Cenários da conjuntura e perspectivas das coautorias em artigos científicos no grupo geopolítico dos países BRICS
Carregando...
Arquivos
Data
2019-03-08
Autores
Prado, Marcos Aparecido Rodrigues do [UNESP]
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
Analisa o contexto geopolítico dos países BRICS com foco na produtividade de artigos científicos publicados em coautoria internacional com indexações na base Scopus durante o período de 1996 a 2015. Utilizou-se metodologicamente da Análise de Conjuntura para descrever as condições de realidades compatíveis às perspectivas históricas, econômicas, geográficas, políticas, sociais e científicas correspondentes às cinco nações BRICS. Explorar tais características objetiva à intenção de apresentar o contexto conjuntural dos BRICS para se compreender o processo de integração geopolítica dos seus componentes no grupo e proporcionar cenários que demonstrem perspectivas do futuro das coautorias internacionais intra-BRICS. A escolha do grupo de países como elementos do objeto de pesquisa justifica-se pela notoriedade global que essa entidade geopolítica tem repercutido em múltiplos domínios científicos e frequentes coberturas jornalísticas em todo o mundo. Método: a Análise de Conjuntura foi delineada como o cerne dos procedimentos metodológicos. Porém, foi necessário o emprego de outras técnicas auxiliares para contribuir ao processo de levantamento dos dados e suas respectivas organizações e análises. Desse modo, serviram de base as seguintes atividades procedimentais: Análise de Categoria, Análise de Redes Sociais, Estudos Prospectivos com o desenvolvimento de cenários normativos, Estudos Métricos da Informação com indicadores bibliométricos e cientométricos, além de ampla Pesquisa Bibliográfica que fundamentou o referencial teórico. Resultados: esta pesquisa identificou nos levantamentos que os países BRICS coletivamente somaram 5.253.290 publicações de artigos científicos indexados na base Scopus durante o período estabelecido como horizonte temporal. As coautorias internacionais intra-BRICS corresponderam a 89.427 incidências de artigos científicos com publicações compartilhadas por afiliações desse grupo geopolítico. Tal quantia representou 1,70% dos artigos científicos BRICS indexados na Scopus durante as duas décadas do período investigado e 5,08% das coautorias internacionais registradas pela referida base aos pesquisadores de afiliações dos cinco países. A presente pesquisa identificou que as coautorias internacionais intra-BRICS aumentaram de forma consecutiva nos ciclos quinquenais analisados. As progressões observadas demonstraram as seguintes taxas de crescimento por quinquênio: 1996-2000 com 318,22%; 2001-2005 com 171,89%; 2006-2010 com 172,79%; e 2011-2015 com 268,21%. Notou-se que a variação crescente foi ampliando conforme intensificaram os processos de aproximação geopolítica dos cinco países e o último quinquênio registrou um salto significativo. Apesar dos levantamentos apontarem para uma tendência de expansão nas coautorias internacionais intra-BRICS a análise desta pesquisa identificou que a situação ainda é de pouca representatividade. Buscando contribuir com o processo de monitoramento futuro das coautorias internacionais intra-BRICS, em que tomou-se como foco a efetividade da integração geopolítica no grupo, foi desenvolvido três cenários prospectivos. Assim, os registros de incidência das coautorias internacionais intra-BRICS servem de base à predição elaborada para projetar a ocorrência futura na interação científica do grupo. Nesse sentido, três configurações foram produzidas pela tipologia normativa com panoramas estimados em situações pessimistas, realistas e otimistas. Tais prognósticos se desdobram pela extensão de curto, médio e longo prazo para o período de 2021 a 2050. Logo, os três cenários estabelecem metas para o acompanhamento estratégico da situação de tendências e perspectivas ao desenvolvimento das relações intra-BRICS pelas parcerias geopolíticas em coautorias internacionais. Conclusão: a importância econômica da China combinada com a ascensão progressiva da Índia evidenciam vantagens que favorecem o grupo e ampliam o ambiente potencial de parcerias em cooperações de maior integração geopolítica no grupo BRICS. Assim, entende-se que o futuro das publicações compartilhadas intra-BRICS está diretamente relacionado ao nível de interesses estratégicos mantidos pelas relações geopolíticas com parcerias bilaterais e multilaterais entre os países BRICS. Mas, a integração efetiva do grupo deve ser estimulada como política supranacional priorizando o fortalecimento da entidade corporativa que representa institucionalmente a geopolítica dos países emergentes. Para tanto, a presente pesquisa levantou na literatura um conjunto de pressupostos considerados como recomendações exequíveis. Desse modo, a presente pesquisa busca aproximar a Ciência da Informação às discussões de relações internacionais que objetivam ampliar a integração geopolítica pelas publicações conjuntas de artigos científicos entre afiliações de distintos países.
This study analyzes the geopolitical context of the BRICS countries with a focus on the productivity of scientific articles published in international co-authorship indexed in the Scopus database during the period from 1996 to 2015. Conjunctural Analysis was methodologically used to describe the conditions of realities compatible with historical, economic, geographic, political, social and scientific perspectives corresponding to the five BRICS nations. By exploring these characteristics, the study aims at presenting the conjectural context of the BRICS to understand the process of geopolitical integration of its components in the group and provide scenarios that demonstrate future perspectives of intra-BRICS international co-authorship. The choice for this group of countries as research object is justified by the global notoriety this geopolitical entity has shown in multiple scientific domains and frequent journalistic coverage worldwide. Method: Conjunctural Analysis was outlined as the core methodological procedure. However, the use of other auxiliary techniques was necessary to contribute to the data collection process and their organizations and analyzes. In this way, the following procedural activities were employed: Category Analysis, Social Networking Analysis, Prospective Studies with the development of normative scenarios, Metric Studies of information with bibliometric and cientometric indicators, in addition to extensive Bibliographic Research to underpin the theoretical reference. Results: this research identified that the BRICS countries collectively added 5,253,290 publications of scientific articles indexed in the Scopus database during the established period. International intra-BRICS co-authorships corresponded to 89,427 incidents of scientific articles with publications shared by affiliations of this geopolitical group. This number represented 1.70% of the BRICS scientific articles indexed in the Scopus in the two decades of the investigated period and 5.08% of the international co-authorships recorded by the database to the researchers from affiliations of the five countries. The present study identified that intra-BRICS international co-authorships increased consecutively over the five-year cycles. The observed progressions showed the following growth rates per quinquennium: 1996-2000 with 318.22%; 2001-2005 with 171.89%; 2006-2010 with 172.79%; and 2011-2015 with 268.21%. The increasing variation was growing as the processes of geopolitical approximation of the five countries intensified and the last five years registered a significant leap. Although the surveys point to a trend of expansion in international intra-BRICS co-authorships, the analysis of this research identified that the situation is still of little representativeness. In order to contribute to the future monitoring process of intra-BRICS international co-authorships, in which the effectiveness of geopolitical integration in the group was taken as a focus, three prospective scenarios were developed. Thus, the incidence of intra-BRICS international co-authorships serve as the basis for the elaborated prediction to project the future occurrence in the group's scientific interaction. In this sense, three configurations were produced by the normative typology with estimated scenarios in pessimistic, realistic and optimistic situations. These prognoses are unfolded by short-, medium- and long-term extension for the period from 2021 to 2050. Thus, the three scenarios establish goals for the strategic follow-up of the situation of trends and prospects for the development of intra-BRICS relations by the geopolitical partnerships in international co-authorships. Conclusion: The economic importance of China combined with the progressive rise of India shows advantages that favor the group and broaden the potential environment of partnerships in cooperation of greater geopolitical integration in the BRICS group. Thus, it is understood that the future of intra-BRICS shared publications is directly related to the level of strategic interests maintained by geopolitical relations with bilateral and multilateral partnerships among the BRICS countries. However, the effective integration of the group should be encouraged as a supranational policy, prioritizing the strengthening of the corporate entity that represents the geopolitics of emerging countries institutionally. Therefore, the present research searched in the literature a set of assumptions considered as feasible recommendations. Thus, the present research seeks to bring Information Science closer to the discussions of international relations that aim to broaden geopolitical integration by the joint publications of scientific articles among affiliations of different countries.
This study analyzes the geopolitical context of the BRICS countries with a focus on the productivity of scientific articles published in international co-authorship indexed in the Scopus database during the period from 1996 to 2015. Conjunctural Analysis was methodologically used to describe the conditions of realities compatible with historical, economic, geographic, political, social and scientific perspectives corresponding to the five BRICS nations. By exploring these characteristics, the study aims at presenting the conjectural context of the BRICS to understand the process of geopolitical integration of its components in the group and provide scenarios that demonstrate future perspectives of intra-BRICS international co-authorship. The choice for this group of countries as research object is justified by the global notoriety this geopolitical entity has shown in multiple scientific domains and frequent journalistic coverage worldwide. Method: Conjunctural Analysis was outlined as the core methodological procedure. However, the use of other auxiliary techniques was necessary to contribute to the data collection process and their organizations and analyzes. In this way, the following procedural activities were employed: Category Analysis, Social Networking Analysis, Prospective Studies with the development of normative scenarios, Metric Studies of information with bibliometric and cientometric indicators, in addition to extensive Bibliographic Research to underpin the theoretical reference. Results: this research identified that the BRICS countries collectively added 5,253,290 publications of scientific articles indexed in the Scopus database during the established period. International intra-BRICS co-authorships corresponded to 89,427 incidents of scientific articles with publications shared by affiliations of this geopolitical group. This number represented 1.70% of the BRICS scientific articles indexed in the Scopus in the two decades of the investigated period and 5.08% of the international co-authorships recorded by the database to the researchers from affiliations of the five countries. The present study identified that intra-BRICS international co-authorships increased consecutively over the five-year cycles. The observed progressions showed the following growth rates per quinquennium: 1996-2000 with 318.22%; 2001-2005 with 171.89%; 2006-2010 with 172.79%; and 2011-2015 with 268.21%. The increasing variation was growing as the processes of geopolitical approximation of the five countries intensified and the last five years registered a significant leap. Although the surveys point to a trend of expansion in international intra-BRICS co-authorships, the analysis of this research identified that the situation is still of little representativeness. In order to contribute to the future monitoring process of intra-BRICS international co-authorships, in which the effectiveness of geopolitical integration in the group was taken as a focus, three prospective scenarios were developed. Thus, the incidence of intra-BRICS international co-authorships serve as the basis for the elaborated prediction to project the future occurrence in the group's scientific interaction. In this sense, three configurations were produced by the normative typology with estimated scenarios in pessimistic, realistic and optimistic situations. These prognoses are unfolded by short-, medium- and long-term extension for the period from 2021 to 2050. Thus, the three scenarios establish goals for the strategic follow-up of the situation of trends and prospects for the development of intra-BRICS relations by the geopolitical partnerships in international co-authorships. Conclusion: The economic importance of China combined with the progressive rise of India shows advantages that favor the group and broaden the potential environment of partnerships in cooperation of greater geopolitical integration in the BRICS group. Thus, it is understood that the future of intra-BRICS shared publications is directly related to the level of strategic interests maintained by geopolitical relations with bilateral and multilateral partnerships among the BRICS countries. However, the effective integration of the group should be encouraged as a supranational policy, prioritizing the strengthening of the corporate entity that represents the geopolitics of emerging countries institutionally. Therefore, the present research searched in the literature a set of assumptions considered as feasible recommendations. Thus, the present research seeks to bring Information Science closer to the discussions of international relations that aim to broaden geopolitical integration by the joint publications of scientific articles among affiliations of different countries.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Países emergentes (BRICS) – coautorias internacionais, Relações internacionais – publicação compartilha intra-BRICS, Produção científica – coautorias internacionais intra-BRICS, Emerging countries (BRICS) - international co-authorships, International relations - intra-BRICS shared publications, Scientific production - international intra-BRICS co-authorships