SIRSi compartmental model for COVID-19 pandemic with immunity loss

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dc.contributor.authorBatistela, Cristiane M.
dc.contributor.authorCorrea, Diego P.F.
dc.contributor.authorBueno, Átila M [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorPiqueira, José Roberto C.
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Federal do ABC (UFABC)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-25T11:06:12Z
dc.date.available2021-06-25T11:06:12Z
dc.date.issued2021-01-01
dc.description.abstractThe coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak led the world to an unprecedented health and economic crisis. In an attempt to respond to this emergency, researchers worldwide are intensively studying the dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic. In this study, a Susceptible - Infected - Removed - Sick (SIRSi) compartmental model is proposed, which is a modification of the classical Susceptible - Infected - Removed (SIR) model. The proposed model considers the possibility of unreported or asymptomatic cases, and differences in the immunity within a population, i.e., the possibility that the acquired immunity may be temporary, which occurs when adopting one of the parameters (γ) other than zero. Local asymptotic stability and endemic equilibrium conditions are proved for the proposed model. The model is adjusted to the data from three major cities of the state of São Paulo in Brazil, namely, São Paulo, Santos, and Campinas, providing estimations of duration and peaks related to the disease propagation. This study reveals that temporary immunity favors a second wave of infection and it depends on the time interval for a recovered person to be susceptible again. It also indicates the possibility that a greater number of patients would get infected with decreased time for reinfection.en
dc.description.affiliationPolytechnic School of University of São Paulo - EPUSP
dc.description.affiliationFederal University of ABC - UFABC
dc.description.affiliationSão Paulo State University - UNESP
dc.description.affiliationUnespSão Paulo State University - UNESP
dc.description.sponsorshipConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
dc.description.sponsorshipIdCNPq: 302883/2018-5
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110388
dc.identifier.citationChaos, Solitons and Fractals, v. 142.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110388
dc.identifier.issn0960-0779
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85094857411
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/208094
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofChaos, Solitons and Fractals
dc.sourceScopus
dc.subjectCompartmental models
dc.subjectCovid-19
dc.subjectEquilibrium analysis
dc.subjectParameter fitting
dc.titleSIRSi compartmental model for COVID-19 pandemic with immunity lossen
dc.typeArtigo
unesp.author.orcid0000-0002-1113-3330[3]
unesp.author.orcid0000-0003-0153-6686[4]

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