Ciclos clássicos num ambiente de racionalidade limitada
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Data
2003-12-01
Autores
Silveira, Jaylson Jair da [UNESP]
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Editor
Universidade de São Paulo (USP), Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas da FEA
Resumo
O presente trabalho toma como ponto de partida o modelo macrodinâmico de Richard M. Goodwin, apresentado no clássico artigo A Growth Cycle (1967). Neste modelo a interação entre distribuição de renda e acumulação de capital gera um ciclo de crescimento que oscila em torno de uma trajetória de crescimento equilibrado. O objetivo do presente trabalho é investigar a possibilidade de existência de ciclos goodwinianos com heterogeneidade de salários e de taxas de lucro. Essa análise é realizada considerando o processo de concorrência entre trabalhadores num ambiente de racionalidade limitada. Para formalizar o processo de concorrência entre trabalhadores foram utilizados dois recursos: (i) a alegoria das ilhas , que tem sido amplamente adotada na macroeconomia moderna, a fim de apreender situações de informação imperfeita; e (ii) os instrumentos analíticos desenvolvidos pela teoria dos jogos evolucionários aplicada a ambientes sociais. O modelo construído combina o modelo de Goodwin com uma formalização estilizada do fluxo de trabalho como um processo de imitação num ambiente de racionalidade limitada (dinâmica de replicação num contexto social). Neste modelo demonstra-se a possibilidade de o sistema econômico não convergir para um estado de equilíbrio de longo prazo e a possibilidade do sistema econômico convergir para um ciclo goodwiniano caracterizado por heterogeneidade de salários e de taxas de lucro.
This paper starts from the macrodynamical model developed by Richard M. Goodwin, which was first shown in the seminal paper A Growth Cycle (Goodwin, 1967). In this model it was described an interaction between income-distribution and capital accumulation that generates a growth cycle swinging along a balanced growth path. The objective of this work is to investigate the possibility of existence of goodwinian cycles with heterogeneity in wage and in profit rates. This task is carried out considering the competitive process among workers within a context of bounded-rationality. The competitive process was modelled on the bases of two tools: (i) islands´s allegory which has been broadly adopted in the modern macroeconomics in order to apprehend situations of imperfect information; and (ii) the analytic instruments developed by the evolutionary game theory applied to the social environment. The model built combines Goodwin´s model with a stylized formalization of the workers flow as a process of imitation within a context of bounded-rationality (social-based replicator dynamics). In this model two results are demonstrated: the possibility of the economy not converge to a long run equilibrium and the possibility of the economy to present a goodwinian cycle with heterogeneity in wage and in profit rates.
This paper starts from the macrodynamical model developed by Richard M. Goodwin, which was first shown in the seminal paper A Growth Cycle (Goodwin, 1967). In this model it was described an interaction between income-distribution and capital accumulation that generates a growth cycle swinging along a balanced growth path. The objective of this work is to investigate the possibility of existence of goodwinian cycles with heterogeneity in wage and in profit rates. This task is carried out considering the competitive process among workers within a context of bounded-rationality. The competitive process was modelled on the bases of two tools: (i) islands´s allegory which has been broadly adopted in the modern macroeconomics in order to apprehend situations of imperfect information; and (ii) the analytic instruments developed by the evolutionary game theory applied to the social environment. The model built combines Goodwin´s model with a stylized formalization of the workers flow as a process of imitation within a context of bounded-rationality (social-based replicator dynamics). In this model two results are demonstrated: the possibility of the economy not converge to a long run equilibrium and the possibility of the economy to present a goodwinian cycle with heterogeneity in wage and in profit rates.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
ciclos clássicos, jogo evolucionário, racionalidade limitada, growth cycle, evolutionary game, bounded rationality
Como citar
Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo). Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas da FEA-USP, v. 33, n. 4, p. 701-734, 2003.