Brazilian light vehicle fleet decarbonization scenarios for 2050

Abstract

To encourage sustainable actions in the transportation sector, energy scenarios play a critical role in defining public policies. Possible scenarios for the technological distribution of light vehicles in 2050 were discussed to decarbonize the Brazilian transportation sector. These scenarios included internal combustion vehicles utilizing ethanol, gasoline hybrid vehicles, and battery-electric vehicles. An emissions minimization algorithm was proposed to identify potential decarbonization scenarios, considering fleet growth conditions obtained from national databases and Brazilian electric generation mix projections. The target was to achieve a 58% reduction in emissions by 2050. A 10% level of battery electric vehicle integration, combined with the widespread use of ethanol as a fuel source for internal combustion vehicles, could achieve the 58% reduction target. This highlights the importance of biofuels in low-carbon policies. Increasing the efficiency of the ethanol production chain could bring the decarbonization target up to 77%. The maximum sustainable share of electric vehicles in the Brazilian electric mix was 38%, indicating favorable scenarios for increasing the use of electric vehicles. The study highlights the potential for reducing emissions in the transportation sector using biofuels and electric vehicles, as well as the importance of optimizing the production chain of biofuels to maximize their efficiency.