Metodologia de avaliação econômica para a decisão entre renovação ou reforma de tratores agrícolas
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Data
2018-11-30
Autores
Vidal, Diego Onofre [UNESP]
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
Decidir entre comprar ou reformar tratores agrícolas e quando fazê-lo é um problema rotineiro para produtores rurais e uma questão ainda não explorada na bibliografia, em que pese, sua importância à competitividade da atividade, especialmente, quando esta decisão volta-se para tratores de pneus, principal ativo para atividade mecanizadas. Objetivou-se neste trabalho construir e validar uma metodologia de avaliação econômica para apoiar o processo decisório entre comprar ou reformar tratores de pneus utilizados na pulverização de pomares de citros. Construiu-se um banco de dados com informações operacionais e financeiras trimestrais de 47 tratores, entre os anos de 2009 e 2017. A metodologia combinou a utilização de um modelo empírico de Regressão com Dados em Painel e o Fluxo de Caixa Descontado, em que as incertezas foram controladas por meio de simulação de Monte Carlo. A renovação da frota para os modelos utilizados deve ocorrer no quarto ano, em decorrência do crescimento dos custos, associado ao benefício fiscal e ao impacto econômico dos investimentos e à revenda dos tratores no fluxo de caixa.
The decision between to buy or renovate agricultural tractors and when to do so is a routine problem for rural producers is an issue not yet explored in the bibliography, despite its importance to the competitiveness of the activity, especially when this decision is about agricultural tires tractors, main active for mechanized activities. The objective of this work was to construct and evaluate an economic evaluation methodology to support the decision-making process between buying and renovating tire tractors used in the spraying of citrus orchards. A database with quarterly operational and financial information of 47 equipment’s was constructed between 2009 and 2017. The methodology combined the use of an empirical model of Panel Data Regression with Discounted Cash Flow, in which the uncertainties were controlled by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The renewal of the fleet for the models used should occur in the fourth year, due to the increase in costs, associated with the tax benefit and the economic impact of the investments and the resale of the tractors in the cash flow.
The decision between to buy or renovate agricultural tractors and when to do so is a routine problem for rural producers is an issue not yet explored in the bibliography, despite its importance to the competitiveness of the activity, especially when this decision is about agricultural tires tractors, main active for mechanized activities. The objective of this work was to construct and evaluate an economic evaluation methodology to support the decision-making process between buying and renovating tire tractors used in the spraying of citrus orchards. A database with quarterly operational and financial information of 47 equipment’s was constructed between 2009 and 2017. The methodology combined the use of an empirical model of Panel Data Regression with Discounted Cash Flow, in which the uncertainties were controlled by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The renewal of the fleet for the models used should occur in the fourth year, due to the increase in costs, associated with the tax benefit and the economic impact of the investments and the resale of the tractors in the cash flow.
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Palavras-chave
Análise de investimento, Citricultura, Mecanização, Pulverização, Simulação de Monte Carlo, Fluxo de caixa descontado