Dinâmica climática, excepcionalidades e vulnerabilidade: contribuições para uma classificação geográfica do clima do estado do Rio de Janeiro
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2018-06-22
Autores
Armond, Nubia [UNESP]
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
O estado do Rio de Janeiro possui significativa multiplicidade geográfica, tanto no que se refere a suas feições orográficas e diversidade climática, quanto aos diferentes padrões de produção do espaço existentes em seu interior. Diante dessa complexidade, o conhecimento sobre a variabilidade espaço-temporal dos elementos do clima no Estado é fundamental para fins de planejamento e gestão do território. Esta tese se propõe a realizar uma reflexão sobre as classificações climáticas em Geografia, com vistas a efetuar uma análise geográfica do clima do Estado do Rio de Janeiro a partir da relação entre precipitação pluviométrica e vulnerabilidade. Parte-se da hipótese que, ainda que possa possuir distintas unidades de precipitação pluviométrica, as chuvas podem deflagrar excepcionalidades que são determinadas pelas diferenças nos padrões de vulnerabilidade do Estado. O arcabouço analítico de tese se assentou sobre as perspectivas da climatologia geográfica, do conceito de vulnerabilidade e da Geografia do Clima, ao propor uma investigação baseada na utilização dos conceitos de classificação climática, vulnerabilidade e episódios extremos pautados na categoria de espaço em suas concepções absoluto, relativo e relacional. Para tanto, foram utilizados dados climáticos de estações meteorológicas e postos pluviométricos do INMET e da ANA, com a aplicação de técnicas de estatística descritiva e multivariada desde o processo de preenchimento de falhas até a definição dos anos-padrão para análise. As representações cartográficas foram realizadas com o intuito de demonstrar a complexidade inerente à relação entre os fatores e elementos do clima em diferentes escalas. As médias de precipitação da série histórica analisada (1975-2015) demonstraram padrões similares àqueles exibidos pela Normal Climatológica, com as porções norte e noroeste do estado apresentando padrões de precipitação inferiores em relação às áreas a barlavento da Serra do Mar. No que se refere à gênese, mais de 90% da precipitação pluviométrica do estado do Rio de Janeiro advém da dinâmica de avanço da Frente Polar Atlântica – FPA e/ou sistemas associados (frente oclusa, frente fria, frente reflexa e formação de Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul – ZCAS). Sobre as massas de ar, as áreas próximas ao litoral sul, à Serra do Mar e a porções mais continentais do estado contam com participação significativa dos sistemas polares (massa polar atlântica e massa polar atlântica continentalizada - em média 29%), enquanto as áreas situadas no norte fluminense e setores mais próximos à faixa costeira apresentam, em média, 35% de participação dos sistemas tropicais (massa tropical atlântica, massa tropical atlântica continentalizada e instabilidade tropical), caracterizando o estado como pertencente a grande faixa de transição do sudeste brasileiro. Foram, ainda, empregados dados de ocorrências de inundações (bruscas e graduais) e dados referentes ao Censo de 2010 para aplicar o SoVI – Social Vulnerability Index e relacionar este modelo aos episódios extremos. Verificou-se que, a despeito da maior parte do território do estado do Rio de Janeiro apresentar elevadas condições de vulnerabilidade, a maioria das ocorrências coincidiu com as áreas de alta e muito alta vulnerabilidade. Entretanto, não necessariamente as áreas de maior atuação (em termos percentuais) da FPA e/ou sistemas associados coincidiram com os municípios que apresentaram maior número de ocorrências de inundações, o que denota a relevância de uma análise que considere a dinâmica climática não apenas em consonância, mas em relação com as dinâmicas de produção do espaço geográfico. Em síntese, buscou-se, com este trabalho, indicar reflexões através de argumentação teórica, procedimentos metodológicos, arsenal analítico e de representação, para futuras propostas de análise e classificação do clima considerando-o como um fenômeno eminentemente geográfico, tal como propõe a Geografia do Clima.
Rio de Janeiro state has a significant geographic multiplicity, both in terms of its orographic features and climatic diversity, as well as the different patterns of space production in its interior. Faced with this complexity, knowledge about climate elements spatiotemporal variability is fundamental for planning and territorial management purposes. This thesis proposes to carry out a reflection on the climatic classifications in Geography, in order to carry out a geographic analysis of the climate of the State of Rio de Janeiro from the relation between rainfall and vulnerability. It is hypothesized that, although it may have different units of rainfall, rainfall may trigger exceptionalities that are determined by differences in the state's vulnerability patterns. The analytical framework of thesis was based on the perspectives of the geographical climatology, the concept of vulnerability and the Geography of the Climate, proposing an investigation based on the concepts of climatic classification, vulnerability and extreme episodes based on the category of space in its absolute conceptions , relative and relational. In order to do so, we used the climatic data of meteorological stations and pluviometric stations of INMET and ANA rain gauges, with descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques from the fault-filling process to the definition of the standard years for analysis. The cartographic representations were performed with the purpose of demonstrating the inherent complexity of the relationship between the factors and elements of the climate in different scales. The precipitation averages of the analyzed historical series (1975-2015) showed similar patterns to those exhibited by Normal Climatology, with the north and northwest portions of the state showing lower precipitation patterns in relation to the leeward areas of Serra do Mar. to the genesis, more than 90% of the rainfall of the state of Rio de Janeiro comes from the forward movement dynamics of the Atlantic Polar Front (FPA) and / or associated systems (front occlusal, cold front, reflex front and formation of South Atlantic Convergence Zone - ZCAS). Concerning the air masses, the areas near the southern coast, the Serra do Mar and the more continental portions of the state have significant participation of the polar systems (Atlantic polar mass and continentalized Atlantic polar mass - on average 29%), while the areas located in the north of the state of Rio de Janeiro and sectors closer to the coastline, have an average of 35% participation of tropical systems (Atlantic tropical mass, continental Atlantic tropical mass and tropical instability), characterizing the state as belonging to the great transition zone of the Brazilian southeast . Data were also used for flood occurrences (abrupt and gradual) and data referring to the 2010 Census to apply the SoVI - Social Vulnerability Index and to relate this model to extreme episodes. It was verified that, although most of the territory of the state of Rio de Janeiro presents high vulnerability conditions, most occurrences coincided with areas of high and very high vulnerability. However, not necessarily the areas with the highest FPA performance and / or associated systems coincided with the municipalities with the highest number of flood events, which indicates the relevance of an analysis that considers climate dynamics not only in consonance, but in relation to the production dynamics of the geographical space. In summary, it was sought, with this work, to indicate reflections through theoretical argumentation, methodological procedures, analytical arsenal and representation for future proposals of analysis and classification of the climate considering it as an eminently geographical phenomenon, as proposed by Geography of Climate.
Rio de Janeiro state has a significant geographic multiplicity, both in terms of its orographic features and climatic diversity, as well as the different patterns of space production in its interior. Faced with this complexity, knowledge about climate elements spatiotemporal variability is fundamental for planning and territorial management purposes. This thesis proposes to carry out a reflection on the climatic classifications in Geography, in order to carry out a geographic analysis of the climate of the State of Rio de Janeiro from the relation between rainfall and vulnerability. It is hypothesized that, although it may have different units of rainfall, rainfall may trigger exceptionalities that are determined by differences in the state's vulnerability patterns. The analytical framework of thesis was based on the perspectives of the geographical climatology, the concept of vulnerability and the Geography of the Climate, proposing an investigation based on the concepts of climatic classification, vulnerability and extreme episodes based on the category of space in its absolute conceptions , relative and relational. In order to do so, we used the climatic data of meteorological stations and pluviometric stations of INMET and ANA rain gauges, with descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques from the fault-filling process to the definition of the standard years for analysis. The cartographic representations were performed with the purpose of demonstrating the inherent complexity of the relationship between the factors and elements of the climate in different scales. The precipitation averages of the analyzed historical series (1975-2015) showed similar patterns to those exhibited by Normal Climatology, with the north and northwest portions of the state showing lower precipitation patterns in relation to the leeward areas of Serra do Mar. to the genesis, more than 90% of the rainfall of the state of Rio de Janeiro comes from the forward movement dynamics of the Atlantic Polar Front (FPA) and / or associated systems (front occlusal, cold front, reflex front and formation of South Atlantic Convergence Zone - ZCAS). Concerning the air masses, the areas near the southern coast, the Serra do Mar and the more continental portions of the state have significant participation of the polar systems (Atlantic polar mass and continentalized Atlantic polar mass - on average 29%), while the areas located in the north of the state of Rio de Janeiro and sectors closer to the coastline, have an average of 35% participation of tropical systems (Atlantic tropical mass, continental Atlantic tropical mass and tropical instability), characterizing the state as belonging to the great transition zone of the Brazilian southeast . Data were also used for flood occurrences (abrupt and gradual) and data referring to the 2010 Census to apply the SoVI - Social Vulnerability Index and to relate this model to extreme episodes. It was verified that, although most of the territory of the state of Rio de Janeiro presents high vulnerability conditions, most occurrences coincided with areas of high and very high vulnerability. However, not necessarily the areas with the highest FPA performance and / or associated systems coincided with the municipalities with the highest number of flood events, which indicates the relevance of an analysis that considers climate dynamics not only in consonance, but in relation to the production dynamics of the geographical space. In summary, it was sought, with this work, to indicate reflections through theoretical argumentation, methodological procedures, analytical arsenal and representation for future proposals of analysis and classification of the climate considering it as an eminently geographical phenomenon, as proposed by Geography of Climate.
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Palavras-chave
Classificação climática, Chuva, Vulnerabilidade, Episódios extremos, Rio de Janeiro, Climate classification, Rain, Vulnerability, Extreme episodes