Modelled potential changes in the climate-related geographic distribution of species of the Passiflora genus in Brazil

Abstract

Passiflora cincinnata, P. setacea and P. trintae are endemic species that are important in north-eastern Brazil for their ecological, extractive, medicinal, and ornamental qualities. Climate change, and land use and land cover change are the main causes of diminishing their natural distribution ranges. The primary goal of this study was to assess the impact of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution of three endemic Passiflora species (P. cincinnata, P. setacea, and P. trintae) in Brazil. To model climate suitability, occurrence data for naturally occurring P. cincinnata, P. setacea and P. trintae populations were used to train four species distribution models using bioclimatic variables as response variables. The consensus among the resulting set of projections with current climate (1970–2000) was compared with projected climate for three future time periods: 2021–2040; 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. Our analyses indicated a reduction in climatically suitable areas for the three Passiflora species in projected future climates, with the remaining areas being concentrated in the semi-arid region in northern Brazil. The establishment of new conservation areas in the semi-arid region of north-eastern Brazil, where future climate appears amenable for the three species, is recommended to minimise losses of genetic diversity associated with the projected reduction of climatically suitable habitats.