Restoration of a riparian forest: Analysis of the effective productivity of operations under conditions of uncertainty

The uncertainties related to the operations of models for forest restoration can include edaphic-climatic conditions, seedling species and quality, technology levels of equipment and qualification of workers, precedents of operation times, and, consequently: Of effective productivity. Thus, this study aimed at ascertaining whether the adoption of seedlings produced in different containers can affect the effective productivity of forest restoration operations. A study of the times of implementation and maintenance operations of three investment projects involving active forest restoration was performed; and these differed according to the containers used to produce native forest seedlings produced in polyethylene bags, polyethylene tubes and degradable Ellepot®. The values of the times of work elements measured for the implementation and maintenance operations were named as input estimates of mathematical models, after adjustment of probability distributions to continuous sample data sets. Through the Monte Carlo method simulation, value ranges were estimated for work elements and for the effective productivity of operations. The results showed that seedlings produced in different containers influenced the effective productivity of active restoration operations; and of these the highest effective productivity of planting operation occurred in the project with seedlings produced in Ellepot®. In post-planting maintenance, the highest effective productivity occurred in the project with seedlings produced in polyethylene bags.