Assessing the distribution and conservation status of a long-horned beetle with species distribution models

Abstract

Data shortfalls on species distribution affect species differently, but it is frequent among insects. Species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to fill biogeographic deficits and provide support for practical conservation actions, particularly for cryptic or hard to survey species. We employed SDMs to evaluate one such species, the long-horned beetle (Macrodontia cervicornis), listed as ‘vulnerable’ in the IUCN’s Red List of Threatened Species. Given new distributional data for this species, we applied three different SDMs to: (1) provide the first assessment of this species’ distribution and potential dispersal routes; (2) evaluate the effectiveness of the current South American protected areas system for its conservation; and (3) discuss its potential distribution, as well as historical, biogeographical, and taxonomic issues related to it. Our models reached fair True Skilled Statistics values (TSS > 0.5), with the core area for M. cervicornis located in the Amazon forest, although suitable areas were also predicted along the Atlantic forest. Areas in the dry diagonal South American corridor (dry biomes of Cerrado, Caatinga, and Pampas) in South America were not predicted as suitable. The preference of M. cervicornis for humid areas with high temperatures may guarantee a better physiological control for dehydration, considering that large insects are more affected by water loss. In general, approximately 15 % of the distribution of M. cervicornis is in humid protected areas. The disconnected distribution of the long-horned beetle may be an indication of the existence of cryptic species under the same classification. We suggest that similar studies with other insect groups (e.g. butterflies, bees) should be conducted to properly assess their distributions, conservation status, and responses to hot-humid gradients throughout South America.