows paths that offer more favorable conditions to the epidemic (diffusion channels) and avoid the more unfavorable ones (barriers to diffusion). Therefore, using a spatial data analysis approach, in the present work we argue to demonstrating this peculiar space-time dynamics of the present-day increase in the Belém’s homicides events. We do this from an approach of the concepts of epidemic and spatial diffusion based on spatial data analysis. It was demonstrated that the homicides in this Brazilian metropolis have a high spatial correlation, which points to the need of the theoretical and methodological foundations of Geography in the analysis of this problem in the Brazilian context.
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Palavras-chave
Espaço intraurbano, Epidemia de homicídios, Difusão espacial, Análise de dados espaciais, Intraurban space, Homicides epidemic, Spatial diffusion, Spatial data analysis