Multi-Agent Simulation of Urban Social Dynamics for Spatial Load Forecasting

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dc.contributor.authorMelo, Joel D. [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorCarreno, Edgar Manuel [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorPadilha-Feltrin, Antonio [UNESP]
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE)
dc.date.accessioned2014-05-20T13:29:10Z
dc.date.available2014-05-20T13:29:10Z
dc.date.issued2012-11-01
dc.description.abstractA multi-agent system for spatial electric load forecasting, especially suited to simulating the different social dynamics involved in distribution systems, is presented. This approach improves the spatial forecasting techniques that usually consider the service zone as a static entity to model or simulate the spatial electric load forecasting in a city. This paper aims to determine how the electric load will be distributed among the sub-zones in the city. For this, the service zone is divided into several subzones, each subzone considered as an independent agent identified with a corresponding load level, and their relationships with the neighbor zones are represented through development probabilities. These probabilities are considered as input data for the simulation. Given this setting, different kinds of agents can be developed to simulate the growth pattern of the loads in distribution systems in parallel. The approach is tested with data from a real distribution system in a mid-size city; the results show a low spatial error when compared to real data. Less than 6% of the load growth was identified 0.71 km outside of its correct location on the test system.en
dc.description.affiliationUniv Estadual Paulista, UNESP, Dept Engn Eletr, Fac Engn Ilha Solteira, BR-15385000 Ilha Solteira, SP, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationCECE UNIOESTE, Foz de Iguacu, PR, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationUnespUniv Estadual Paulista, UNESP, Dept Engn Eletr, Fac Engn Ilha Solteira, BR-15385000 Ilha Solteira, SP, Brazil
dc.description.sponsorshipFundação de Ensino Pesquisa e Extensão de Ilha Solteira (FEPISA)
dc.description.sponsorshipCoordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
dc.description.sponsorshipConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
dc.description.sponsorshipIdCNPq: 303741/2009-0
dc.format.extent1870-1878
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2012.2190109
dc.identifier.citationIEEE Transactions on Power Systems. Piscataway: IEEE-Inst Electrical Electronics Engineers Inc, v. 27, n. 4, p. 1870-1878, 2012.
dc.identifier.doi10.1109/TPWRS.2012.2190109
dc.identifier.issn0885-8950
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/9803
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000310389000016
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
dc.relation.ispartofIEEE Transactions on Power Systems
dc.relation.ispartofjcr5.255
dc.relation.ispartofsjr2,742
dc.rights.accessRightsAcesso restrito
dc.sourceWeb of Science
dc.subjectAgenten
dc.subjectdistribution planningen
dc.subjectknowledge extractionen
dc.subjectland useen
dc.subjectmulti-agenten
dc.subjectspatial electric load forecastingen
dc.subjectspatial erroren
dc.titleMulti-Agent Simulation of Urban Social Dynamics for Spatial Load Forecastingen
dc.typeArtigo
dcterms.licensehttp://www.ieee.org/publications_standards/publications/rights/rights_policies.html
dcterms.rightsHolderIEEE-Inst Electrical Electronics Engineers Inc
unesp.author.lattes3886842168147059[3]
unesp.author.orcid0000-0001-6495-440X[3]
unesp.campusUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Faculdade de Engenharia, Ilha Solteirapt

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Artigos - Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS