Análise das variáveis econômicas impactantes na exportação brasileira de açúcar entre 1997 e 2015
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2018-08-29
Autores
Mathias, Lucca Pizzo
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
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Objetivo: Este trabalho tem como objetivo geral mensurar e analisar como variáveis econômicas relevantes influenciaram nas exportações brasileiras de açúcar no período de 1997 a 2015. Metodologia / Procedimentos de Pesquisa: Foi utilizado para análise cinco modelos. No primeiro, mensurou-se o impacto das variáveis independentes: preço do açúcar no mercado mundial, taxa de câmbio, preço do etanol e estoque mundial sobre a exportação brasileira de açúcar no mercado mundial. No segundo e terceiro, mensurou-se o impacto das exportações da Tailândia e Austrália (maiores exportadores mundiais ao lado do Brasil), no quarto e quinto mensurou-se o impacto dos dois principais países importadores de açúcar mundiais (China e Indonésia) sobre as exportações brasileiras. Resultados e Discussões: No primeiro modelo, as variáveis: produção, preço do açúcar, câmbio, preço do etanol, estoque e a exportação de açúcar se mostraram significativas com os seguintes coeficientes: 1,52; 0,12; 0,24; -0,32; -0,13 e -0,16. Quanto ao impacto nas exportações brasileiras pelos dois principais países exportadores concorrentes do Brasil: Tailândia e Austrália, diagnosticou-se impacto das exportações da Tailândia nas exportações brasileiras na forma contemporânea e primeira defasagem, coeficiente de -0,04 e -0,08, e das exportações australianas nas exportações brasileiras na primeira defasagem, 0,30. Quanto ao impacto dos principais importadores mundiais de açúcar nas exportações brasileiras: China e Indonésia diagnosticaram-se impacto da variável estoque de respectivamente: -0,05 e -0,04, e do PIB de respectivamente 0,72 e 0,19, nas exportações brasileiras. Implicações Gerenciais: Uma das contribuições gerenciais do trabalho é a melhora na decisão dos gestores de usina na tomada de decisão, auxiliando o planejamento de longo, médio e curto prazo. Com isso, o resultado dos modelos estudados contribui para isso, possibilitando a construção de cenários possíveis e acompanhamento das variáveis ao longo do tempo. Destaca-se a concorrência da Tailândia em que impulsiona as exportações brasileiras de maneira negativa e o mercado chinês, com impacto positivo nas exportações brasileiras, considerado um dos maiores mundiais. Conclusões e Limitações da Pesquisa: As variáveis produção de açúcar, preço do etanol e taxa de câmbio demonstraram-se significativas em todos os modelos estudados. Constatou-se ainda impactos do estoque, das exportações de países concorrentes como Tailândia e Austrália e dos principais importadores China e Tailândia necessitando-se um acompanhamento constante da variação destas variáveis para entender a dinâmica das exportações brasileiras. As limitações do trabalho foram do banco de dados onde não se obteve resultados mais atualizados e não se inseriu mais variáveis no modelo, como preço doméstico, por falta de dados. Originalidade: Os estudos na área comtemplam modelos mais genéricos e menos específicos com menos variáveis ao relacionarmos com o tema açúcar. O estudo também trouxe uma análise da concorrência e dos maiores mercados importadores dessa commodity. Como sugestões para pesquisas futuras, tem-se um estudo das variáveis que impactam a produção de açúcar brasileiro e como ela se comporta ao longo do tempo, estudo sobre custos da usinas do setor sucroalcooleiro, a adição da variável preço doméstico de açúcar ao modelo, um estudo sobre o preço do etanol ser mais relevante que o preço do açúcar de acordo com o resultado dos coeficientes e a consideração nos modelos sobre mercado futuro que tem influência na quantidade exportada de açúcar.
Objective: This study has as a general objective to measure and analyze how relevant economic variables influenced the Brazilian sugar exports from 1997 to 2015. Methodology/Research Procedures: Five models were used for this analysis. In the first model, the impact of the independent variables sugar price in the international market, exchange rate, ethanol price, and global stock was measured on the Brazilian sugar exports in the international market. In addition, the impact of exports from Thailand and Australia (world’s largest exporters alongside Brazil), which consisted of the second and third models, and the impact of the two main sugar-importing countries (China and Indonesia), which consisted of the fourth and fifth models, were both measured on the Brazilian exports. Results and Discussion: In the first model, the variables production, sugar price, exchange rate, ethanol price, stock, and sugar export were significant and presented the coefficients 1.52, 0.12, 0.24, −0.32, −0.13, and −0.16, respectively. We observed an impact of the Thai exports on the current and first lag Brazilian exports, with coefficients of −0.04 and −0.08, respectively, as well as an impact of the Australian exports on the first lag Brazilian exports, with a coefficient of 0.30. Regarding the impact of the main sugar importers on Brazilian exports, China and Indonesia presented an impact of the variables stock (−0.05 and −0.04, respectively) and GDP (0.72 and 0.19, respectively) on the Brazilian exports. Management Implications: One of the managerial contributions of this study is the improvement in the decision-making of managers of mill plants, assisting in the planning of long, medium, and short term. The result of the studied models contributes to the construction of possible scenarios and monitoring of the variables over time. It is worth noting the Thailand competition, which drives Brazilian exports negatively, and the Chinese market, with a positive impact on the Brazilian exports, considered one of the largest in the world. Conclusions and Research Limitations: The variables sugar production, ethanol price, and exchange rate were significant in all studied models. We also observed impacts of stock, exports from competing countries such as Thailand and Australia, and the main importers (China and Thailand), requiring a constant monitoring of the variation of these variables to understand the dynamics of Brazilian exports. The research limitations were related to the database, with a lack of most up-to-date data and variables used in the model, such as domestic price. Originality: Studies in the area contemplate more generic and less specific models, with fewer variables when dealing with sugar. The study also brought an analysis regarding the competition and the largest import markets of this commodity. As suggestions, we can mention a study of variables that impact on the Brazilian sugar production, addition of the variable domestic sugar price to the model, a study on the ethanol price to be more relevant than the sugar price according to the results of coefficients, and a consideration in the models of future market, which influence the amount of exported sugar.
Objective: This study has as a general objective to measure and analyze how relevant economic variables influenced the Brazilian sugar exports from 1997 to 2015. Methodology/Research Procedures: Five models were used for this analysis. In the first model, the impact of the independent variables sugar price in the international market, exchange rate, ethanol price, and global stock was measured on the Brazilian sugar exports in the international market. In addition, the impact of exports from Thailand and Australia (world’s largest exporters alongside Brazil), which consisted of the second and third models, and the impact of the two main sugar-importing countries (China and Indonesia), which consisted of the fourth and fifth models, were both measured on the Brazilian exports. Results and Discussion: In the first model, the variables production, sugar price, exchange rate, ethanol price, stock, and sugar export were significant and presented the coefficients 1.52, 0.12, 0.24, −0.32, −0.13, and −0.16, respectively. We observed an impact of the Thai exports on the current and first lag Brazilian exports, with coefficients of −0.04 and −0.08, respectively, as well as an impact of the Australian exports on the first lag Brazilian exports, with a coefficient of 0.30. Regarding the impact of the main sugar importers on Brazilian exports, China and Indonesia presented an impact of the variables stock (−0.05 and −0.04, respectively) and GDP (0.72 and 0.19, respectively) on the Brazilian exports. Management Implications: One of the managerial contributions of this study is the improvement in the decision-making of managers of mill plants, assisting in the planning of long, medium, and short term. The result of the studied models contributes to the construction of possible scenarios and monitoring of the variables over time. It is worth noting the Thailand competition, which drives Brazilian exports negatively, and the Chinese market, with a positive impact on the Brazilian exports, considered one of the largest in the world. Conclusions and Research Limitations: The variables sugar production, ethanol price, and exchange rate were significant in all studied models. We also observed impacts of stock, exports from competing countries such as Thailand and Australia, and the main importers (China and Thailand), requiring a constant monitoring of the variation of these variables to understand the dynamics of Brazilian exports. The research limitations were related to the database, with a lack of most up-to-date data and variables used in the model, such as domestic price. Originality: Studies in the area contemplate more generic and less specific models, with fewer variables when dealing with sugar. The study also brought an analysis regarding the competition and the largest import markets of this commodity. As suggestions, we can mention a study of variables that impact on the Brazilian sugar production, addition of the variable domestic sugar price to the model, a study on the ethanol price to be more relevant than the sugar price according to the results of coefficients, and a consideration in the models of future market, which influence the amount of exported sugar.
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Exportação de açúcar, Variáveis impactantes, Países importadores, Países exportadores concorrentes, Determinantes de exportação, Modelo de oferta, Modelo de exportação