From territorial governance to land value realities: The mediating role of master plan implementation within urban growth dynamics

Urban expansion poses a significant sustainability challenge, requiring effective spatial planning and policy instruments to regulate spatial growth. This paper examines the relationship between territorial governance strategies and land appreciation dynamics, focusing on the impact of master plan implementation in a medium-sized Brazilian city, across three distinct regulatory stages from 2006 to 2016. Using assessed land values, market evaluations, spatiotemporal analyses, and statistical methods, our findings reveal that regulated development areas under less restrictive land use policies experienced substantially higher land value appreciation compared to those under a more restrictive phase. Notably, idle urban land exhibited lower appreciation rates, resembling those observed under stricter regulatory conditions. These results underscore the role of territorial governance in shaping land appreciation trends, suggesting that variations in spatial planning strategies can either stabilize land markets or intensify speculative behaviours. The analysis considered areas with approved subdivisions (regulated development areas) and non-developed urban areas, as a control group. Our findings demonstrate that territorial governance – encompassing both the tangible outcomes of urban growth and the procedures for implementing spatial plans – is a significant determinant of land appreciation dynamics. This paper contributes to a broader understanding of how territorial governance frameworks influence assessed urban land value dynamics, offering valuable insights into the economic dimensions of urban planning and the critical role of territorial governance in shaping urban development outcomes.