Análise de cointegração dos fatores econômicos determinantes da captação de leite nos principais estados produtores do Brasil entre 1999 e 2016
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Data
2018-08-31
Autores
Silva Filho, Jairo Vieira da
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
Objetivo O objetivo do trabalho é utilizar a técnica de cointegração para mensurar o impacto das elasticidades das variáveis explicativas: produtividade, Produto Interno Bruto, preço do leite pago aos produtores, importação de leite em pó, salários e relações de troca sobre a variável dependente captação formal de leite, no longo e no curto prazo, para seis dos principais estados produtores. Utiliza-se também a técnica de cointegração com painel balanceado para mensurar o impacto das variáveis explicativas na variável dependente, agrupando-se os seguintes estados: Minas Gerais, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Goiás e São Paulo. Metodologia Para as análises dos estados foi utilizado o método de mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO) e, para a análise dos dados em painel, o método de mínimos quadrados com variável dummy (MQVD). Para a análise de cointegração entre os períodos de curto e longo prazo foi utilizado o teste de Engle-Granger. Resultados e Discussões Por meio do estudo foi possível medir a elasticidade dos coeficientes referentes às variáveis estudadas. Produtividade foi a variável mais importante para a análise, ao se considerar os coeficientes, no longo prazo, de 1,327 para Minas Gerais, 0,582 para São Paulo, 1,393 para o Paraná, 1,458 para Santa Catarina e 1,395 para os dados em painel. A produtividade mostrou-se significativa para Santa Catarina também no curto prazo, apresentando coeficiente de 2,793. Já para o curto prazo, apesar de não ser significativa para todos os modelos propostos, a variável com coeficiente mais elástico foi o preço do leite pago aos produtores, sendo 0,337 para Minas Gerais, 0,332 para o Paraná e 0,158 para São Paulo. Implicações Gerenciais Como justificativa em nível empresarial, ressalta-se o fato de tal análise servir de parâmetro para que produtores e a indústria tenham uma base mais assertiva em suas análises de mercado, contribuir para a criação de estratégias de mercado e no norteamento de políticas públicas para o setor. Conclusões Foi possível, por meio do estudo, verificar a condição de cointegração entre os períodos de curto e longo prazo, para as análises estaduais e para os dados em painel, o que contribui para o entendimento das influências das variáveis ao longo do tempo. A produtividade e o PIB foram as variáveis com maior impacto no longo prazo e o preço do leite pago aos produtores foi a variável com maior impacto no curto prazo. Como limitações do estudo, podem-se citar a menor série de dados para preço do leite no estado de Santa Catarina e a utilização do preço da ração com base em São Paulo para as análises de relação de troca, não se conseguindo preços estaduais individualizados. Originalidade A identificação da cointegração entre os modelos de longo e curto prazo confere originalidade ao trabalho, demonstrando coerência do modelo escolhido. Outros trabalhos do setor não realizaram análises quantitativas englobando as variáveis utilizadas neste modelo. Palavras-chave: captação formal de leite, cointegração, dados em painel, produtividade.
Purpose The purpose of this study is to use the cointegration technique to measure the impact of the elasticities of explanatory variables: productivity, Gross Domestic Product, price of milk paid to producers, import of powdered milk, wages and exchange ratios on the dependent variable formal milk collection, in the long-term and short-terms, for six of the major producing states. The cointegration technique with balanced panel is also used to measure the impact of the explanatory variables on the dependent variable by grouping the following states: Minas Gerais, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Goiás and São Paulo. Design/ methodology For the analyzes, the ordinary least squares method (OLS) was used for the states, the least squares dummy variable model (LSDV) for the panel data, and the Engle-Granger test for the cointegration between the short- and long-term periods. Findings and Discussions Through the study it was possible to measure the elasticity of the coefficients referring to the studied variables. Productivity was the most important variable for the analysis, considering the long-term coefficients of 1.327 for Minas Gerais, 0.582 for São Paulo, 1.393 for Paraná, 1.458 for Santa Catarina and 1.395 for the panel data. Productivity was an important variable for Santa Catarina also in the short term, presenting a coefficient of 2.793. For the short term, although not significant for all the models proposed, the variable with the most elastic coefficient was the price of milk paid to the producers, with 0.337 for Minas Gerais, 0.332 for Paraná and 0.158 for São Paulo. Managerial Implications As a justification at the corporate level, there is the fact that such an analysis serves as a parameter for producers and manufacturers and to have a more assertive basis in their market analysis and contributes to the creation of market strategies and the orientation of public policies for the sector. Conclusion and Research limitations The study allowed for evaluating the condition of cointegration between the short- and long-term periods for the state analyzes and for the panel data, which contributes to the understanding of the influences of the variables over time. Productivity and relative GDP were the variables with the greatest impact in the long-term and the price of milk paid to producers was the variable with the greatest impact in the short-term. As limitations of the study, it is possible to mention the smallest data series for milk prices in the state of Santa Catarina and the use of the feed price based on the state of São Paulo to analyze the exchange ratio, thus not obtaining individualized state prices. Originality The identification of the cointegration between the long- and short-term models provides originality to the study, thus showing the coherence of the chosen model. Other studies in the sector have not performed quantitative analyzes encompassing the variables used in this model. Key words: formal capture of milk, cointegration, panel data, productivity.
Purpose The purpose of this study is to use the cointegration technique to measure the impact of the elasticities of explanatory variables: productivity, Gross Domestic Product, price of milk paid to producers, import of powdered milk, wages and exchange ratios on the dependent variable formal milk collection, in the long-term and short-terms, for six of the major producing states. The cointegration technique with balanced panel is also used to measure the impact of the explanatory variables on the dependent variable by grouping the following states: Minas Gerais, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Goiás and São Paulo. Design/ methodology For the analyzes, the ordinary least squares method (OLS) was used for the states, the least squares dummy variable model (LSDV) for the panel data, and the Engle-Granger test for the cointegration between the short- and long-term periods. Findings and Discussions Through the study it was possible to measure the elasticity of the coefficients referring to the studied variables. Productivity was the most important variable for the analysis, considering the long-term coefficients of 1.327 for Minas Gerais, 0.582 for São Paulo, 1.393 for Paraná, 1.458 for Santa Catarina and 1.395 for the panel data. Productivity was an important variable for Santa Catarina also in the short term, presenting a coefficient of 2.793. For the short term, although not significant for all the models proposed, the variable with the most elastic coefficient was the price of milk paid to the producers, with 0.337 for Minas Gerais, 0.332 for Paraná and 0.158 for São Paulo. Managerial Implications As a justification at the corporate level, there is the fact that such an analysis serves as a parameter for producers and manufacturers and to have a more assertive basis in their market analysis and contributes to the creation of market strategies and the orientation of public policies for the sector. Conclusion and Research limitations The study allowed for evaluating the condition of cointegration between the short- and long-term periods for the state analyzes and for the panel data, which contributes to the understanding of the influences of the variables over time. Productivity and relative GDP were the variables with the greatest impact in the long-term and the price of milk paid to producers was the variable with the greatest impact in the short-term. As limitations of the study, it is possible to mention the smallest data series for milk prices in the state of Santa Catarina and the use of the feed price based on the state of São Paulo to analyze the exchange ratio, thus not obtaining individualized state prices. Originality The identification of the cointegration between the long- and short-term models provides originality to the study, thus showing the coherence of the chosen model. Other studies in the sector have not performed quantitative analyzes encompassing the variables used in this model. Key words: formal capture of milk, cointegration, panel data, productivity.
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Palavras-chave
Captação formal de leite, Cointegração, dados em painel, Dados em painel, Produtividade, Formal capture of milk, Cointegration, Productivity, Panel Data