Prospecção e modelagem dos indicadores de produção de energia primária no Brasil suportada pela teoria dos grafos
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Data
2020-02-18
Autores
Casa Grande, Lucélia Maria
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Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
Essa pesquisa apresenta um estudo sobre o cenário da produção de energia primária no Brasil ao longo do período de 1970 a 2018, bem como as principais fontes que colaboraram para a matriz energética nacional. Para mapear as tendências da produção de energia primária foi aplicada a Teoria dos Grafos e Análise de Redes Sociais por meio do Software UCINET, no qual foram produzidos grafos demonstrando as redes sociais de produção de energia que contribuíram para o Brasil. Também são apresentados nesse trabalho os modelos matemáticos que representam a variação da centralidade e densidade da produção de energia primária brasileira. Os resultados da pesquisa demonstram a evolução da produção de energia primária e a forte base de energia fóssil (petróleo) e mais recentemente o aumento significativo, da contribuição de energia da fonte gás natural. Com base nos resultados obtidos e a prospecção da literatura sobre economia do Brasil no período compreendido entre os anos de 1970 a 2018 discutiu-se os movimentos realizados por formuladores de políticas públicas do cenário nacional que culminaram numa redução dos investimentos no setor, mesmo que a demanda sempre se encontrasse em crescimento, mas que seguiu atrelada aos resultados de pequenos incrementos no PIB e no IDH. Outro importante resultado foi observado com a evolução e do petróleo como oferta de fonte primária não renovável por todo o período da pesquisa (48 anos) e a alternância das ofertas das fontes não renováveis que, iniciando com a predominância da lenha, passando para a geração de energia hidráulica que foi a mais importante por duas décadas e a substituição pelos produtos derivados da cana, o que se estende até o ano de 2018. Observou-se também que no período de 2010 a 2018, a participação de oferta das fontes primárias renováveis, em termos percentuais, já não está tão distante das participações das ofertas das fontes primárias não renováveis, quase chegando a dividir igualmente disponibilidade para a composição da matriz brasileira.
This research presents a study on the scenario of primary energy production in Brazil over the period from 1970 to 2018, as well as the main sources that contributed to the national energy matrix. To map trends in primary energy production, Graph Theory and Social Network Analysis was applied using the UCINET Software, in which graphs were produced showing the social energy production networks that contributed to Brazil. Also presented in this work are mathematical models that represent the variation in the centrality and density of Brazilian primary energy production. The research results demonstrate the evolution of primary energy production, and the strong fossil energy base (oil) and more recently the significant increase in the contribution of energy from the natural gas source. Based on the results obtained and the prospecting of literature on the economy of Brazil in the period between the years 1970 to 2018, it became possible to discuss the movements carried out by public policy makers on the national scene that culminated in a reduction of investments in the sector, even that demand would always be growing, but that it would continue to be linked to the results of small increases in GDP and HDI. Another important result was observed with the evolution of oil as a non-renewable primary source offer for the entire period of the research (48 years) and the alternation of offers from non-renewable sources that, starting with the predominance of firewood, passing on to generation of hydraulic energy that was the most important for two decades and the substitution by products derived from sugarcane, which extends until the year 2018. It was also observed that in the period from 2010 to 2018, the share of supply from renewable primary sources, in percentage terms, it is no longer so distant from the share of offers from non-renewable primary sources, almost even dividing availability for the composition of the Brazilian matrix.
This research presents a study on the scenario of primary energy production in Brazil over the period from 1970 to 2018, as well as the main sources that contributed to the national energy matrix. To map trends in primary energy production, Graph Theory and Social Network Analysis was applied using the UCINET Software, in which graphs were produced showing the social energy production networks that contributed to Brazil. Also presented in this work are mathematical models that represent the variation in the centrality and density of Brazilian primary energy production. The research results demonstrate the evolution of primary energy production, and the strong fossil energy base (oil) and more recently the significant increase in the contribution of energy from the natural gas source. Based on the results obtained and the prospecting of literature on the economy of Brazil in the period between the years 1970 to 2018, it became possible to discuss the movements carried out by public policy makers on the national scene that culminated in a reduction of investments in the sector, even that demand would always be growing, but that it would continue to be linked to the results of small increases in GDP and HDI. Another important result was observed with the evolution of oil as a non-renewable primary source offer for the entire period of the research (48 years) and the alternation of offers from non-renewable sources that, starting with the predominance of firewood, passing on to generation of hydraulic energy that was the most important for two decades and the substitution by products derived from sugarcane, which extends until the year 2018. It was also observed that in the period from 2010 to 2018, the share of supply from renewable primary sources, in percentage terms, it is no longer so distant from the share of offers from non-renewable primary sources, almost even dividing availability for the composition of the Brazilian matrix.
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Palavras-chave
Energia primária, Teoria dos grafos, Software Ucinet, Primary energy