Regime de metas no Brasil: uma análise do trade-off entre inflação e crescimento
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Data
2018-10-31
Autores
Hartmann, Darlan Siegle [UNESP]
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
O regime de metas de inflação foi implementado no Brasil em junho de 1999 e desde então se tornou o principal foco da política monetária do país comandada pelo Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom). A rigidez desse regime pode comprometer a estabilidade da produção e do crescimento do país, pois a política monetária se torna submissa ao objetivo de alcançar a meta, regulando apenas variáveis nominais da economia. Através de um modelo VAR, foi analisada a relação entre taxa Selic, inflação e hiato do produto para o período de 1999-2015, aonde se concluiu que a manutenção da taxa Selic em altos patamares tem sido favorável ao produto do país no longo prazo e ineficiente no controle inflacionário. Além disso, o trade-off entre inflação e crescimento só não ocorre no curto prazo no sentido crescimento para a inflação.
The inflation targeting regime was implemented in Brazil in June 1999 and has since become the main focus of the country's Monetary Policy Committe (Copom). The rigidity of the regime can compromise the stability and growth of the country, because monetary policy becomes more demanding when executing a target, regulating only nominal variables of the economy. Using a VAR model, it was analyzed the relationship between the Selic rate, inflation and output gap for the period 1999-2015 was analyzed, where it was concluded that the maintenance of the Selic rate at high levels has been favorable to the country's product in the long term and inefficient in the inflation control. Moreover, the trade-off between inflation and growth does not occur only in the short run in the direction of growth for inflation.
The inflation targeting regime was implemented in Brazil in June 1999 and has since become the main focus of the country's Monetary Policy Committe (Copom). The rigidity of the regime can compromise the stability and growth of the country, because monetary policy becomes more demanding when executing a target, regulating only nominal variables of the economy. Using a VAR model, it was analyzed the relationship between the Selic rate, inflation and output gap for the period 1999-2015 was analyzed, where it was concluded that the maintenance of the Selic rate at high levels has been favorable to the country's product in the long term and inefficient in the inflation control. Moreover, the trade-off between inflation and growth does not occur only in the short run in the direction of growth for inflation.
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Palavras-chave
Política monetária, Regime de metas de inflação, Hiato do produto