Comércio intraindustrial: um exame da indústria automobilística brasileira (2000-2016)
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Data
2019-03-25
Autores
Duregger, Rafael
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
O presente trabalho analisa os padrões de comércio internacional do setor automobilístico brasileiro entre 2000-2016, através dos indicadores de comércio intraindustrial (CII) com as variáveis determinantes do CII para um produto complexo, como é o caso do automóvel. De acordo com as Novas Teorias do Comércio Internacional (NTCI), são: economias de escala, distância geográfica ponderada (hipótese gravitacional), semelhanças na renda e investimento direto estrangeiro (IDE). Essas variáveis são analisadas, assim como, a trajetória seguida pelos indicadores de CII em suas características verticais (grande diferença entre os valores comercializados de um produto semelhante entre dois países) e horizontais (quando a diferença é pequena). O rumo dessa trajetória auxilia também na avaliação do sobre o processo de fragmentação da produção e convergência setorial, ou seja, sobre a evolução das cadeias globais de valor do setor. Considerando que o setor automobilístico e seus padrões de comércio não podem ser compreendidos sem a devida observação dos elementos históricos-institucionais, este estudo deu ênfase, principalmente, à relação com o MERCOSUL, os regimes automotivos e o Programa INOVAR-AUTO. Para os testes empíricos utilizamos uma amostra de 14 países e 84 indústrias, desagregadas a 6 dígitos do Sistema Harmonizado (SH), compreendendo além de veículos finais, carroceria, peças de veículos, transmissões, partes metálicas, outras peças. Como principais resultados temos a confirmação da relação entre CII e as variáveis da NTCI, exceto pela variável similaridade de renda. Também foi verificado que o CII tende a ser horizontal com os grandes parceiros latinos, Argentina e México e tende a ser vertical com os países desenvolvidos.
The present paper analyzes the international trade patterns of the Brazilian auto industry between 2000 and 2016, through the indicators of intraindustrial trade (CII) with the determining variables of the IIC for a complex product, as is the case of the automobile. According to the New Trade Theories (NTT), are: economies of scale, geographic distance weighted (gravitational hypothesis), similarities in income and foreign direct investment (FDI). These variables are analyzed as well as the trajectory followed by the CII indicators in their vertical characteristics (large difference between the values marketed of a similar product between two countries) and horizontal (when the difference is small). The course of this trajectory also helps in the evaluation of the process of production fragmentation and sectoral convergence, that is, the evolution of global value chains in the sector. Considering that the automobile sector and its trade patterns can not be understood without due consideration of the historicalinstitutional elements, this study mainly emphasized the relationship with MERCOSUR, the automotive regimes and the INOVAR-AUTO Program. For the empirical tests we used a sample of 14 countries and 84 industries, disaggregated to 6 digits of the Harmonized System (HS), comprising in addition to final vehicles, bodywork, vehicle parts, transmissions, metal parts, other parts. As main results we have the confirmation of the relationship between IIC and NTCI variables, except for the income similarity variable. It has also been verified that the IIC tends to be horizontal with the great Latin partners, Argentina and Mexico and tends to be vertical with the developed countries.
The present paper analyzes the international trade patterns of the Brazilian auto industry between 2000 and 2016, through the indicators of intraindustrial trade (CII) with the determining variables of the IIC for a complex product, as is the case of the automobile. According to the New Trade Theories (NTT), are: economies of scale, geographic distance weighted (gravitational hypothesis), similarities in income and foreign direct investment (FDI). These variables are analyzed as well as the trajectory followed by the CII indicators in their vertical characteristics (large difference between the values marketed of a similar product between two countries) and horizontal (when the difference is small). The course of this trajectory also helps in the evaluation of the process of production fragmentation and sectoral convergence, that is, the evolution of global value chains in the sector. Considering that the automobile sector and its trade patterns can not be understood without due consideration of the historicalinstitutional elements, this study mainly emphasized the relationship with MERCOSUR, the automotive regimes and the INOVAR-AUTO Program. For the empirical tests we used a sample of 14 countries and 84 industries, disaggregated to 6 digits of the Harmonized System (HS), comprising in addition to final vehicles, bodywork, vehicle parts, transmissions, metal parts, other parts. As main results we have the confirmation of the relationship between IIC and NTCI variables, except for the income similarity variable. It has also been verified that the IIC tends to be horizontal with the great Latin partners, Argentina and Mexico and tends to be vertical with the developed countries.
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Comércio intraindústria, setor automobilístico, cadeias globais de valor, investimento direto estrangeiro, Intra industry trade, automotive industry, global value chains, foreign direct investment