Reducing uncertainties of climate projections on solar energy resources in Brazil

Abstract

The share of solar power in Brazil’s electrical grid has rapidly increased, relieving GHG emissions and diversifying energy sources for greater energy security. Besides that, solar resource is susceptible to climate change, adding uncertainty to electrical grid resilience. This study uses satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the performance of CMIP6 models in replicating and predicting surface solar irradiance (SSR) in Brazil. The results from the most reliable models indicate an increase in SSR by 2% to 8% in most regions, with a decrease of around 3% in the South. These findings highlight the potential for increased photovoltaic (PV) yield if backed by supportive public policies while underlining the importance of uncertainty assessment of climate models.