Modelos agrometeorológicos para previsão da produtividade e qualidade de bebida natural do cafeeiro
Carregando...
Data
2016-02-19
Autores
Aparecido, Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira [UNESP]
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
A previsão da produtividade dos cultivos, através de modelos agrometeorológicos, são técnicas estratégicas robustas para a realização do planejamento, uma vez que o conhecimento prévio das safras agrícolas facilitam as tomadas de decisões. A previsão em modelagem, diferentemente de estimação, é determinar a partir de dados atuais uma condição futura, como por exemplo a produtividade e a qualidade de produtos agrícolas. Objetivou-se desenvolver e ajustar modelos agrometeorológicos para a previsão da produtividade e qualidade de bebida do cafeeiro para o Estado de Minas Gerais. Foram utilizados na previsão os elementos meteorológicos mensais das localidades do Sul de Minas: Guaxupé, Monte Santo de Minas e São Sebastião do Paraíso e do Cerrado Mineiro: Coromandel, Serra do Salitre e Tiros. Os modelos foram construídos com regressão linear múltipla, visando maximizar a antecipação da previsão. A variável dependente foi à produtividade de cada localidade, enquanto que, as variáveis independentes foram os elementos meteorológicos mensais do período de 1997 a 2014. Os elementos utilizados foram à temperatura do ar (ºC), a precipitação pluviométrica (mm), a evapotranspiração potencial (mm), o armazenamento de água no solo (mm), a deficiência hídrica (mm) e o excedente hídrico (mm). Os modelos agrometeorológicas foram classificados buscando a minimização do erro percentual absoluto médio (MAPE) e o aumento do coeficiente de determinação ajustado (R² ajustado). Os modelos agrometeorológicos desenvolvidos em função dos elementos meteorológicos foram acurados para todas as regiões, pois o maior MAPE foi de 3.13% e 2.82% em São Sebastião do Paraiso e Tiros, respectivamente. As menores previsões foram de seis e cinco meses para as localidades de Guaxupé e Coromandel, respectivamente. As faixas de valores mensais para cada elemento meteorológico indicam que para ocorrência de alta qualidade de bebida é necessário temperaturas do ar mais elevadas no Cerrado, menores precipitações, menores armazenamentos e maiores deficiências hídricas quando comparados com ao Sul de Minas Gerais.
The agrometeorological models for crop yield forecasting are robust for strategic planning techniques, since, prior knowledge of agriculture crops facilitate decision making. The forecasting, different from estimation, is from actual data determine a future condition, such as yields, phenology duration and quality of agricultural products. This work aimed to develop and adjust agrometeorological models to forecast yield and coffee natural drink quality for State of Minas Gerais. We forecasted yields as functions of monthly meteorological variables for three locations in the southern region of the state of Minas Gerais, i.e. Guaxupé, Monte Santo de Minas, and São Sebastião do Paraíso, and for three locations in the Cerrado Mineiro region of Minas Gerais, i.e. Coromandel, Serra do Salitre and Tiros. We used multiple linear regressions selecting independent variables (IV) trying to maximize the anticipation of the yield forecasting for each locality. The IV were the monthly weather elements from 1997 to 2014. The elements used were the air temperature (°C) rainfall (mm), the potential evapotranspiration (mm), the water storage in the soil (mm), the water deficit (mm) and the water surplus (mm). The selection of IV was made testing all possible combinations (APC), avoiding multicollinearity. The models were built with multiple linear regression to maximize the anticipation of forecast. The better models were classified seeking to minimize the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), determination coefficient (adjusted R²) near 1 and selecting model only with significance at 0.01. The agrometeorological models were accurate for all regions and the lower anticipation period were six and five months for the locations of Guaxupé and Coromandel, respectively. Ranges of monthly values for each meteorological element were established indicating that to reach a high quality of drink at Cerrado it is necessary higher temperatures, lower precipitations, lower storages and higher water deficits when compared to the South of Minas Gerais.
The agrometeorological models for crop yield forecasting are robust for strategic planning techniques, since, prior knowledge of agriculture crops facilitate decision making. The forecasting, different from estimation, is from actual data determine a future condition, such as yields, phenology duration and quality of agricultural products. This work aimed to develop and adjust agrometeorological models to forecast yield and coffee natural drink quality for State of Minas Gerais. We forecasted yields as functions of monthly meteorological variables for three locations in the southern region of the state of Minas Gerais, i.e. Guaxupé, Monte Santo de Minas, and São Sebastião do Paraíso, and for three locations in the Cerrado Mineiro region of Minas Gerais, i.e. Coromandel, Serra do Salitre and Tiros. We used multiple linear regressions selecting independent variables (IV) trying to maximize the anticipation of the yield forecasting for each locality. The IV were the monthly weather elements from 1997 to 2014. The elements used were the air temperature (°C) rainfall (mm), the potential evapotranspiration (mm), the water storage in the soil (mm), the water deficit (mm) and the water surplus (mm). The selection of IV was made testing all possible combinations (APC), avoiding multicollinearity. The models were built with multiple linear regression to maximize the anticipation of forecast. The better models were classified seeking to minimize the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), determination coefficient (adjusted R²) near 1 and selecting model only with significance at 0.01. The agrometeorological models were accurate for all regions and the lower anticipation period were six and five months for the locations of Guaxupé and Coromandel, respectively. Ranges of monthly values for each meteorological element were established indicating that to reach a high quality of drink at Cerrado it is necessary higher temperatures, lower precipitations, lower storages and higher water deficits when compared to the South of Minas Gerais.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Coffea arabica L., Modelagem, Agrometeorologia, Clima, Modelling, Agrometeorology, Climate