Indústria 4.0 e Mercado de Trabalho: uma análise comparativa da estrutura ocupacional brasileira
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2022-03-16
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
O sistema econômico atual vem vivenciando o início de uma nova transformação de grandes proporções em termos produtivos e tecnológicos. A partir de meados da década de 2010 o desenvolvimento de novas tecnologias digitais (e.g., inteligência artificial, big data, IoT, etc.), gestadas nas décadas de 1970 e 1980 com o surgimento explosivo das tecnologias de informação e comunicação, apresenta um novo panorama para a morfologia econômica vigente. Com as máquinas adquirindo novas competências e expandindo sua performance para habilidades cognitivas, antes exclusivamente humanas, a mudança da demanda por habilidades e ocupações é um fato. Recentemente, a literatura vem discutindo amplamente as potencialidades desse conjunto de inovações para a indústria, nomeada Indústria 4.0, e como elas afetarão a mercado de trabalho. Dado seu caráter contemporâneo ainda em construção, muitas dúvidas e incertezas vêm alarmando as consequências para a classe trabalhadora. Assim, ainda são necessários muitos estudos para que seja possível dimensionar corretamente suas consequências e o que pode, e deve, ser feito para fomentar o desenvolvimento inovativo e fornecer condições mínimas para que os trabalhadores consigam absorver as novas demandas, em termos de habilidades, e garantir emprego. Partindo dessa justificativa, o objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar criticamente a evolução da estrutura ocupacional brasileira entre 2009 e 2019, a luz das novas tendências, em termos de ocupações emergentes e altamente suscetíveis à automação, para o mundo do trabalho. Para tal, será realizada uma análise comparativa com a evolução dos EUA, a fim de dimensionar a distância que o Brasil se encontra de um país na fronteira tecnológica como o norte-americano. A hipótese central é de que, dado os determinantes históricos da estrutura produtiva nacional, o país não apresentará níveis de crescimento satisfatórios, ou mesmo não seguirá a tendência tecnológica e estadunidense, para as ocupações emergentes, dado que não foi capaz de construir adequadamente as capacidades inovativas e produtivas para seu processo de transformação estrutural. Entretanto, as conclusões mostram uma situação diferente. Apesar de o Brasil ter apresentado elevados crescimentos de emprego em ocupações importantes selecionadas e seguir, em sua maioria, as tendências, o patamar total de boa parte delas ainda é extremamente reduzido quando comparado os EUA, sugerindo que as elevações constatadas precisaram ser ainda mais intensas para que a estrutura ocupacional refletisse um processo de modernização digital em andamento
The current economic system has been experiencing the beginning of a new transformation of great proportions in terms of production and technology. From the mid-2010s, the development of new digital technologies (eg, artificial intelligence, big data, IoT, etc.), created in the 1970s and 1980s with the explosive emergence of information and communication technologies, present a new panorama for the current economic morphology. With machines acquiring new skills and expanding their performance to cognitive abilities, previously exclusively human, the changing demand for skills and occupations is a fact. Recently, the literature has been extensively discussing the potential of this set of innovations for the industry, named Industry 4.0 and how they will affect the labor market. Given its contemporary character still under construction, many doubts and uncertainties have been alarming the consequences for the working class. Thus, many studies are still needed so that it is possible to correctly dimension its consequences and what can, and should, be done to foster innovative development and provide minimum conditions for workers to be able to absorb the new demands, in terms of skills, and guarantee job. Based on this justification, the objective of this work is to critically evaluate the evolution of the Brazilian occupational structure between 2009 and 2019, in the light of new trends, in terms of emerging occupations and highly susceptible to automation, for the world of work. To this end, a comparative analysis will be carried out with the evolution of the USA, in order to measure the distance that Brazil is from a country on the technological frontier like the North American. The central hypothesis is that, given the historical determinants of the national productive structure, the country will not present satisfactory levels of growth, or even will not follow the technological and US trend, for emerging occupations, given that it has not been able to adequately build the innovative and productive capacities for its process of structural transformation. However, the findings show a different situation. Although Brazil has shown high employment growth in selected important occupations and mostly follows trends, the total level of most of them is still extremely low when compared to the US, suggesting that the increases observed needed to be even more intense for the occupational structure to reflect an ongoing digital modernization process
The current economic system has been experiencing the beginning of a new transformation of great proportions in terms of production and technology. From the mid-2010s, the development of new digital technologies (eg, artificial intelligence, big data, IoT, etc.), created in the 1970s and 1980s with the explosive emergence of information and communication technologies, present a new panorama for the current economic morphology. With machines acquiring new skills and expanding their performance to cognitive abilities, previously exclusively human, the changing demand for skills and occupations is a fact. Recently, the literature has been extensively discussing the potential of this set of innovations for the industry, named Industry 4.0 and how they will affect the labor market. Given its contemporary character still under construction, many doubts and uncertainties have been alarming the consequences for the working class. Thus, many studies are still needed so that it is possible to correctly dimension its consequences and what can, and should, be done to foster innovative development and provide minimum conditions for workers to be able to absorb the new demands, in terms of skills, and guarantee job. Based on this justification, the objective of this work is to critically evaluate the evolution of the Brazilian occupational structure between 2009 and 2019, in the light of new trends, in terms of emerging occupations and highly susceptible to automation, for the world of work. To this end, a comparative analysis will be carried out with the evolution of the USA, in order to measure the distance that Brazil is from a country on the technological frontier like the North American. The central hypothesis is that, given the historical determinants of the national productive structure, the country will not present satisfactory levels of growth, or even will not follow the technological and US trend, for emerging occupations, given that it has not been able to adequately build the innovative and productive capacities for its process of structural transformation. However, the findings show a different situation. Although Brazil has shown high employment growth in selected important occupations and mostly follows trends, the total level of most of them is still extremely low when compared to the US, suggesting that the increases observed needed to be even more intense for the occupational structure to reflect an ongoing digital modernization process
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Indústria 4.0, Mercado de Trabalho, Habilidades, Ocupações, Tecnology, Industry 4.0, Job Market, Skills, Occupations, Tecnologia