Climate Change in the Brazilian Cerrado: A Looming Threat to Terrestrial Biodiversity

Abstract

ABSTRACT Over the past 5000 years, the predictable climate seasonality of the Brazilian Cerrado has played a crucial role in shaping the life history strategies of species and the structure of ecological communities of this global biodiversity hotspot. However, this biome is becoming hotter and drier, with a notable lengthening and intensification of the dry season. Declining rainfall results from three key factors: the expansion of the South Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone, warming of northern tropical Atlantic waters, and reduced evapotranspiration during the dry season due to widespread land conversion. The evapotranspiration drop also plays a pivotal role in regional warming and higher vapor pressure deficit. Climatic change already affects the physiology, phenology, and reproduction of the Cerrado plants, while also driving community‐level alterations, such as woody encroachment and ant–plant–herbivore interaction outcomes. Dry season lengthening is likely to reduce the biomass and alter the dynamics of microbial communities, with negative effects also extending to invertebrates and other groups. The pronounced warming reduces the amount and duration of dewfall, an important water source for insect pollinators and other animals with low vagility during periods of drought. Concerning vertebrates, the most suggested impact is the loss of specialist or endemic species, with restricted distributions, and the expansion of generalist species, lowering the levels of β‐ and γ‐diversity across the region and making communities poorer and more homogenized. In summary, climate change is actively reshaping Cerrado communities, and species' survival will largely depend on their phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary response, and dispersal capabilities. This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Observed Ecological Changes Trans‐disciplinary Perspectives > Regional Reviews