Impacto de ondas de calor na produção de ovos de poedeiras: sistema de previsão de mortalidade aplicado à cenários do IPCC
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Data
2018-02-01
Autores
Lamarca, Daniel Sá Freire [UNESP]
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Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
A temperatura da superfície do planeta vem aumentando no decorrer dos anos. O Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC) reúne pesquisadores de diversos países e áreas de atuação, tendo como objetivo gerar e organizar as informações formulando cenários futuros de variação de temperatura e precipitação, para que seja possível projetar os possíveis impactos socioeconômicos e ambientais. A agropecuária é um dos setores mais influenciado pelas variações do clima (temperatura e precipitação), visto que os processos de produção agrícola e de produção animal, para cada espécie, possuem faixas ideais de condições ambientais para obter níveis de produção adequados. Na produção de ovos de poedeiras, verifica-se que as mudanças climáticas atingirão o sistema de produção, sendo destaque a mortalidade das aves por ondas de calor. Diante do contexto apresentado, o objetivo geral dessa pesquisa foi desenvolver um sistema fuzzy para previsão de mortalidade de poedeiras e simular cenários futuros baseados na previsão de mudanças climáticas para a região de Bastos-SP, de acordo com o relatório AR5 do IPCC. O modelo de previsão de mortalidade foi baseado em sistema fuzzy e possui como variáveis de entrada: duração da onda de calor (em dias), a temperatura máxima (ºC) e a idade da ave (em semanas) e como única variável de saída a mortalidade (nível de mortalidade). O sistema fuzzy de previsão de mortalidade foi construído a partir de dados e informações presentes na literatura e apresentou um bom nível de predição em termos de acurácia. O sistema obteve uma média 75,48% de taxa de acurácia entre os 25 aviários de duas granjas analisados durante seu processo de validação. A capacidade de predição do sistema apontou uma taxa de acurácia do sistema que variou entre 50% e 100%. Os resultados da pesquisa para projeções climáticas apontam que mesmo nos cenários otimistas do IPCC, segundo as previsões do sistema fuzzy construído, que haverá aumento preocupante de taxa de mortalidade de poedeiras para a região de Bastos-SP.
The surface temperature of the planet has been increasing over the years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) brings together researchers from different countries and areas of action, with the objective of generating and organizing information by formulating future scenarios of temperature variation and precipitation, so that it is possible to design possible socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Agriculture is one of the sectors most influenced by climatic variations (temperature and precipitation), since the agricultural production and animal production processes, for each species, have ideal ranges of environmental conditions to obtain adequate levels of production. In the production of eggs of laying hens, it is verified that the climatic changes will reach the system of production, being emphasized the mortality of birds by heat waves. In view of the presented context, the general objective of this research was to develop a fuzzy system to predict mortality of laying hens and to simulate future scenarios based on the prediction of climatic changes for the Bastos-SP region, according to the IPCC report AR5. The model of mortality prediction was based on fuzzy system and has as entry variables: heat wave duration (in days), maximum temperature (ºC) and bird age (in weeks) and as the only output variable a mortality (level of mortality). The fuzzy system of mortality prediction was constructed from data and information present in the literature and presented a good level of prediction in terms of accuracy. The system obtained an average 75.48% accuracy rate among the 25 aviaries from two farms analyzed during its validation process. The system prediction capability showed a system accuracy rate ranging from 50% to 100%. The results of the research for climatic projections show that even in the optimistic scenarios of the IPCC, according to the fuzzy system constructed, there will be a worrying increase in the mortality rate of laying hens for the region of Bastos-SP.
The surface temperature of the planet has been increasing over the years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) brings together researchers from different countries and areas of action, with the objective of generating and organizing information by formulating future scenarios of temperature variation and precipitation, so that it is possible to design possible socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Agriculture is one of the sectors most influenced by climatic variations (temperature and precipitation), since the agricultural production and animal production processes, for each species, have ideal ranges of environmental conditions to obtain adequate levels of production. In the production of eggs of laying hens, it is verified that the climatic changes will reach the system of production, being emphasized the mortality of birds by heat waves. In view of the presented context, the general objective of this research was to develop a fuzzy system to predict mortality of laying hens and to simulate future scenarios based on the prediction of climatic changes for the Bastos-SP region, according to the IPCC report AR5. The model of mortality prediction was based on fuzzy system and has as entry variables: heat wave duration (in days), maximum temperature (ºC) and bird age (in weeks) and as the only output variable a mortality (level of mortality). The fuzzy system of mortality prediction was constructed from data and information present in the literature and presented a good level of prediction in terms of accuracy. The system obtained an average 75.48% accuracy rate among the 25 aviaries from two farms analyzed during its validation process. The system prediction capability showed a system accuracy rate ranging from 50% to 100%. The results of the research for climatic projections show that even in the optimistic scenarios of the IPCC, according to the fuzzy system constructed, there will be a worrying increase in the mortality rate of laying hens for the region of Bastos-SP.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Avicultura de Postura, Anomalias climáticas, Avicultura de postura, Lógica Fuzzy, Zootecnia de precisão, Climate changes, Climate anomalies, Poultry farming, Fuzzy logic, Zootecny of precision