Spatial analysis of counting data with excess zeros applied to the study of dengue incidence in Campinas, Sao Paulo State, Brazil
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Data
2016-08-01
Autores
Costa, Jose Vilton
Arruda Silveira, Liciana Vaz de [UNESP]
Donalisio, Maria Rita
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Editor
Cadernos Saude Publica
Resumo
Dengue incidence occurs predominantly within city limits. Identifying spatial distribution of the disease at the local level helps formulate strategies to control and prevent the disease. Spatial analysis of counting data for small areas commonly violates the assumptions of traditional Poisson models due to the excessive amount of zeros. This study compared the performance of four counting models used in mapping diseases: Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial. The methods were compared in a simulation study. The models analyzed in the simulation were applied to a spatial ecological study of dengue data aggregated by census tracts in the city of Campinas, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, 2007. Spatial analysis was conducted with Bayesian hierarchical models. The zero-inflated Poisson model showed the best performance for estimating relative risk of dengue incidence in the census tracts.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Spatial Analysis, Dengue, Communicable Disease Control
Como citar
Cadernos De Saude Publica. Rio De Janiero: Cadernos Saude Publica, v. 32, n. 8, 14 p., 2016.