Establishing the risk of neonatal mortality using a fuzzy predictive model
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Data
2009-09-01
Autores
Nascimento, Luiz Fernando C.
Rizol, Paloma Maria S. Rocha [UNESP]
Abiuzi, Luciana B.
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Editor
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz
Resumo
O objetivo do artigo foi avaliar o uso da lógica fuzzy para estimar possibilidade de óbito neonatal. Desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional com base na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy, tendo como variáveis peso ao nascer, idade gestacional, escore de Apgar e relato de natimorto. Empregou-se o método de inferência de Mamdani, e a variável de saída foi o risco de morte neonatal. Criaram-se 24 regras de acordo com as variáveis de entrada, e a validação do modelo utilizou um banco de dados real de uma cidade brasileira. A acurácia foi estimada pela curva ROC; os riscos foram comparados pelo teste t de Student. O programa MATLAB 6.5 foi usado para construir o modelo. Os riscos médios foram menores para os que sobreviveram (p < 0,001). A acurácia do modelo foi 0,90. A maior acurácia foi com possibilidade de risco igual ou menor que 25% (sensibilidade = 0,70, especificidade = 0,98, valor preditivo negativo = 0,99 e valor preditivo positivo = 0,22). O modelo mostrou acurácia e valor preditivo negativo bons, podendo ser utilizado em hospitais gerais.
The objective of this study was to develop a fuzzy model to estimate the possibility of neonatal mortality. A computing model was built, based on the fuzziness of the following variables: newborn birth weight, gestational age at delivery, Apgar score, and previous report of stillbirth. The inference used was Mamdani's method and the output was the risk of neonatal death given as a percentage. 24 rules were created according to the inputs. The validation model used a real data file with records from a Brazilian city. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the accuracy of the model, while average risks were compared using the Student t test. MATLAB 6.5 software was used to build the model. The average risks were smaller in survivor newborn (p < 0.001). The accuracy of the model was 0.90. The higher accuracy occurred with risk below 25%, corresponding to 0.70 in respect to sensitivity, 0.98 specificity, 0.99 negative predictive value and 0.22 positive predictive value. The model showed a good accuracy, as well as a good negative predictive value and could be used in general hospitals.
The objective of this study was to develop a fuzzy model to estimate the possibility of neonatal mortality. A computing model was built, based on the fuzziness of the following variables: newborn birth weight, gestational age at delivery, Apgar score, and previous report of stillbirth. The inference used was Mamdani's method and the output was the risk of neonatal death given as a percentage. 24 rules were created according to the inputs. The validation model used a real data file with records from a Brazilian city. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the accuracy of the model, while average risks were compared using the Student t test. MATLAB 6.5 software was used to build the model. The average risks were smaller in survivor newborn (p < 0.001). The accuracy of the model was 0.90. The higher accuracy occurred with risk below 25%, corresponding to 0.70 in respect to sensitivity, 0.98 specificity, 0.99 negative predictive value and 0.22 positive predictive value. The model showed a good accuracy, as well as a good negative predictive value and could be used in general hospitals.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Mortalidade Neonatal, Lógica Fuzzy, Computação em Informática Médica, Fatores de Risco, Valor Preditivo dos Testes, Neonatal Mortality, Fuzzy Logic, Medical Informatics Computing, Risk Factors, Predictive Value of Tests
Como citar
Cadernos de Saúde Pública. Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, v. 25, n. 9, p. 2043-2052, 2009.