Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais

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dc.contributor.authorMoraes, Wanderson Bucker
dc.contributor.authorde Jesus Junior, Waldir Cintra
dc.contributor.authorPeixoto, Leonardo de Azevedo
dc.contributor.authorMoraes, Willian Bucker [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorFurtado, Edson Luiz [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorda Silva, Lilianne Gomes
dc.contributor.authorCecílio, Roberto Avelino
dc.contributor.authorAlves, Fábio Ramos
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
dc.date.accessioned2014-05-27T11:26:21Z
dc.date.available2014-05-27T11:26:21Z
dc.date.issued2012-01-01
dc.description.abstractThe aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.en
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Plant Production Agricultural Science Center Federal University of Espirito Santo (UFES), 29500-000, Alegre, ES
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Plant Protection University Estadual Paulista 'Julio de Mesquita Filho' (UNESP), Botucatu, SP
dc.description.affiliationUnespDepartment of Plant Protection University Estadual Paulista 'Julio de Mesquita Filho' (UNESP), Botucatu, SP
dc.format.extent30-35
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0100-54052012000100005
dc.identifier.citationSumma Phytopathologica, v. 38, n. 1, p. 30-35, 2012.
dc.identifier.doi10.1590/S0100-54052012000100005
dc.identifier.file2-s2.0-84859782997.pdf
dc.identifier.issn0100-5405
dc.identifier.lattes3845989485833395
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6924-835X
dc.identifier.scieloS0100-54052012000100005
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-84859782997
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/73124
dc.language.isoeng
dc.language.isopor
dc.relation.ispartofSumma Phytopathologica
dc.relation.ispartofsjr0,258
dc.rights.accessRightsAcesso aberto
dc.sourceScopus
dc.subjectGeographic information system
dc.subjectGlobal warming
dc.subjectMoniliophthora roreri
dc.subjectTheobroma cacao
dc.subjectCrinipellis roreri
dc.titleAnálise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globaispt
dc.title.alternativeAn analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate changeen
dc.typeArtigo
dcterms.licensehttp://www.scielo.br/revistas/sp/iaboutj.htm
unesp.author.lattes3845989485833395[5]
unesp.author.orcid0000-0002-6924-835X[5]
unesp.campusUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas, Botucatupt

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