Transmissividade atmosférica da irradiação solar global infravermelha, horária e diária, em Botucatu/SP/Brasil
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Data
2020-04-06
Autores
Rossi, Luciano Ronaldo [UNESP]
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
O trabalho apresenta uma análise estatística e climática das irradiações global (HG) e global infravermelha (HGNIR) e das frações global total (Kt = HG/H0) e global infravermelha (KtNIR = HGNIR/H0NIR), transmitidas na atmosfera no período de 2001 a 2006 em Botucatu/SP/Brasil. Os valores das frações médias Kt e KtNIR (horária e diária) calculadas estatisticamente foram: Kth = 50,0%, KtNIRh = 42,0%, e Ktd = 56,0%, KtNIRd = 48,0%, respectivamente. O estudo mostra ainda a obtenção e a validação da equação de estimativa para KtNIR em função de Kt obtidas por regressão linear (y = ax), onde KtNIRh = 0,850Kth e KtNIRd = 0,855Ktd apresentaram elevados coeficientes de determinação: R2 = 0,981 e R2 = 0,987, respectivamente. Os valores horários obtidos na validação (ano típico e atípico) foram (rMBE)h = 1,0% e 0,2%, (rRMSE)h = 6,3% e 5,3%; dh = 0,994 e 0,996 respectivamente, enquanto que os valores diários foram (rMBE)d = 0,9% e 0,05%; (rRMSE)d = 3,4% e 2,6%; dd = 0,995 e 0,998. Os resultados mostram que as equações podem ser utilizadas com precisão e exatidão nas estimativas de KtNIR. A análise sazonal mostrou que a equação KtNIRh = 0,850Kth anual superestima KtNIRh no verão e primavera em 2,8% e 1,0%, e subestima-o no outono e inverno em 1,0% e 2,6%, respectivamente. Similarmente, KtNIRd = 0,855Ktd anual superestima KtNIRd no verão e primavera em 2,8% e 1,3% e subestima-o no outono e inverno em 1,0% e 2,1%, respectivamente. A análise por cobertura de céu mostrou que: o valor KtNIRh anual superestima KtNIRh nas coberturas de céu I e III em 6,1% e 0,5% respectivamente, subestima-o na cobertura de céu II em 0,5% , e apresenta o mesmo valor na cobertura de céu IV, enquanto que KtNIRd anual superestima KtNIRd por cobertura de céu I, II e III em 4,9%, 2,3% e 0,4% respectivamente e subestima-o na cobertura de céu IV em 1,0%. Os valores dos desvios, inferiores ao valor de 8,4%, referente às incertezas dos equipamentos de medidas, indicaram que as equações anuais podem ser utilizadas sem restrições com relação à sazonalidade e cobertura de céu.
This paper describes the statistical and climatic analysis of global (HG) and infrared global (HGNIR) irradiations, and total global (Kt = HG/H0) and infrared global (KtNIR = HGNIR/H0NIR) fractions, transmitted in the atmosphere from 2001 to 2006 in Botucatu/SP/Brazil: Values of mean fractions Kt and KtNIR (hourly and daily) calculated statistically were as follows: Kth = 50,0%, Kth NIR = 42,0%, and Ktd = 56,0%, KtNIR d = 48,0%, respectively. The study also presents obtaining and validation of the estimate equation for KtNIR as a function of Kt. The equations obtained by linear regression (y = ax) KtNIR h = 0,850Kth and KtNIR d = 0,855Ktd had high determination coefficient: R2 = 0,981 and 0,987 respectively. Hourly values based on validation (typical and atypical years) were as follows: (rMBE) h = 1,0% and 0,2%, (rMSE) h = 6,3% and 5,3%; d h = 0,994 and 0,996, respectively. Daily values were as follows: (rMBE) d = 0,9% and 0,05%; (rMSE) d = 3,4% and 2,6%; d d = 0,995 and 0,998. The results show that the equations can be used precisely and accurately for KtNIR estimates. Seasonal analysis showed that the annual KtNIR h = 0,850Kth equation overestimates KtNIR h in the summer and spring by 2,8% and 1,0% and underestimates it in the autumn and winter by 1,0% and 2,6%, respectively. Similarly, KtNIR d = 0,855Ktd equation anual overestimates KtNIR d in the summer and spring by 2,8% e 1,3% and underestimates it in the autumn and winter by 1,0% e 2,1%, respectively. Considering sky covers, the analysis showed that annual KtNIR h value overestimates KtNIR h in sky covers I and III by 6,1% and 0,5% respectively; underestimates it in sky cover II by 0,5%, and it has the same value of it in sky cover IV. Annual KtNIR d overestimates KtNIR d in sky covers I, II and III by 4,9%, 2,3% and 0,4% respectively; underestimates it in sky cover IV by 1,0%. Values of deviations, which were lower than 8,4% (referring to uncertainty of measuring instruments), showed that the annual equations can be used with no restrictions in relation to seasonal variation and sky cover.
This paper describes the statistical and climatic analysis of global (HG) and infrared global (HGNIR) irradiations, and total global (Kt = HG/H0) and infrared global (KtNIR = HGNIR/H0NIR) fractions, transmitted in the atmosphere from 2001 to 2006 in Botucatu/SP/Brazil: Values of mean fractions Kt and KtNIR (hourly and daily) calculated statistically were as follows: Kth = 50,0%, Kth NIR = 42,0%, and Ktd = 56,0%, KtNIR d = 48,0%, respectively. The study also presents obtaining and validation of the estimate equation for KtNIR as a function of Kt. The equations obtained by linear regression (y = ax) KtNIR h = 0,850Kth and KtNIR d = 0,855Ktd had high determination coefficient: R2 = 0,981 and 0,987 respectively. Hourly values based on validation (typical and atypical years) were as follows: (rMBE) h = 1,0% and 0,2%, (rMSE) h = 6,3% and 5,3%; d h = 0,994 and 0,996, respectively. Daily values were as follows: (rMBE) d = 0,9% and 0,05%; (rMSE) d = 3,4% and 2,6%; d d = 0,995 and 0,998. The results show that the equations can be used precisely and accurately for KtNIR estimates. Seasonal analysis showed that the annual KtNIR h = 0,850Kth equation overestimates KtNIR h in the summer and spring by 2,8% and 1,0% and underestimates it in the autumn and winter by 1,0% and 2,6%, respectively. Similarly, KtNIR d = 0,855Ktd equation anual overestimates KtNIR d in the summer and spring by 2,8% e 1,3% and underestimates it in the autumn and winter by 1,0% e 2,1%, respectively. Considering sky covers, the analysis showed that annual KtNIR h value overestimates KtNIR h in sky covers I and III by 6,1% and 0,5% respectively; underestimates it in sky cover II by 0,5%, and it has the same value of it in sky cover IV. Annual KtNIR d overestimates KtNIR d in sky covers I, II and III by 4,9%, 2,3% and 0,4% respectively; underestimates it in sky cover IV by 1,0%. Values of deviations, which were lower than 8,4% (referring to uncertainty of measuring instruments), showed that the annual equations can be used with no restrictions in relation to seasonal variation and sky cover.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Radiação solar, Espectral radiação, Radiação infravermelha próxima, Solar radiation, Spectral radiation, NIR radiation