Gestão econômica para recuperação de uma mata ciliar: uma abordagem estocástica
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Data
2021-03-19
Autores
Gil, Jean Fernando Silva
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Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
A aplicação de capital demandado para a restauração florestal pode limitar a execução destes projetos de investimento, sobretudo, devido a probabilidade de ocorrência de valores da produtividade efetiva das operações e custo final dos projetos. À vista disso, o objetivo foi analisar se as incertezas associadas a projetos de investimento em restauração florestal ativa interferem na produtividade efetiva das operações silviculturais e custos de implantações e manutenções pós-plantio. Deste modo, foram ponderados três projetos de investimentos em restauração florestal ativa que diferiram em função dos recipientes utilizados para a produção das mudas florestais nativas, logo, foi realizado o plantio de mudas produzidas em sacos de polietileno, tubetes de polietileno e Ellepot®. Sob condições de incertezas, foram ponderados os tempos dos elementos de trabalho, as produtividades efetivas das operações silviculturais, os componentes de custos, os custos totais, custos de produção e custos anuais uniformes equivalentes dos projetos de investimento, aos quais foram ajustadas distribuições de probabilidades. Posteriormente, executou-se a simulação pelo método de Monte Carlo para a geração de números pseudoaleatórios. Os resultados evidenciaram que o projeto de investimento que pondera a aquisição de mudas produzidas em Ellepot® apresentou maior produtividade efetiva da implantação, menor produtividade efetiva da manutenção pós-plantio, entretanto, o menor custo anual uniforme equivalente quando comparado aos projetos de investimento que empregaram mudas produzidas em sacos de polietileno e tubetes de polietileno.
The application of capital demanded for forest restoration can limit the execution of these investment projects, mainly due to the probability of occurrence of values of the effective productivity of the operations and the final cost of the projects. In view of this, the objective was to analyze whether the uncertainties associated with investment projects in active forest restoration interfere with the effective productivity of silvicultural operations and the costs of post-planting implantations and maintenance. In this way, three investment projects in active forest restoration were considered, which differed according to the containers used for the production of native forest seedlings, therefore, the planting of seedlings produced in polyethylene bags, polyethylene tubes and Ellepot® was carried out. Under conditions of uncertainty, the times of the work elements, the effective productivity of silvicultural operations, the cost components, total costs, production costs and equivalent uniform annual costs of investment projects were weighted, to which probability distributions were adjusted. Subsequently, the Monte Carlo method simulation was performed to generate pseudo-random numbers. The results showed that the investment project that considers the acquisition of seedlings produced in Ellepot® showed greater effective productivity of the implantation, less effective productivity of the post-planting maintenance, however, the lowest uniform annual cost equivalent when compared to the investment projects that employed seedlings produced in polyethylene bags and polyethylene tubes.
The application of capital demanded for forest restoration can limit the execution of these investment projects, mainly due to the probability of occurrence of values of the effective productivity of the operations and the final cost of the projects. In view of this, the objective was to analyze whether the uncertainties associated with investment projects in active forest restoration interfere with the effective productivity of silvicultural operations and the costs of post-planting implantations and maintenance. In this way, three investment projects in active forest restoration were considered, which differed according to the containers used for the production of native forest seedlings, therefore, the planting of seedlings produced in polyethylene bags, polyethylene tubes and Ellepot® was carried out. Under conditions of uncertainty, the times of the work elements, the effective productivity of silvicultural operations, the cost components, total costs, production costs and equivalent uniform annual costs of investment projects were weighted, to which probability distributions were adjusted. Subsequently, the Monte Carlo method simulation was performed to generate pseudo-random numbers. The results showed that the investment project that considers the acquisition of seedlings produced in Ellepot® showed greater effective productivity of the implantation, less effective productivity of the post-planting maintenance, however, the lowest uniform annual cost equivalent when compared to the investment projects that employed seedlings produced in polyethylene bags and polyethylene tubes.
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Palavras-chave
Análise de investimentos, Custos operacionais, Estudo de tempos, Monte Carlo, Restauração florestal, Investment analysis, Operational costs, Times study, Monte Carlo method, Forest restoration