Inovação tecnológica, acumulação material e os ciclos hegemônicos: a ascensão chinesa no sistema internacional e a geopolítica da Eurásia
Data
2021-02-18
Autores
Nascimento, Lucas Gualberto do [UNESP]
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Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
O presente estudo objetiva analisar a ascensão chinesa no sistema internacional e suas origens e causas a partir da perspectiva dos fenômenos históricos da longa duração e dos ciclos de hegemonia. A partir dos Ciclos Sistêmicos de Acumulação de Giovanni Arrighi, do paradigma da Era Asiática de Gunder Frank e os ciclos longos de Kondratiev, será exposto como o processo capitalista de acumulação chinês, em uma visão histórica de longa duração, o impulsiona em termos de projeção de poder em um quinto ciclo de acumulação, com bases tecnológicas em um quinto ciclo Kondratiev, o da Quarta Revolução Industrial – também conhecida como Indústria 4.0. Não obstante, a ascensão chinesa será analisada em conjunto com o papel do Estado na inovação tecnológica, conforme proposto por Mazzucato, e a trajetória do desenvolvimento histórico de Chang. Ademais, defende-se que tal estratégia de acumulação chinesa é estabelecida a partir de um paradigma de Estado-civilização; e portanto, de estabelecimento de novos padrões na ordem internacional, baseados no surgimento do ciclo hegemônico chinês e em seu domínio dos novos padrões tecnológicos de acumulação material. Finalmente, em aliança multilateral com potências emergentes regionais, com parcerias moldadas no âmbito do projeto Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), sustenta-se que o processo chinês de acumulação busca reunir e projetar capacidades suficientes para moldar o sistema de acordo com os seus interesses, como o estabelecimento de uma configuração multipolar da ordem internacional e melhores condições político-econômicas para o seu desenvolvimento sustentado e de seus parceiros na Eurásia. Em tais alianças multilaterais, se dará ênfase às relações sino-russas contemporâneas, sobretudo a partir de acordos de cooperação com a União Econômica Eurasiática (EAEU) e a crescente disputa deste eixo com os Estados Unidos no supercontinente, assim como as suas motivações e desdobramentos.
This study aims analyzing the Chinese rise in the international system and its origins and causes from the perspective of the historical phenomena of long duration and cycles of hegemony. From Giovanni Arrighi's Systemic Accumulation Cycles, Gunder Frank's Asian Era paradigm and Kondratiev's long cycles, it will be exposed how the Chinese capitalist accumulation process, in a long-term historical perspective, is propelled in terms of power projection in a fifth accumulation cycle, with technological bases in a fifth Kondratiev cycle, that of the Fourth Industrial Revolution - also known as Industry 4.0. Nevertheless, the Chinese rise will be analyzed together with the role of the State in technological innovation, proposed by Mazzucato, and the trajectory of Chang's historical development. Furthermore, it is argued that such a strategy of Chinese accumulation is based on a paradigm of State-civilization; and therefore, the establishment of new standards in the international order, based on the emergence of a Chinese hegemonic cycle and its dominance of new technological standards of material accumulation. Finally, in a multilateral alliance with emerging regional powers, with partnerships shaped under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project, it is argued that the Chinese accumulation process seeks to gather and design sufficient resources to shape the system according to its needs and interests, such as the establishment of a multipolar configuration of the international order and better political-benefit conditions for its sustained development and its partners in Eurasia. In such multilateral alliances, emphasis will be placed on contemporary Sino-Russian relations, based on cooperation agreements with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the growing dispute of this grouping with the United States in the supercontinent, as well as their motivations and developments.
This study aims analyzing the Chinese rise in the international system and its origins and causes from the perspective of the historical phenomena of long duration and cycles of hegemony. From Giovanni Arrighi's Systemic Accumulation Cycles, Gunder Frank's Asian Era paradigm and Kondratiev's long cycles, it will be exposed how the Chinese capitalist accumulation process, in a long-term historical perspective, is propelled in terms of power projection in a fifth accumulation cycle, with technological bases in a fifth Kondratiev cycle, that of the Fourth Industrial Revolution - also known as Industry 4.0. Nevertheless, the Chinese rise will be analyzed together with the role of the State in technological innovation, proposed by Mazzucato, and the trajectory of Chang's historical development. Furthermore, it is argued that such a strategy of Chinese accumulation is based on a paradigm of State-civilization; and therefore, the establishment of new standards in the international order, based on the emergence of a Chinese hegemonic cycle and its dominance of new technological standards of material accumulation. Finally, in a multilateral alliance with emerging regional powers, with partnerships shaped under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project, it is argued that the Chinese accumulation process seeks to gather and design sufficient resources to shape the system according to its needs and interests, such as the establishment of a multipolar configuration of the international order and better political-benefit conditions for its sustained development and its partners in Eurasia. In such multilateral alliances, emphasis will be placed on contemporary Sino-Russian relations, based on cooperation agreements with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the growing dispute of this grouping with the United States in the supercontinent, as well as their motivations and developments.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
China, Hegemonia, Longa duração, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Eurásia, Hegemony, Long duration