A economia política do renminbi: uma análise dos dez primeiros anos da internacionalização da moeda chinesa (2009-2019)
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Data
2021-05-26
Autores
Pires, Desirée Almeida [UNESP]
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
Esta tese tem como objetivo analisar o processo de internacionalização da moeda chinesa, o renminbi, no sistema monetário internacional hodierno desde 2009. Diante do expressivo aumento da relevância da China na economia mundial ao longo dos últimos quarenta anos, bem como da crise global deflagrada em 2008 nos Estados Unidos, diversos autores passaram a argumentar que o dólar irá compartilhar o papel de moeda-reserva do sistema monetário internacional com outras moedas a médio e longo prazo. Nesse cenário, o renminbi despontou como candidato plausível à condição de moeda internacional juntamente com o dólar, devido à estratégia internacionalização promovida pela China por meio de políticas estatais e de abertura controlada de seus mercados. O processo de internacionalização da moeda chinesa é analisado a partir da perspectiva da teoria crítica das Relações Internacionais, de modo que o sistema monetário internacional é considerado uma instituição passível de mudanças. Do ponto de vista econômico, o processo de internacionalização alavancou o renminbi nesse sistema, permitindo que desempenhasse de forma mais categórica as seis funções da moeda, o que promoveu sua ascensão na hierarquia monetária internacional do patamar de plebeian currency para o de patrician currency. Em relação aos objetivos da China, a internacionalização do renminbi visa amplificar as possibilidades de comércio e investimento do país e, dessa forma, atribuir viabilidade ao longo percurso que ainda resta ao país para avançar econômica e politicamente no sistema internacional. No curto prazo, o objetivo chinês é promover uma alteração em uma das instituições da atual ordem mundial – o sistema monetário internacional. No longo prazo, o processo de internacionalização do renminbi, associado a outras mudanças promovidas pela China nas demais forças que compõem a estrutura histórica contemporânea, a saber capacidades materiais e ideias, busca promover uma alteração da ordem mundial.
This thesis aims to analyze the process of internationalization of the Chinese currency, the renminbi, in the international monetary system since 2009. Given the significant increase in China’s relevance in the world economy over the last forty years, as well as the global crisis that erupted in the United States in 2008, several authors began to argue that the dollar will share the role of reserve currency of the international monetary system with other currencies in the medium and long term. In this scenario, the renminbi emerged as a plausible candidate for the condition of international currency along with the dollar. This was possible due to the internationalization strategy promoted by China through state policies and controlled opening of its markets. The internationalization process of Chinese currency is analyzed from the perspective of the critical theory of International Relations, in which the international monetary system is considered as an institution subject to change. From an economic point of view, the internationalization process leveraged the renminbi in this system, allowing it to perform more categorically the six functions of currency, thus promoting its rise in the international monetary hierarchy from the level of plebeian currency to that of patrician currency level. Regarding China’s objectives, the internationalization of the renminbi aims to expand the country’s trade and investment possibilities and, in this way, attribute viability to the long path that the country still needs to advance economically and politically in the international system. In the short term, the Chinese objective is to promote a change in one of current world order institutions – the international monetary system. In the long term and associated with other changes promoted by China in the other forces that set the contemporary historical structure (namely material capacities and ideas), the process of renminbi internationalization seeks to promote a change in the world order.
This thesis aims to analyze the process of internationalization of the Chinese currency, the renminbi, in the international monetary system since 2009. Given the significant increase in China’s relevance in the world economy over the last forty years, as well as the global crisis that erupted in the United States in 2008, several authors began to argue that the dollar will share the role of reserve currency of the international monetary system with other currencies in the medium and long term. In this scenario, the renminbi emerged as a plausible candidate for the condition of international currency along with the dollar. This was possible due to the internationalization strategy promoted by China through state policies and controlled opening of its markets. The internationalization process of Chinese currency is analyzed from the perspective of the critical theory of International Relations, in which the international monetary system is considered as an institution subject to change. From an economic point of view, the internationalization process leveraged the renminbi in this system, allowing it to perform more categorically the six functions of currency, thus promoting its rise in the international monetary hierarchy from the level of plebeian currency to that of patrician currency level. Regarding China’s objectives, the internationalization of the renminbi aims to expand the country’s trade and investment possibilities and, in this way, attribute viability to the long path that the country still needs to advance economically and politically in the international system. In the short term, the Chinese objective is to promote a change in one of current world order institutions – the international monetary system. In the long term and associated with other changes promoted by China in the other forces that set the contemporary historical structure (namely material capacities and ideas), the process of renminbi internationalization seeks to promote a change in the world order.
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Palavras-chave
Hierarquia monetária, Renminbi, Hegemonia, Economia política internacional, Monetary hierarchy, Hegemony, International political economy